The starting pitcher: the man who's one arm injury away from screwing your for the entire season if you don't play your cards right. Also the position where a no-name guy who's been toiling around baseball for the better part of a decade can have a career year and make you look like a genius because you stumbled into him. The fun and excitement we can have with our starting pitchers. The crop this year seems a little thin when compared to past years...so let us take a look:
Studs:
1. Johan Santana - Minnesota Twins: Highs: The man whose first name sounds as if he should be from Sweden (he hails from Venezuela...yeah, go figure), was all-world in 2004, running away with Cy Young honors and cementing his place atop everyone's list for best pitchers. He just turned 26 years old, is a lefty (because God loves a lefty in baseball), and posted a 20-6 record with a 2.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 265 Ks, and only 54 walks --- the guy was a machine. He was always expected to be great, but the Twins screwed around by using him as an emergency starter and long reliver for a couple years. (Gotta love those Twins.) In 2003 he posted a 3.07 ERA, and in 2002 he offered up a 2.99 ERA --- so it's not as if this guy's just catching on in 2004. He's as good as they get these days, young, with a strong - healthy - arm, on a solid team that should win some games, with high strikeout totals, and eye-poping ERA and WHIP numbers. Do I really need to sell you on this guy? Lows: But here's something to be wary of. Through April and May of 2004, he held an ERA of 5.60 and a WHIP of 1.48. He allowed as many earned runs in July, August, and September combined as he allowed in just May. He's been known to have horrible Aprils and Mays, so if he starts off slowly again in 2005 that way, don't assume the worst. Those that assumed the worst in 2004 and traded Santana were bitten in the ass later when he pitched as good for four months to end the season as baseball had ever seen - literally. He's one of those pitchers that needs a few weeks at the beginning of the season to work out the kinks...and boy does he work out the kinks. Expect him to go in the early to late first round, and post a season of sub-3.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 250+ Ks, and 20+wins.
2. Randy Johnson - New York Yankees : Highs: The man with the world class porn star name brings his services to the Yankees. When he's not smacking around news camermen and telling them not to talk back to him (sweet guy), he's whiffing batters. He's going to punch his ticket to Cooperstown whenever he decides to retire, and posted another fantastic season in 2004 for the Arizna D-Backs, putting up a 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, with 290 Ks. His win/loss record wasn't anything to marvel at being 16-14, as the anemic D-Backs offense offered horrible run support. His batting average against in '04 was a frightening .197 (frightening for hitters, that is), which was below his career average of .213. Now with the Yankees offense behind him, people high on furniture polish fumes are saying he'll win 30 games. Ain't going to happen, but he should be good for 20+ wins. Lows: But there is cause for concern here, more than just age, but let's start there. He's 41 years old, and turns 42 before the season ends. His strikeouts per 9 innings for a full season with one team (excusing those seasons where he was injured at times of traded) in 2004 was the lowest it's been since 1992. When he strikes out 290 in 2004, it's easy to dismiss that. But this is a guy who needed 245 innings to strikeout 290 --- when he used to strikeout 372 in 249 innings (2001 in Arizona). His Ks have dropped for two consecutive seasons (not counting his injured 2003), and for a strikeout pitcher that's a warning sign. Not helping matters is the fact that he's moving to the American League, where he won't get a pitcher at the bottom of every lineup to strikeout 2 or 3 times a game. Is he still going to have an amazing season if healthy? Probably. Is he a sure thing? Not by a long shot. Mr. Porn Star Name is being drafted in the last 1st round, so if you want him, draft him early.
3. Curt Schilling - Boston Red Sox : Highs: A career 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, Schilling's coming off of a year where he was 21-6/3.26ERA/1.06WHIP/203Ks. 3 of the last 4 seasons he's won 21+ games and pitched over 220 innings and struck out 200+ batters. He moved from the NL to the AL last season (which Mr. Porn Star Name is trying to do for the first time in years this season) which affected his strikeout totals, but he still had impressive K numbers nonetheless. (But he's proof how the move from one league to the other will drop your strikeout numbers.) He still has a lineup backing him that'll rack up massive runs, which will help give him a few wins when he's not pitching his best on a given night. He should be good for another 20+wins/3.30ERA/1.10WHIP/200+K season. Lows: The ankle, the ankle, the ankle. Have you heard about his ankle? Maybe? Maybe you haven't, because it didn't get much attention. Does a bloody sock ring a bell? Bloody socks, limping, playoffs? Don't remember? (We kid.) He's well into his rehab, but with the Red Sox having so many off days to start the season, don't be surprised to see them go with a 4-man rotation and let Schilling have 2 weeks on the DL just to get his mechanics down. If he somehow doesn't start, he'll at worst miss a start or two. In 2003 he missed some time to injury, but they were freak injuries. One was his appendix bursting (plenty have been there before), and the other injury was a line drive back to the mound that broke his pitching hand. In both cases he came back to pitch fine in 2003. He'll do so again in 2004 with his ankle. If Roger Clemens (similar physiques) is any comparison, then Schilling's practically a spring chicken in life being 38 years old. Expect him to be drafted in the middle to late 2nd round. Solid value for that position.
4. Pedro Martinez - New York Mets: Highs: Petey...he's difficult to decipher. A career 2.71 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, he's already a lock for the Hall of Fame should he retire tomorrow. He had a string of seasons from 1997 to 2003 that can only be matched by very few pitchers in history, most notably Sandy Koufax. The best part of looking forward to the 2005 season is that he's making the move to the NL, which should help his overall numbers which were lackluster in 2004. His career numbers at Shea Stadium (though dated, since he hasn't been there in years): 1.17ERA/0.76WHIP/39Ks in seven games --- 5 of which were starts. Can't say it enough, but Roger Clemens proved how the jump from AL to NL can greatly improve your mediocre numbers in the AL the previous season. Lows: 2004 was possibly his worst season in his career. He posted a career high ERA or 3.90, and has only one shutout in the last four seasons. He's lost some speed off of his fastball, but he can dominate by using his other pitches. He's one of the smartest players in all of baseball (and arrogant), and can outhink most batters. That said, he's lost Jason Varitek as his catcher, and there's not a pitcher in baseball who won't tell you how Varitek can help you get a batter out. Martinez also still has the shoulder that has everyone wondering if it'll hold up. He wouldn't allow the Mets to take an MRI of his shoulder during free agency, so you know he's still hiding something in there. That said, a season of 15+wins/3.00ERA/1.10WHIP/220+Ks seems very likely if he's healthy. IF he's healthy.
5. Jason Schmidt - San Francisco Giants : Highs: The clearest example of a late bloomer if there ever was one, Schmidt really blossomed once he joined the Giants. Never having an ERA below 4.00 before he joined the Giants, and never having an ERA above 4.00 since he's joined them, Schmidt's averaged a 3.10 ERA the last four years, and a 1.15WHIP. He posted a career high in strikouts in '04, and is still only 32 with a healthy arm. A solid Giants team can easily help Schmidt post his forst 20 win season. Lows: The bookend months of the season are easily Schmidt's worst months, as in April and September in his career he's posted a 4.41 and 4.38ERA respectively, while no other month does he have an ERA above 4.00, and in 2004 that was no different. In April he posted a 5.63ERA and in September a 5.53ERA - while no other month in '04 did he post an ERA above 3.50. Don't be shocked in Schmidt pulls the same stunt again in 2005, spending April trying to work out his kinks. A season of 3.20ERA/1.15WHIP/210+Ks and 18+wins seems likely with a healthy season. He's being drafted in the mid-2nd round in a rush of quality pitchers, but he's no better or worse than any available right then.
6. Mark Prior - Chicago Cubs : Highs: (((Sigh))) Let's be positive right out of the gate right now. There's no one with more potential in their little pinky finger than most other pitchers have in their entire arm than Prior. For his career he's posted an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.18. He's one of the few starters who has a better than strikeout per inning average in their careers, and he's very Schilling-esque in his command of the plate. Simply put, if healthy, je's as good as it gets in baseball. Lows: Problem is, there must be some tribe out there in the world with voodoo dolls of Prior that they're jabbing with needles every day. Already in 2005, he has a swollen elbow, which should push him back from making opening day. He very well might miss all of April from it. 2004 wasn't his most sterling moment in his short career, as his ERA ballooned up to 4.02 and he held a WHIP of 1.35. Part of that has to deal with the fact that he was coming back from an Achilles issue which affected his pitching style, which in turn led to the swollen numbers. He's being drafted in the very late 2nd to 3rd round in a typical 12 team draft. That's very risky for a pitcher with such an injury background. If you're an eternal optimist, then go for it. Otherwise, we don't suggest you draft him unless his value drops in the next couple weeks before the season starts.
7. Roger Clemens - Houston Astros : Highs: Oh, I don't know, this kid Clemens is struggling to make a name for himself. He only has 7 Cy Young awards, and he only had an ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP 1.16 at the age of 41 and 42. He's scraping by. I mean, 328 wins and 4317 strikeouts --- he's obviously holding on to keep a job this season. Not much is known about this Clemens kid. Just a nobody trying to make a name for himself. He only had 219 strikeouts last season, and only won 18 games. You know the type --- a guy barely hanging on. Lows: In all seriousness, Clemens has one of three things going on: he's a genetic freak, he's on the 'roids, or Satan is expecting Clemens to pay up on the deal we made by giving him his first born child. Clemens will turn 43 before this season is over, and though he's been machine-like with his health, that's always a massive risk with taking on a 43 year old pitcher. His post-all-star break ERA was 3.41, up from 2.61 before the break. That's age talking by that point, tiring out. The best thing he did was move to the NL, as his Ks improved in 2004. He should still have a solid enough season, but he does come with a huge risk in having "that year" in which he implodes. We're not predicting it, we're just saying it remains a possibility. A season of 3.50 ERA/16+wins/1.20WHIP/200 Ks seems likely, and he should be drafted anywhere from mid-4th to early 6th round. Taken in the 6th round would be a solid pick.
Duds:
1. Mike Mussina - New York Yankees : Highs: It's a high point that this guy has somehow managed to swindle ESPN, the print media, and millions of fantasy baseball fans into thinking he's the Mike Mussina of his prime with the Baltimore Orioles. That takes talent, and we applaud him for that. As for the pitching high points: you may have heard he plays for the Yankees, which means -- assuming his arm doesn't get torn off because Randy Johnson was mad he looked at him -- he should win 15+ wins as a sure thing. He's a durable pitcher, having very few serious injury issues as at all in his career, and he has a career 3.59 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Lows: Though, don't be expecting those type of numbers in 2005. He turned 36 years old, and he sure as hell doesn't have Clemens' or Schilling's physique. Over the last 3 years with the Yanks he's averaged an ERA over 4.00, and he isn't a flame thrower to get himself out of jams when he needs to. While his post-all-star numbers for 2004 offered an ERA of 3.45, that was only over 57 innings of work. In his 18 starts before the all-star break he posted an ERA of 5.20. He was a train wreck away from Yankee Stadium in 2004 as well, posting a 5.25 ERA on the road, and in night games he posted a 5.11 ERA. If you can pitch Mussina only during day games or games at Yankee Stadium, you should be golden. Otherwise, why bother? Can he still post a solid all-around season again? Sure. But why bother when there are other options out there? An optimistic season of 15+wins/4.1oERA/1.25WHIP/140+Ks is possible. So is another year of horrible mediocrity.
2. Barry Zito - Oakland Athletics : Highs: The Laid-Back King of the Bay Area apparently has some incriminating photos of GM Billy Beane and farm animals, because somehow or another Beane didn't trade Zito but ended up trading Hudson and Mulder. (It is the Bay Area after all, so it's entirely possible Beane has started using mushrooms.) Zito's a former Cy Young award winner (in which Pedro Martinez is still pissed off over) with a 3.41ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his career, and he's very durable, having pitched 200+ innings in each of the past 4 seasons. He'll just be turning 27 in May of this season, so he's still young enough to turn himself around. Lows: Let's quit this optimistic BS. His ERA, WHIP, runs, earned runs, and hits have gone up each of the past two seasons, while his win total for each of the past two seasons have gone down --- to a stellar 11 victories in 2004. Now he gets to burden the idea that he's the "ace" of the A's staff in 2005, all while trying to overcome some shoddy run support with a rather anorexic A's lineup. Who doesn't want to draft this gold quality option? He's being drafted in the 8th to 9th round in many fantasy leagues, which doesn't seem like a huge risk, but why take him ahead of Matt Clement, Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle, AJ Burnett or Greg Maddux, among others? Barry still has plenty of time to turn it around, and maybe he becomes the pitcher he was three years ago again, but you can't change the fact that he'll still have a bad offense around him.
3. Javier Vazquez - Arizona Diamondbacks : Highs: Well, we hear Arizona has some great golf courses. That's got to be a high point for Vazquez. And the Phoenix Suns look like they'll be solid in the NBA playoffs, so maybe he can get some tickets for a game or two and have himself a good time. Lows: Vazquez was overrated before 2004, but going to the Yankees will swindle all "experts" and fantasy players alike. For his career, Vazquez has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. How did those numbers swindle everyone into thinking he was an ace? He has a career win/loss record of 78-78. Woo! Look out world! Capt. .500 is on the scene! Oppenents over his career have batted .260 against him, which isn't the stuff of aces. Actually, that's rather average. Very average. And now he gets to join a team that made Randy Johnson a .500 pitcher last season. What a bargain! The only bright spot is that he's moved back to the NL, so his Ks should go up, and there should be a slight improvement in both his ERA and WHIP, though nothing stellar. The most disturbing thing isn't that he crumbled like an overcooked cookie under the spotlight of New York City, but that fantasy players are drafting him in the 10th and 11th rounds. If you're going to go for a risk on a player, risk it on a guy with a sky-high ceiling, not a guy with a career 4.26 ERA and playing for a last place team.
4. Jaret Wright - New York Yankees : Highs: The Javier Vazquez Award for Biggest Swindle in 2005 created by the New York Yankees goes to.....(((drumroll)))....Jaret Wright!!! Come up here Jaret and accept your award, you silly bastard! Congratulations! Not just any pitcher can win this award. You have to be a bad pitcher who has a great season under the perfect conditions who throws a mickey in the Yankees drinks at the winter meetings in the offseason, so that way you can get them to spend big bucks on you. That takes talent, kid, and it shows you've got it. It also allows you to be drafted by a myriad of uppity fantasy baseball players who assume any player who plays for the Yankees is a future hall of famer. You've got that, kid! You're clearly the winner of the 2005 Javier Vazquez Award, so feel free to go out there and prove us all correct! Lows: Listen to us clearly, because if there is any bit of advice that you should listen to us about it is the following: The Atlanta Braves pitching coach, Leo Mazzone, could make your 85 year old arthritic grandmother who has had two hip replacements, is blind in one eye, and has sores on the bottom of her feet an all-star caliber pitcher. There is no one --- NO ONE --- better in the game when it comes to helping a pitcher through a season than Leo Mazzone. He proved it once again with Jaret Wright last season. Wright has a career 5.09 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while opponents have batted .272 against him. Please feel free to re-read those stats. Those stats include his great 2004 numbers averaged in. But Leo Mazzone performed his typical magic and made Wright into a pitcher who over 2004 posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Wright became a free agent, took the money from the Yankees and ran. He went from the NL in '04 to the AL in '05 and left Mazzone. How do you think this is going to turn out? He makes Javier Vazquez look like Pedro Martinez, circa 1999. It doesn't matter that fantasy players are drafting him in the 13th or 14th rounds --- they're delusional. Stay away. Unless the Yankees hire Leo Mazzone tomorrow, stay away.
Sleepers:
1. Jeremy Bonderman - Detroit Tigers : Highs: He's just 22 years old, was a highly touted first round pick in 2001, and had a 2004 with a lot of upside to it. He only posted a 4.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, but he also struck out 168. Post all-star break he posted an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.10 --- that opens your eyes a bit more, now doesn't it? It doesn't hurt that he gets to pitch in Comerica Park for half of his starts, either, or that he averages just under a strikout per inning pitched. He compares very favorably to Rich Harden of the Oakland A's, and now that he has two seasons under his belt, we're expecting good things in 2005. Expect a season of 3.90ERA/15 wins/1.25WHIP/170+Ks. Not bad for a pitcher that can be had anywhere from the 11th to 14th round in a typical draft. And why would you draft Jaret Wright again??? Lows: He's still young, and we can't stress that enough. Surprisingly, he has slightly better numbers away from Comerica Park than he does in it, but we doubt that anomaly will continue much longer. Left-handed hitters have had the better of Bonderman, smacking 2/3 of all HRs he allows, and getting more than a hit per inning against him. He'll have to improve with that, but we fully believe he will. Don't be surprised if he starts off slowly in April and May, as many young pitchers do. But if you don't draft him, you might be able to trade for him on the cheap from a pissed off --- and ignorant --- manager in your league.
2. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals : Highs: Another former first round gem from the MLB draft, this time in 2002. Greinke is only 21 years old and posted a 2004 season of a 3.97 ERA and a WHIP of 1.17. Though many people don't think of it as so, Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City is statistically one of the worst parks for hitters, which will suit Greinke owners (and the Royals themselves) just fine. It's actually one of the lowest ranked parks for homeruns allowed and batting average. (If you're rather dim, then let me help you out here: that's a good thing if you have Greinke on your team.) He was the poor man's Mark Prior with regards to the buzz generated around him in the minors, but he certainly lived up to expectations last season. Lows: He really only had one horrible month in '04, but when we say horrible we mean horrible. In July, he posted an ERA of 6.61 and a WHIP of 1.44. If he can avoid months such as that, then we're talking freakishly good stats for an entire season. He's not going to post many victories with the Royals backing him up, so 10+ wins would be a great outcome, and he's not the biggest strikout pitcher on the planet either, with about 6.8 Ks per 9 innings. Not bad, but not lights out stuff. But he has great command for such a young pitcher, hardly walking anyone, which will work wonders for your WHIP. But as we noted with Bonderman, he's still young, so there's always that risk, but he's being drafted in the 13th to 14th rounds, so he's a very nice risk to take. And why would you draft Jaret Wright again????
3. Brad Penny - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: He turns only 27 years old in May of this season (seems ancient after talking about pre-schoolers Bonderman and Greinke, but 27 is still young for a pitcher), and he started to finally become the pitcher everyone believed he'd be in 2004 before a nerve injury in his elbow sidelined him. For his career, he's posted an ERA of 4.03 with a 1.31 WHIP, but in 2004 he posted a 3.15ERA/1.22WHIP while averaging just shy of 8Ks per 9 innings. Now spending his days in that pitcher's haven of Dodger Stadium, an ERA and WHIP in line with his 2004 numbers are very easily attainable. Lows: He's always had some injury risk in his past, though in his 5 seasons he has two full seasons and the other three seasons he pitched 2/3 of. He'll start the 2005 season on the DL, but with no hiccups occuring in his rehab, he should be back rather quickly, maybe missing only the first couple weeks. He's been impressive in that rehab, so the future looks bright. With him being drafted anywhere from the 14th to 17th rounds in a typical draft, he could be an amazing steal. Draft him and stash him on your bench or DL for a few weeks and reap the rewards.
4. Wade Miller - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Another injured player with huge potential. A career 3.87 ERA/1.31WHIP, Miller averaged 15 wins a season from 2001 through 2003. A fraying of his rotator cuff caused him to call short his 2004 season, but with rehab similar to what Pedro Martinez partook in a couple years ago, Miller's avoided surgery and the Red Sox target him for a May comeback. He's averaged better than 8.5 Ks per 9 innings of work over his career and surprisingly has allowed very few HRs for a power pitcher, only 17 in 187 innings of work in 2003. If he can come back healthy by late May, a season of 12 wins/3.50ERA/1.25WHIP/130+Ks is possible. Considering he's being drafted anywhere from the 17th to not even being drafted in some leagues, that's another huge steal. Draft him and stash him on your DL or bench and look like a genius come September...Lows:...if he can get himself healthy. He's already pitching off a mound in spring training, and as we said above, there haven't been any setbacks, but it's still a tender situation. He'll have to battle Bronson Arroyo (or possibly Tim Wakefield) for the 5th starters spot for the Red Sox, but it looks like the brass on Yawkey Way would rather use Arroyo in the 'pen if Miller can come back healthy, even if Arroyo is lights out early in the season, so as not to wear on Miller's arm. As for stats, he did have to pitch in the popcorn kernal popper known as Minute Maid Field for much of his career, and he did fairly well there, so the transition to Fenway shouldn't be as marked as it is for other pitchers. His WHIP is average at best, mainly due to walks. But considering his stats in the other four major categories, you'll just have to live with it. He's a great value for 17th+ round in your draft.
Deepers:
1. Cliff Lee - Cleveland Indians : Highs: If you ever have a child, a son, and want to amke sure they make good money in their lives, don't make them become some horrible doctor or wretched lawyer --- make them become a left-handed pitcher in baseball. Hell, left-handed relievers can post horrible numbers and pitch for years, making millions of dollars. And left-handed starters are so rare, that the Yankees invested in getting the biggest one out there (Mr. Porn Star Name himself, Randy Johnson), knowing what an advantage it is to have one. Cliff Lee is one. 2004 was not his greatest year ever, only his 3rd year of action. In 2003 he posted 3.61ERA/1.17WHIP numbers, which fell to 5.43ERA/1.50WHIP in 2004. Sometimes you have to fall back before you can step forward again. The high point for Lee? Averaging 9Ks per 9 innings. That, and he plays for one of the hottest young teams that should raise some eyebrows this year. With a lineup including such young long-ballers like Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, Lee can win 15+ games this season. He's still only 26 years old, so he still has time to adapt. Lows: In each successive month in the 2004 season from May on, Lee posted a higher ERA, ending up with a freakish 7.94ERA for September. (He did pitch one game in October, which he pitched well in.) He's still rough around the edges, but the Indians don't have some deep rotation with veteran pitchers which would force Lee out if he struggles again. 2005 might not be the year Lee puts it all together, but it bears watching. It might be. Might. Considering that he's not even being drafted the the vast majority of leagues, just keep an eye on him and snatch him up if he shows he's more in 2003's form. Of course, if you want some cheap Ks, Lee can be your man nonetheless.
2. Nate Robertson - Detroit Tigers : Highs: He's the poor man's Jeremy Bonderman, who himself is a poor man's Rich Harden, so that's why Robertson is a "deeper" instead of a "sleeper." He was once a Florida Marlins pitching prospect (not a bad pedigree), and has only played one full season --- 2004 wih the Tigers. He struck out just shy of 8 batters per 9 innings in '04, and he's only 27 years old. Pitches in Comerica Park (thank you, God) and the Tigers are moving on up in the world --- these aren't your Tigers from a couple years ago (though, not much can be as bad as that team a couple years ago). Lows: The second half of the '04 season was downright horrible for Robertson, with him posting a 5.79ERA and 1.48WHIP, and overall his ERA and WHIP of 4.90/1.40 for the entire season wasn't comforting either. He's rough around the edges, but he still can evolve into a nice pitcher. For example, in his only three starts on turf last season, he was outright scary for opponents, posting a 1.53ERA/1.08WHIP with 19Ks in 17.2 innings. In May and June combined, he posted an ERA of 3.40 and a WHIP of 1.14 and 56 Ks in 70.2 innings. Those show he can string together a solid stretch of dominance, but he can just as easily fall apart. He should go undrafted, but he's another pitcher you want to keep your eye on for '05. It's difficult to assume which Robertson we're going to get, but a season of a low 4.00 ERA/1.35WHIP/165+Ks and 12 to 15 wins is possible.
3. Erik Bedard - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Very highly thought of in the O's farm system, he posted an '04 season of 4.59ERA/1.60WHIP with 121 Ks in 137.1 innings of work --- a little less than 9 Ks per 9 innings. The O's can post a ton of run support for him, which should help him win an extra game or two that he probably wouldn't have. Only 26 years old, he's been lights-out this spring training (but don't value that too much). 2005 could - could - be a solid season for Bedard, another pitcher that should go undrafted in your league. Lows: His WHIP is more frightening than Oprah Winfrey without her makeup, but it really can only go down from where it's been. He walks way too many batters (71 in 137.1 innings), over 5 per 9 innings, but that should improve as he progresses as a pitcher. Keep an eye on him. A season of a low 4.00 ERA/1.40 WHIP/190+ Ks/14 wins is possible. That's not bad for a fill in pitcher, especially for some extra Ks.
Other Qality Options for Starting Pitcher: (let's try to be brief-er about this...we'll try...)
1. Roy Oswalt - Houston Astros : Highs: A career 3.11ERA/1.17WHIP pitcher, Oswalt came off a 2004 season where he finally posted a 20 win season. If not for a groin-pulling-filled 2003, he would've cracked out "studs" column this season. A season of 20+wins/low 3.00ERA/1.20WHIP/200+Ks if healthy is possible. Lows: Astros don't have as solid a team or lineup as 2004, Berkman will miss a month of the season at least, and Bagwell and Biggio aren't getting any younger. And Roy's has to deal with that Minute Maid Park. Poor guy. Oswalt's going to have to win some games on his own, but he has the talent. Expect him to be drafted in the 4th to 6th round. If he falls to the 6th round, don't pass on him. If he's healthy, that's a huge steal.
2. Oliver Perez - Pittburgh Pirates : Highs: Perez was the winner of my annual "Guy-No-One-Was-Paying-Attention-To-In-Spring-Training-Who-Was-One-of-The-Best-In-The-Game-For-The-Season" award. Oh, I don't know...maybe it was the 2.98ERA and 1.15 WHIP in '04. Maybe it was the 239 Ks in 196 innings -- about 12Ks per 9 innings. Maybe it's that he's still 23 years old. I don't know. Lows: Only the Pirates (and the D-Backs) could make a dominant pitcher a near .500 pitcher. His record was only 12-10, through no fault of his own. Don't expect the greatest winning percentage. He also has been experienced some shoulder stiffness this spring, so he might have a rough April to work through some stuff. Plus, he's still so young, he might regress in 2005 before flourishing again. That said, expect a season of a low 3.00ERA/1.20WHIP/240Ks/14 wins, and for him to be drafted in the 6th or 7th round, and if he pitches like he did in '04, well, [inch yourself a few dozen times because you got the steal of the draft.
3. Jake Peavy - San Diego Padres : Highs: Peavy and Perez should do a traveling road show. Both guys are still 23 years old and dazzling hitters. Peavy gets the better team and the better park backing him up, but he has a groin injury that might linger all year in 2005. Posting a 2004 season of 2.27ERA/1.20WHIP with 173 Ks in 166.1 innings -- just over 9Ks per 9 innings --- and winning the ERA title in the NL...yeah, he's another nobody. Lows: Just like Perez, he's still so young that he might regress before he flourishes as well as he did in 2004, and this groin injury worries us. A groin injury screwed around with Oswalt for 2003, ruining a perfectly good season for him. We're not saying Peavy will have the same occur for him, but it reamins a possibility. Keep it in mind. A healthy season of nearly the same season as Perez (with a few less Ks, maybe an extra win or two) is expected, but he's being drafted anywhere from the very late 2nd round to mid 6th. Late 2nd is much too high for a pitcher with one dominate season udner his belt, but if he falls to the late 4th or early 5th, he's a nice pick.
4. Ben Sheets - Milwaukee Brewers : Highs: The 2.70ERA and 0.98WHIP, the 264Ks in 237 innings, the miniscule 32 walks (fewer than one walk per game started), he finally put all his amazing talent together in 2004. Lows: Only the Brewers (and the Pirates and the D-Backs) would make a pitcher like Sheets a sub .500 pitcher. He had a 12-14 record, and might not improve too much on that in 2005. His WHIP and ERA might inch up ever so slightly in '05, but not by any huge standard. He's being drafted anywhere from the mid-2nd to the 5th round. Mid-2nd is much too high when you could draft Schilling or Scmidt for example, picthers with more years of dominance under their belt. But if he falls to the 4th to 5th round, that's when you want to snap Sheets up.
5. Carlos Zambrano - Chicago Cubs : Highs: A 2.75ERA/1.22WHIP in 2004, Zambrano had 188 Ks in 209.2 innings and had 16 wins. The Cubs still have a solid lineup, which means another 16+ wins are possible. He's a career 3.25ERA/1.32WHIP, and he's posted a few solid seasons in a row now, despite that he's only 23 years old. Personally, I'd feel safer drafting Zambrano over Peavy or Perez, even though they posted better numbers than Zambrano, simply because he's proven he can do it over multiple seasons. Lows: There's obviously a pox against Cubs pitchers, and if I'm Zambrano, I'm avoiding all black cats and ladders. Wrigley Field isn't the greatest pitcher's park, especially when the wind blows out, but Zambrano can be so dominant, that that shouldn't be a massive concern for you. A season of 16+ wins/2.80ERA/1.20WHIP/200+Ks is attainable in a healthy season. He's being drafted anywhere from the mid 3rd to mid 5th rounds. I can justify the 3rd round pick, though that is slightly high. If you see he's next to being drafted, you might want to grab him while you can, but if it looks like he can drop another round, take the risk.
6. Tim Hudson - Atlanta Braves : Highs: It feels odd to mention Hudson and Braves in the same sentence, but I'm not complaining. Remember what we wrote about Jaret Wright and Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Now, take away Wright and swap in Hudson. Now feel free to begin to drool and have a dazed smile on your face. A season of 2.90ERA/1.20WHIP/175+Ks and 20 wins in a healthy season is possible. Lows: Hudson somehow has swindled people into thinking he's a massive strikeout pitcher, when he really is just an average K pitcher. In 2004 he only struck out 103 in 188.2 innings --- not dazzling stuff. But he's gone to the NL, and kids, we know that that means --- he gets to face a pitcher 2 to 3 times a game! Woo-hoo! Expect some of the best numbers in Hudson's career in 2005 under Mazzone's watch.
7. Josh Beckett - Florida Marlins : Highs: Besides Mar Prior, there might not be another pitcher with as high a ceiling at Beckett right now. But, unlike Prior, Beckett's healthy right now this spring. He's posted just under 9Ks per 9innings in 2004 and just over 9Ks per 9 innings throughout his career, and his OBA was a miserly .235 last season. The Marlins are stocked for a solid offense in 2005, so a season of 15 wins should be a strong possibility, with a 3.50ERA/1.25WHIP/ and 180+Ks if healthy. Lows: His career high for innings pitched is only 156.2, and that was in '04. Blisters are always an issue with him, but let's keep our fingers crossed that he's got that fixed. He's being drafted in the 7th to 8th round, and if he's healthy he's a huge steal for fantasy players in those rounds.
8. Kerry Wood - Chicago Cubs : Highs: Let's be positive right now, despite some lingering injury questions in spring training right now. Wood is a guy with a career OBA of a freakish .214. He has a career 3.63ERA/1.26WHIP, and betters than 9Ks per 9 innings. The Cubs still have a great lineup, so he can easily crack 15 wins, Lows: Kerry, Kerry, Kerry. Bursitis in the shoulder in this spring training? Sure, he should start the opener, but geez, can any Cubs pitcher stay healthy? (Watch out, Zambrano, you're next.) Wood has never won more than 14 games in a season in his career, despite all the hype around him. He still has a huge ceiling, but every year that passes without that one jaw-dropping season, is another year he drops a little on our chart for best pitchers. Always an injury risk. Expect him to be drafted from the 5th to 7th rounds. If healthy, a 2005 season of 15 wins/3.60ERA/1.20WHIP/200Ks. Great numbers....IF he can be healthy all season.
9. Rich Harden - Oakland A's : Highs: Another 23 year old blossoming at this exact moment, just like Peavy, Zambrano, and Perez. He posted an '04 season of 3.99ERA/1.33WHIP, but he was outright filthy at times. In July and August he posted a 3.25ERA/1.18WHIP, before crumbling in September. Expect more of the July/August and less of September throughout 2005. It also doesn't hurt that he plays in Network Coliseum, with it's 2,000 feet of foul ground to help a pitcher out. Lows: He's being counted on to step up without Hudson and Mulder being around (with Zito supposed to help out as well...hahahaha), and many young pitchers wouldn't be able to handle that stress. The A's also have a horrible lineup (with all due respect to Eric Chavez, especially), but Harden is about to break out --- one of our picks of 2005. Expect conservative estimate for 2005 to be 3.40+ERA/1.25+WHIP/200+Ks/15wins, but expect him to be drafted around the 8th round. Huge value for that round. Great steal, and he might be a hell of a lot better than those numbers, too.
10. Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays : Highs: One mediocre year with injuries and everyone forgets what you once did. For Halladay, that would be a 2002 and 2003 that averaged a 3.09 ERA over those two seasons, and a WHIP of 1.13, 187Ks, and 20+wins. So, 2004 he was injured a bit, and everyone's jumped off the Halladay bandwagon...thanks, I'll take that spot you've opened up. He's healthy and only going to turn 28 years old in May. Thanks, I'll take him. Lows: Well, he doesn play for the Blue Jays, so that means his team faces the Yankees and Red Sox a combined 38 times in 2005, and the Skydome (or whatever the hell they're calling it these days) isn't the friendliest pitcher's park, AND he was injured in 2004. Puh-leaze. He overcame all that in 2002 and 2003, and he's healthy now...can we say that enough? Expect a season of 17 to 19 wins/3.15+ERA/1.15+WHIP/180Ks...and he's being drafted in the 6th and 7th round. He might be one of the biggest steals in 2005.
11. Mark Mulder - St. Louis Cardinals : Highs: He's moved to the NL...NL...NL. Rejoice. His hip seems to be healthy finally (((keeping fingers crossed))), and he's got a lineup behind him in St. Louis that has 7-8-9 hitters that are more vicious than Oakland's 3-4-5 hitters half the time. He still managed 17 wins in 2004, and he has a chance to be a true ace once again in '05. Lows: Oy....Oy, oy, oy. 2004 was as big of a headache season as I've seen in a long while. Pre-all-star break: 3.21ERA/1.19WHIP...post-all-star break: 6.13ERA/1.59WHIP, and only 5 wins in the second half of the season. He was as big a mess as you could have on your hands. Part of that was his hip and other mild injuries lingering upon him, and he seems to have shaken that, but THAT is NOT the way you want to see a pitcher finish a season. (How about that 8.10ERA/2.03WHIP in September?) But he's gone National League on his. Rejoice! Amen! There is a God! He's healthy! If healthy, expect a season of 18+wins/3.45ERA/1.15WHIP/160Ks. He's being drafted in the 4th to 6th rounds. A 4th round pick seems slightly risky based on how he finished 2004, but he can be a top 10 pitcher. If you're a gambling type, go for it. Otherwise, see if he falls to the 6th round to get a better value.
12. Carl Pavano - New York Yankees : Highs: This is the "highs" section, so we'll be high. He's shagged Alyssa Milano, among many other hotties. God bless him. He was a prized free agent in the off-season, and rightfully so. He had only a 3.00ERA and 1.17WHIP with 18 wins in 2004. Now with the Yankee lineup backing him up, what's to stop him from posting 20+ wins? Lows: 4.21ERA/1.34WHIP --- those are his career numbers. Not as great as you'd think, huh? His OBA is actually above-average being .271. Not good. His career win/loss record is 57-58. Hmmm. He only had 139 Ks in 222.1 innings in '04. And he's moving to the AL this year...oh, and it just happens to be under the broiling spotlight of New York City, specifically the Yankees. Now, let's think --- what other small-market pitcher made his debut with the Yankees as a prized free agent in 2004, and had a huge bust of a season? Oh, that'd be none other than Javier Vazquez. Can Pavano buck that trend? Yup. Is he going to be anywhere within 500 miles of posting his 2004 numbers with the Yankees in 2005? We doubt it severely. Expect a season of 4.00ERA/1.25WHIP/120Ks/16wins. He's being drafted anywhere from the 3rd to 9th round --- depending on whether you've got someone in your league drinking the Yankee Kool-Aid. If he falls to the 9th round, he's not a bad pick, but sweet mother, don't draft him in the 3rd round and pass up Zambrano, Hudson, Oswalt, Peavy, Perez, etc.
13. Matt Clement - Boston Red Sox : Highs: He somehow avoided the jinx afflicting Cubs pitchers, and he got out before the bug jinx attacked him. He posted a 2004 season with a 3.68ERA/1.28WHIP with 190Ks in only 181 innings. That's a better than 9K per 9inning mark, which is what you want to see. With the Red Sox lineup behind him, expect him to post a career high in wins, probably 15+. Lows: He has a career win/loss record of only 69-75, including a 9-13 record in 2004, despite his solid ERA and Ks. No wonder he ditched the Cubs. Opponents only batted only .229 against him in 2004, and only .243 in his career, so it's not has if the guy doesn't have some nasty stuff. His biggest fault is that he's a bit wild, over his career walking a batter every other inning almost. But his strikeout numbers can't be ignored. His 3 year average is the follow: a 3.80ERA/1.24WHIP/192Ks/.224 batting average against. He's being drafted anywhere from the 5th to 9th round. the 5th is too high, and 9th is too low. If he's fallen to the 7th round, jump on him, and if he's still hanging around in the 9th round...Jesus, what are you waiting for?
Other Pitchers to Consider:
1. A.J. Burnett - Florida Marlins : Another of the stable of Marlines pitchers who always seems to have some lingering health issue. Posted a 3.30ERA/1.19WHIP in 2002 in a full season, with 203 Ks in 204.1innings. If he's healthy, he's a beast. We're talking 12+wins/3.45ERA/1.15+WHIP/200+Ks, and he should be drafted in the 9th or 10th round...good value.
2. Chris Carpenter - St. Louis Cardinals : Pitched by far his career year for the Cards in 2004, but was always an underachiever with the Blue Jays 2004 was better than expected, but a season of around 3.80ERA/1.18WHIP/150+Ks/13+wins seems about right. He's being drafted around the 11th to 12th round...the farther he falls, the greater value he's offering. But 12th round is great value as is.
3. Greg Maddux - Chicago Cubs : Getting up there in age, and showing some rust the past two seasons, but a lock in 2005 for an ERA around 4.00/1.18WHIP/15wins/130+Ks. A workhorse, a solid pitcher to have as a 4th guy on your staff. Being drafted in the 10th to 12th round. Little risky because of age, but he's a horse, and that's what you want him for.
4. Odalis Perez - Los Angeles Dodgers : Absolutely no run support in 2004, he can't get that little support again, can he? Seems to have great or horrible seasons back and forth. That means he's due for a bad season, but we'll say he bucks the trend. Expect a season of 3.65ERA/1.15WHIP/130Ks/13wins, and he's being drafted in the 12th to 13th round. Good value.
5. John Smoltz - Atlanta Braves : Once a dominant starter in the 1990's, he arm broke down by 2000, missed the entire season, and has been a dominant closer since 2001. No expected to be a starter for 2005, you have to wonder if his arm can hold up. We'll be positive and say he posts a season of 3.65ERA/1.20WHIP/190Ks/15wins. He's being drafted in the 9th to 11th rounds which is risky with his injury past as a starter, but if healthy he's a huge steal
6. Freddy Garcia - Chicago White Sox : Another "No-Respect" guy. He's got a smooth delivery, so he's another rock for 200+ innings on your staff (don't undervalue that...it can be as valuable and pay off as much as any official fantasy stat). Had 3.81ERA/1.22WHIP with 184Ks in 2004. White Sox have a solid team to win some games, so expect about the same this year. He's being drafted in the 11th to 13th rounds...which is an undervalue, especially with his upside. Draft him and be happy.
7. Mark Buehrle - Chicago White Sox : It looked like he had a broken fook, but apparently he's just a sensitive guy. Awww. But he's a career 3.76ERA/1.24WHIP pitcher who had a similar season in 2004 with 165 Ks. He's been a sure thing for 200+ innings, like his teammate Garcia. His draft value might fall to the mid-teen rounds on injury fears, but grab him and take the solid numbers. The guy's never been on the DL in his career.
8. Brad Radke - Minnesota Twins : Posted a career year in 2004 (just happened to be a contract year, so no doubt it was a coincidence, right?), but he's still great to have on your staff for his WHIP/and 12+wins. 8 of the last 9 seasons he's pitched 200+ innings. Figure a season of 3.90ERA/1.18WHIP/140Ks/13wins. He's being drafted in the 12th to 13th rounds. Nice pick.
9. C.C. Sabathia - Cleveland Indians : Still hasn't put all his talent together (move away from the buffet table, C.C.), and he has a strained oblique muscle right now that might force him to miss the first couple weeks - he's on the DL now. But he's still only 24 years old, and has amazing talent if he'djust put it together. (stop...eating...C.C.) Cleveland's hot this season, so figure a year of 3.80ERA/1.30WHIP/150Ks/15 wins in a solid season - less if he remains on the DL long. (We're hoping not.) He's being drafted around the 13th round, and is a gamble to some extent, but a good gamble.
10. Livan Hernandez - Washington Nationals : 200+ innings for the past 5 seasons, and has had two solid seasons back-to-back. We're still Doubting Thomas' here, but let's be optimists. Let's give him a season of 4.10ERA/1.35ERA/12wins/180Ks. He's being drafted around the 14th round.
11. Kelvim Escobar - Los Angeles Angels : Another guy who has played under his talent level for years, but posted a solid 2004 season with a 3.93ERA/1.29WHIP/191Ks. Angels still have a good team, so a 15 win season can be had in Escobar if he can turn the corner. Espect a season of 4.00ERA/1.25WHIP/180+Ks/15wins. He's being drafted in the 11th to 13th round, which can be a little risky, but can be worth it.
12. Bronson Arroyo - Boston Red Sox : Finally had his first full season as a starter in 2004, posting a 4.03ERA/1.22WHIP/142Ks/10 wins. He might lose his starting spot to Wade Miller when Miller comes back for the Sox, but if he keeps the job, he should have another season very similar to 2004, with more wins. He's being drafted in the 15th to 17th round, which is fantastic value.
13. David Wells - Boston Red Sox : Fat and old, and still not slowing down. Posted a 2004 season of 3.73ERA/1.14WHIP. Should still post a similar season, and isn't someone to cower over playing in the Boston spotlight (those years with the Yankees were no problem.) Not a strikeout guy, but doesn't even average a walk a start. Draft him for wins/ERA/WHIP. He's being drafted anywhere from the 14th to 18th round. If taken in 18th round, that's great value.
Others to Consider Drafting as Late Fill-ins:
RandyWolf...Dontrelle Willis...Al Leiter...Kevin Brown...Matt Morris...Ted Lilly...Andy Pettitte...Bartolo Colon...Jake Westbrook...Joel Pineiro (though he's struggling...but he has the talent)...Jon Lieber...Brandon Webb...Dough Davis...Jeff Suppan...Brian Lawrence...Adam Eaton...Tom Glavine...Jason Marquis...Mike Hampton...Jerome Williams...Noah Lowry...Orlando Hernandez...Horacio Ramirez...Tomo Ohka...
