If your league is just your typical, run-of-the-mill league, you'll have three general outfield spots to fill. In theory, you could fill those three spots with three left fielders, such as Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, and Hideki Matsui. If you're in some leagues, you'll have to pick a player based upon his position - so one right, left, and center fielder each. Of course, that makes it all a bit more complicated for the drafter. For simplicity's sake, we'll just cover all outfielders in general with the analysis, and at the end I'll rank my top 10 for each outfield position in brief.
Studs:
1. Vladimir Guerrero - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: They don't get much more productive than Vlad, and he's a nice guy to boot. A career .325 hitter, he's batted above that career average for the past three seasons. The last seven seasons he's averaged 37 HRs. If you discount his injured 2003 season where he only hit 25 HRs, his average bumps up to just shy of 40 HRs per year. If you discount his injured 2003 season, his RBI average since 1998 is 118. Including his injured 2003 season, he still averages 112 RBI. He once was a threat for 40 steals a season until his back injuries flared up, but in '04 --- while still feeling the effects of the back problems --- he stole 15 bases. The Angels are a steal-happy team, so if Vlad's back can clear up, it's easily possible that he'll approach 30 steals again. A season of .330+/40+HRs/120+RBI/20+steals/110+runs is easily attainable. Lows: The biggest - and really only - low for Vlad is is back. If it flares up, he can be sidelined for weeks at a time. Anyone who has had back problems can appreciate the pain he'd have to play with. That said, he played through some bouts of pain in 2004 to post an MVP season. It doesn't matter the park or the state of the lineup he plays in, since he played years with the Expos and posted obscene numbers there as well. Unlike Barry Bonds, the only juice Vlad is on is Tropicana. He's a top 5 pick in almost any style of draft, and his back should be fine. A simple, easy choice to make.
2. Carlos Beltran - New York Mets : Highs: Will turn only 28 years old in late April, and entered his prime practically the moment he stepped on the field. His career average is a bit lower than Vlad's, averaging only .284. That can mainly be attributed to two things Vlad has over Beltran in hitting: Vlad doesn't strikeout as much, and Vlad's a bad ball hitter. But Beltran has played in some horrible lineups with the Royals, and when he finally got the chance to play in a packed lineup with the Astros in the playoff run last year, he was a freak - albeit, it average was slacking a bit. Now off to the hot spotlight that is New York City, Beltran shouldn't suffer too badly. The Mets still don't have the greatest lineup, and Shea Stadium can slay a mediocre hitter --- but Beltran isn't that. A season of .280+/30+HRs/105+RBI/35+steals/100+runs should be a sure thing as long as he's healthy. Lows: Some "experts" are afraid that Beltran will be tamed by Shea stadium, or that the recent jinx of newly acquired Mets players stinking up the joint will continue with him. Beltran's too much a talent of falter. He's averaged over 100 RBI 5 out of the last 6 seasons (the one season he didn't was when he had some injuries back in 2000), and he's averaged just over 29 HRs a season the last four years. That's not to mention the average of over 37 steals the past four seasons as well. These "experts" are selling Beltran short. A top five pick in a typical draft --- I'd take Vlad over Beltran just because in 4 of the 5 categories Vlad's a slight improvement over Beltran.
3. Manny Ramirez - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Let's just say this: Manny's not stealing many bases for you. Forget that fact, and then look at the rest of his numbers, and then you'll realize why you'll never have to worry about Manny's numbers while he's playing for you. A career .316 hitter, he's bettered that average in 4 of the last 6 seasons. The past 10 seasons (repeat: 10 seasons), he's averaged 120 RBI and 37 HRs. The last time he had fewer than 100 RBI was in 1997 --- that's including 2002 and 2000 when he has some injuries --- and still had over 100 RBI. That's what you call steady. He's a right handed hitter playing at Fenway (think: short porch in left), but he's one of a very few in baseball who can hit with power to all fields. He's playing in the best lineup in baseball that's set records for the past two seasons, and will possibly have David Ortiz hitting behind him in the order. Not a bad set-up to have. Lows: Ummm....hmmm....he doesn't steal bases? Unlike Vlad, he doesn't have any lingering question about an injury. Unlike Beltran, he's not moving into a new pressure cooker of a playing situation (he's already there playing in Boston). He's just good. He's still only 32, too! Unless he suffers some mid-season injury (knock on wood that it doesn't happen), he's as sure a thing as you get in baseball. A past batting champion as well. You can't lose. And he's a late first round draft pick...not bad either.
4. Barry Bonds - San Francisco Giants : Highs: I'm going to say this first, so you know my feelings: I believe Barry's a juice-head. All the facts point to it. People can say, "Steroids don't give you hand/eye coordination" --- but steroids do allow you to have higher muscle fiber reaction time. Why do you think Olympic sprinters use them? By having a higher muscle fiber reaction time, you can wait those precious few fractions of a second on a pitch, which allows you that precious time to see if it's a fastball or a changeup of a pitch, and that allows you time to select your pitch --- which in turn allows you to post some fine batting average numbers. Over Bonds' first 10 seasons in baseball, he averaged a .281 batting average. That includes some very good and some not-so-good seasons of average. But, since Barry's blown up in size, say, the past 5 seasons (when your average player should be declining because of age), he's averaged a .341 average. Coincidence? His first ten seasons he averaged 29 HRs and 84 RBI. His last five seasons he's averaged 52 HRs and 109 RBI. Pure coincidence, I'm sure. All hitters in their very late 30s and early 40s suddenly break out, right?..........That said, if Barry can somehow keep pulling this off, you've just seen his last 5 season averages for HRs/RBI/avg. They're obscene. If you're in a league that counts walks and OBP, draft Bonds and you'll win those two categories hands down, as managers around baseball make a mockery of the game by walking Bonds in the first inning with no one on base. Lows: He does turn 41 years old after the all-star break this year. I don't know when his deal with the devil expires, but by drafting him at 41, you're taking a risk based solely upon age. He's coming off knee surgery, and he's still building up strength in it this spring training. And if you think he hasn't found a new steroid to get around baseball's weak testing policy, then you have to figure his numbers will drop. Bonds is a classic high rish/high reward player. He can pay huge dividends or he can hurt your team if he becomes injured. Are you a gambler? Do you listen to Kenny Rogers theme song while you're drafting? If you are, then expect Bonds to be drafted very late 1st/very early 2nd round.
5. Bobby Abreu - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: A career .305 hitter, he's hit right around that within 5 points the past three seasons. 3 of the past 4 seasons he's had over 100RBI and 30 or more steals - including a career high of 40 steals in '04. The past five seasons he's averaged 25 HRs. He plays in a fine hitter's park with some nice bats around him in the lineup, and he's only just celebrated his 31st birthday. He was a bit of a late bloomer with his power numbers, but always had the average. Lows: Some "experts" wonder if the 40 steals were an anomaly to some extent. But he did steal 36 bases in 2001 and 31 in 2002, so it's not as if it was a freak year. Do I believe he's a sure thing for 40+ steals again in '05? No. But I also never thought Halle Berry would win an Oscar in my lifetime. But Ms. Berry was capable of pulling it off, and so is Abreu once again. He hasn't had many injury issues to speak of whatsoever in his career, so he's a safe bet to remain healthy (but there's s first time for everything). A season of .300+/25HRs/100+RBI/30 steals is a definite possibility. He's a late 1st round pick most likely in many leagues, and that's a fine value.
6. Gary Sheffield - New York Yankees : Highs: 7 times in his career he's had over 100 or more RBI, including 5 of the last 6 seasons - averaging 108 RBI for those 6 seasons - while averaging 35.5 HRs a season over those 6 years. A career .298 hitter, he's playing in the homerun happy Yankees lineup, and should post another solid season. If he gives you 10+ steals, that's just a bonus. Lows: His steals (which used to be good for 15 or so a year) dropped to 5 last year - while also getting caught 6 time last year. Maybe his days of giving you a few steals are over. He is 36 years old, so it happens. His career is spotted with injuries every couple of seasons, but he has been healthy the past two seasons, having his last DL stint in 2002. His shoulder slowed him down toward the end of '04, but he played through some amazing pain to play out the season. He's already had some shoulder stiffness and hip issues this spring, but he has shown to be able to play through it. A slight injury risk comes with drafting him. But a season of .295/35HRs/120RBI/110+runs is easily attainable. He should be drafted around the 3rd round, and if healthy, he offers solid value.
7. Jim Edmonds - St Louis Cardinals : Highs: Some "experts" would disagree with me over Edmonds be classified as a "stud" --- but let's look at the numbers, shall we? Since joining the Cardinals 5 seasons ago, he's averaged over 36 HRs a season, including 42 in '04. During those same five seasons he's averaged a .297 average, 98 RBIs and 102 runs. And if your league includes slugging pct. as a stat, then Edmonds postd his highest season average in that in 2004, with a .643 average. The Cards still have one of the best lineups in the NL, and still play in a solid park for hitters - especially for hitters with such a violent upper cut swing like Edmonds. Lows: His time with the Angels in the 1990's was marred with injuries, but his time with the Cards has remained relatively injury-free, except for a short issue in 2003. He plays all out all the time, so the risk of him banging up a rib or hip diving for a ball that he really shouldn't be diving for is always a possibility. And being 35 years old, those nicks and bruises are going to add up if he keeps it up. A season of .300/35HRs/100RBI/100runs should be Edmonds' '05 if he's healthy. A 5th round draft pick would be about typical for where he should be taken. Very nice value for that round.
Duds:
1. Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves : Highs: He's stopped playing in the outfield! Rejoice! The miserable days of Chipper playing the outfield and injuring himself are over! Hallelujah! There is a God! Lows: Besides the low point that is Chipper's haircut (what's up with the no sideburns of any length, man?), 2004 was not kind to the Chipster. A career low batting average of .248, to go along with the lowest OBP and OPS since 1995, and the lowest slugging pct. since 1997. He also posted his lowest runs and doubles totals ever, and had his lowest RBI total since 1995. Admittedly, he missed a few games due to injury, so that can affect the overall totals for HRs/RBIs/doubles/etc., but that doesn't excuse hit batting, slugging, and on-base averages. He also had 16 more strikeouts in 2004 in 16 fewer games than in 2003. That's a stat of someone struggling. If it wasn't for a scorching August in '04, his season would have even looked more grim. He holds more value now that he's back at third base, but he needs to prove he still can be the Chipper of old before he's back in the good graces of this fantasy player. He's being drafted in the 5th to 7th round, which seems much too high for someone who posted such a year as he did. A season of .285+/28HRs/90+RBI is attainable if he's healthy. He can be better, no doubt, but for 5th round value, you should be expecting better.
2. Sammy Sosa - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Well, he's out of Chicago, which was a strained relationship at the end to say the least. (The very least.) He's in a lineup with Baltimore that can put runs up on a team in a hurry, and he gets to swing for the not-so-distant fences at Camden Yards for 81 games in 2005. Lows: Someone go to the liquor store and buy this man some wine so he can steal the cork. Stick some 'roids back in his ass. He needs it. His homerun, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS, runs, walks, and hits have all declined for three straight seasons. (Please feel free to re-read that last sentence to count how many categories he's dipped in.) He's 36 years old, and being a Dominican, some have wondered and whispered for years that he's possibly a year or two older. Everyone and their mother believes he took steroids, and if baseball's serious (hahahaha) about catching people taking the juice, then he might have even lost that edge, if he hasn't lost it already. He's being taken anywhere from the 7th to 10th round, but I don't know that I can recommend him beyond using him as a backup outfielder for your team, and definitely not in the 7th round. A season of .250/25+/85+RBI is attainable if he's healthy. MAYBE.
3. Steve Finley - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Woo! Everyone jump onto the Steve Finley bandwagon! Just don't run me over, because I'm not getting on it. He hit a career high in HRs in 2004, 36 of them. Wow! You can't get that just anywhere! Lows: Let's see, everyone's so high on Finley because....umm....why? Here's a guy who just turned 40 years old. (Strike one.) He's only had 100 RBI once in his career, and that was back in 1999. (Strike two.) He's changing leagues for the first time since 1990. (Strike three.) Three of the six months of the 2004 season he batted .225, .184, .195. (Strike four.)His career average against lefties is over 30 points lower than against righties. (Strike five.) And did I mention he's just turned 40 years old? Hey, if you want to jump on the Steve Finley bandwagon, I'm sure there's space. That's great, enjoy it. But don't be shocked if he either: A.) gets injured --- B.) has a steep decline in numbers --- or C.) spends half the season batting below the Mendoza line. He'll be drafted around the 10th to 15th round, but I say look elsewhere for a younger hitter on the rise instead of an older hitter who's on the decline, no matter what his HRs say. HRs are always the last thing to go.
4. Ken Griffer Jr. - Cincinnati Reds : Highs: Um, well, how far does your memory go back to? Because Junior hasn't played a full season since 2000. Since then he's hit 63 homers...which is a good thing if he did that in one season. But four seasons? Oh, wait, this is the "high" section, so I'm supposed to be saying what's good about him. Umm...give me a second here...there's got to be something...well, he started off on a tear in 2004 by hitting 20 HRs for about the first half of the season. That's good right? Lows: So, of course, he went ahead and snapped off his hamstring after that. Way to go, Junior! That'll show everyone you aren't an injury risk! Listen, Junior isn't so "junior" anymore. Gone are the days of the "kid" --- because he's 35 years old now. The last 7 seasons his batting average has been below his career average. He's averaged just shy of 16 homers the past four seasons because of those injuries. He's a mess. Let's face it. He's being drafted around the 13th+ round, but that's still too risky a time to take him. Why people are drafting Junior ahead of Lance Berkman (while injured, he has at least put up some numbers the past few seasons) or Justin Morneau (who should be damn good in '05) is beyond me. Can Junior put together a healthy season? Sure. And Paris Hilton can keep her legs closed, too. But it doesn't happen often, does it? It's not even worth it to predict his numbers for 2005 because you can't be certain he'll play more than a couple months. But if you've got a few drinks in you and are pining for the mid 1990's, go ahead and draft Griffey. Otherwise, stay away.
5. Luis Gonzalez - Arizona Diamondbacks : Highs: Once hit 57 HRs in 2001, and had five straight seasons from 1999 through 2003 of 100+RBI. A career .286 hitter. And, uh, yeah, that's about it. Lows: Gonzo's a nice enough guy, so it hurts for us to call him a "dud," but he is. Let's look at Gonzo's HR totals from 1997, his lone year with the Astros: 10, 23, 26, 31, 57, 28, 26, 17. If we drew you a line graph, you'd see a slight resemblence to Mount Everest there, with his 57 HRs being the peak, and two steady slopes on either side of it. But then you say, "Well, yeah, sure, but you just said he had 5 straight seasons of 100+ RBI ending in 2003. That's not so bad, right?" Right. But, let us see why else he's a dud: he plays for the Diamondbacks, one of the worst scoring teams in baseball in 2004. It's almost comical to a certain extent at how inept they were at scoring. When a team can make Randy Johnson have an almost .500 record through almost no fault of Johnson's own, then you know they can't score runs. Other than adding Troy Glaus (hello, disabled list!), the offense still lacks much of a punch. Gonzo's also 37 years old --- 38 before the season's over. Oh, and his elbow was worked on last year, ending his season short. People in the D-Backs front office are holding his breath that he doesn't snap his arm off. It's just not worth it. There are better options available, younger options, options without an elbow ready to be flung into the infield when you make a play at the plate. Skip Gonzo. Nice guy, but skip him. Let him be someone else's headache.
Sleepers:
1. Aaron Rowand - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Coming off just his first real full season,(Played 126 games in 2002, but only had 302 ABs), and only 27 years old. In 487 ABs in 2004, he hit .310/24HRs/69RBI/94runs/17steals. Given the extra playing time with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee gone, he should have a solid chance to flourish. And with word coming out of the White Sox camp that the Sox are looking to runs the bases wild in 2005, he might creep up even higher the steals category. Lows: Doesn't help to see Maggs and Lee leave, even if it opens up some extra playing time. Those bats would have helped protect him, but now it comes down to Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynzski with Rowand taking over. That might lead to some hiccups at times. He's also a relative late bloomer, having not really broken out until 26 years old. But his talent level is very high. Versus lefties or rights --- day or night ---home or away --- he averaged a better than .300 BA in all categories in '04. It also doesn't hurt that he hit 38 doubles in that time as well. And ended up the season hotter than he started, which is always what you want to see. A season of .305/25+HRs/95+RBI/25 steals is easily attainable, and is a nice steal with him being drafted in the 10th to 13th rounds.
2. Preston Wilson - Colorado Rockies : Highs: From 1999 through 2003 he averaged 28 HRs, and had a career year (as they always do) in 2003 in his first season with the Rockies. People are already forgetting that in '03 Wilson had 36HRs/141RBI/.282 avg/43 doubles/94 runs. 2004 was a wasted year with 202 injury-filled ABs. Rehabbing and strengthening his knee in camp this spring, if his knee can remain healthy - and he can avoid other injuries - he can post a season of .270+/30HRs/100+RBI in 2005. Lows: He's the poor man's Ken Griffer Jr. these days, and he wasn't the sweetest swinging hitter with the Marlins before he got to the Rockies. He showed signs of brilliance with the Fish, even posting a 30/30 season in 2000. But everyone becomes a new hitter with the Rockies - just look at Vinny Castilla. (Check out the numbers in the third baseman category below for Castilla.) But he is an injury risk, as 2004 was not the first time he's faced injury. But he can be had in the mid-to-late teen rounds in your draft, and by that point you might be taking risks on a player anyway. The longer he sits on your draft board, the nicer a pick he becomes.
3. Garret Anderson - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Might seem odd to include him as a "sleeper," but after an injury filled season, people are forgetting what Anderson put up for years before. (Of course, the laid back way Anderson plays might put you to sleep, so it fits in nicely with this category.) In the four seasons before 2004, Anderson averaged 30HRs and 120 RBI, with 46 doubles and a .299 average (which also happens to be his career batting average as well.) So why are people forgetting about him? It's one thing if a guy just sucks up the joint (hey, Sosa!), but it's another thing if there was a serious injury issue at hand to limit the player. Lows: The guy was a machine to play 155+ games a year for his career until 2004, when an arthritic back condition flared up and threw him into a tailspin. But he finished the season fairly strongly, and he's on medications to limit the arthritis --- so why are people forgetting him anywhere from the 10th to 15th rounds? And somehow Chipper Jones is a hot commodity, and Garret Anderson isn't? How is this? Even with his bad back, Garret still hit .301 in 2004. Makes no sense whatsoever why people dismiss him so late. But if he's going to fall that far in your draft, feel free to snatch him up a round or two earlier and get yourself a steal. A season of .305/25HRs/100RBI/100 runs with a healthy year seems assured.
Deepers:
1. Craig Monroe - Detroit Tigers : Highs: He's played 3/4 of each of the past two seasons, posting 23HRs/70RBI and 18HRs/72 RBI in each of the past two seasons. His doubles, average, and hits all improved with him playing in the same amount of games (128) from 2003 to 2004, while his strikeouts decreased. He's 28 years old, and has a strong chance to flouish with the Tigers. Lows: He's struggling to get the full-time position in center field, as apparently manager Alan Trammel isn't sold on him yet. (Jesus, Trammel, get your head out of your...sorry.) And playing in Comerica Park, no matter how far they move the fences in, is still a tough park to play in. That park alone easily will knock off 5 homers from his year end total. But keep an eye on him if he gets the full-time job. He's got potential, and he'll probably go underdrafted in most leagues. He can be a cheap, though very good contributer to your team.
2. Wily Mo Pena & Austin Kearns - Cincinnati Reds : Highs: They really could be considered "sleepers" instead of "deepers," but considering their pasts and how they're set up in Cincy, they fall a little to "deepers" level. Wily Mo just turned 23, and Kearns will be turning 25 in May. Kearns has been hanging around Junior too much in the Cincy outfield, catching the voodoo spells that someone's playing on Griffey. But let's look at the bright side: in only 292 at-bats in 2003 he hit 15HRs and had 58 RBI. Minus the steals, he's the rich man's Adam Dunn. How so? Because he can have a higher batting average than Dunn, while still walking and striking out a massive amount, while also hammering the ball. As forWily Mo (he of the Jimy Williams disease --- that in which you're missing a needed letter for your first name, in this case an "L" for Wily), in 336 at-bats in 2004, he smacked 26 HRs and drove in 66. He doesn't walk nearly as much as Dunn or Kearns, yet he also enjoys the novelty of striking out his fair share. But he's a masher as well...and did I mention he just turned 23? Lows: It's a crowded situation in the Reds outfield, but the way everyone's falling off from injury, there's no doubt someone will get some playing time. Just who? And who will become injured? If I'm a fantasy player, I'm crossing my fingers that Griffey bites it again so Austin and Wily Mo can play full-time. Assuming, of course, they can stay healthy as well. (Catch the drift here? Lotso injuries to be had with the Cincy boys.) As with Griffey, it's almost worthless to try and wager their stats for '05, because of playing time and injury issues. If they get the time to play, they both can be massive, cheap picks. In the case of Kearns, he's coming off the board around the 12th to 14th rounds, while Wily Mo (probably the odd man out in the Cincy OF), probably won't go drafted in most leagues. But don't forget him. It won't be the last you've heard of Mr. Mo.
Other Quality Options in the Outfield:
1. Carl Crawford - Tampa Bay Devil Rays /// Juan Pierre - Florida Marlins : Highs: It's the battle of the fleet-footed Floridians who play center field. (Say that 10 times fast.) Let's start with Crawford: his stock rose faster last year than tech stocks in the 1990's, mainly because the dreaded "sophmore slump" avoided him and hit his teammate Rocco Baldelli. The 23 year old hit .296/11HRs/55RBI with 104 runs and 59 steals. That's where his value comes: steals and runs, with a solid average. He's about an 80% base stealer, which is good to see. You don't want to see a base stealer dip below 75%, or especially 70%. It becomes counter-productive then. Those 59 steals in '04 was up from 55 in '03. He's the best of the best at stealing bases, and there's no stopping him from cracking 60 easily if he wants to. As for Pierre: He's a little older, coming in at 27. In 2004, he posted .326/3HRs/49RBI with 100 runs and 45 steals. That was down from 65 steals in 2003. That said, they're a bit clone-like, don't you think? Crawford is the bigger fish in the draft market for a few reasons, those being age, some power, lack of minor injuries that Pierre attracts, and a better pct. at stealing bases. He's also more likely to lead the majors in steals at the end of the season. That's why Crawford is a border-line 1st round pick, but more likely an early 2nd round pick, while Pierre can be had in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Pierre has a stronger lineup around him, but Crawford is more apt to hit a few extra HRs and steal some more bases --- so what's your preference? Lows: For Pierre, the biggest concern has to be the percentage of times he was caught stealing in 2004. He was barely a 65% base stealer, which is not what you want to see. He needs to improve upon that in '05. Another issue is having Luis Castillo with him in that Marlins lineup, possibly forcing Pierre not to steal as often as he could. While he hasn't missed any time the past two years to injury, he's always complaining about this boo-boo or that. He's already complaining about a stiff leg in spring training this season. It shouldn't be anything to worry about, but it's something to be aware of. And he has 7 career HRs, three of which came in '04. Be ecstatic if he jacks 4 in '05. It's a glarinf weakness with Pierre, but you draft him for steals/runs/ave --- not his power. As for Crawford, he still is awfully young. He's still at that age where players can regress a little before they bounce back. Should he? Doubtful, but it remains a possibility. He also plays in a much weaker lineup with the D-Rays than Pierre has around him with the Marlins. That can affect his run totals, and limits any few RBI totals he'll get. He has more pop in his bat than Pierre, so he can be good for at least 10+ HRs, which might not sound like much, but that might be 10 more than Pierre hits. Expect a season for Pierre of .310+/2HRs/45RBI/110runs/45+steals, and as for Crawford - expect a season of .295/10HRs/58RBI/100 runs/60+steals. Side note: If you want the poor man's Pierre or Crawford, there is Scott Podsednik. His value is rising as the off-season and spring training rolls on. He plays in a lineup in flux with the White Sox, and he's coming off a season where he stole 70 bases, but batted a horrible .244, with 12 HRs and a measly 39 RBI. (If Pierre is driving in more runs than you, you know you're not a huge power threat.) But the Sox are committed to run the bases wild in '05, so despite his average, you still can score some quick points in the steals category by having him on your squad. A season of .260/8HRs/45RBI/90 runs/60+steals is an easy possibility.
2. Miguel Cabrera - Florida Marlins : Highs: The 2003 playoffs put Cabrera on the map, as he smacked around some quality pitching throughout the Marlins run to a title. In 2004, his pre-season value was somewhere between sleeper and obscene as people were worried he'd bust, yet others were hugely high on his eligibility at multiple positions, especially 3B. This season, he's available in only the OF. Oh, well. We can't have everything, I guess. In 2004, he was only great, that's all. Batting .294, with 33HRs, 112 RBI, 101 runs, and even a soild OBP to boot. Oh, and he's going to turn 22 right after the season starts. (Go ahead, re-read that. Yup, he's still 21 years old when the season begins.) And the Marlins should be humming this season with Pierre, Delgado, Mike Lowell, and even Luis Castillo and Alex Gonzalez in the mix. Delgado should be a strong influence on Cabrera maintaining his momentum in 2005, and every young hitter could use that help to maintain their hitting. Lows: He's a little weak against lefties, batting only .262 vs. .302 against righties. He also slacked up a bit in September of last year, batting only .229 in the stretch run. Part of that can be due to fatigue at playing a full schedule for the first time in his major league career. Otherwise, the guy's a gem in the making. Expect him to go anywhere from the late 2nd to early 3rd round in your draft, and expect a season of .300/35HRs/120RBI/110 runs.
3. Ichiro Suzuki - Seattle Mariners : Highs: Oh, no! I included Ichiro's last name (or first name, or last name - twice removed, or...), which seems like a crime to do these days the way "experts" don't bother using it. People are forgetting his full name, for crying out loud. Well, Mr. Suzuki had another typical Mr. Suzuki year, batting a career high .372 with 8 HRs, 60 RBI, 101 runs, and 36 steals. That was with an aging, lackluster, injured Seattle lineup around him all year, and a horrible team going nowhere. Imagine how it looks now when Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre move into your neighborgood? Mr. Suzuki might have even offered a hearty chuckle beyond his typical slightly amused facial expression when he learned he got those two bast batting behind him. But by this stage of knowing Mr. Suzuki, it's almost a sure thing how to assume what his season will be: he'll play 157+ games because he keeps himself in freakish shape. (Hey, Bonds, try having Ichiro's trainer for once - a trainer who isn't offering his clients "fish oil" to rub on their bodies.) He'll bat about .330 and smack around 8+HRs. He'll have 60 RBI and will get 110+runs. And since it doesn't seem like he's interested in stealing 56 bases as he did in his "rookie" season, he'll still go for about 35+ bases. Not bad. Lows: Mr. Suzuki was barely a 75% base stealer in 2004. That's about in tune with his career average, but if you want a better guy in that department, go for Crawford over Mr. Suzuki. He's not the biggest HR threat in the world, though he has the ability to hit 20+HRs if he cared to lose a bit on his average. But he prefers his average be higher, and I agree. Other than that...the guy's good, what can you say? I wish more Americans played baseball like Mr. Suzuki does. He's an early 2nd round draft pick in most leagues. Draft him and enjoy.
4. Johnny Damon - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Posted career highs in HRs and RBI in 2004 (though just barely, with 20HRs and 94RBI), and had an overall well balanced season, with 123 runs, 19 steals, and a .304 average. Some doubt he'll even come close to his 20 HRs and 94 RBI, but as we noted earlier, those weren't career highs that were off-the-charts for him. His previous career high for HRs was 18, and his previous career high for RBI was 88. So, see, not bad then, huh? He didn't even post career highs in steals, average, or runs, so I don't see the brouhaha over Damon having a career season. It appears that it was just an overall good season for him. So, what to make of it? Well, he'll now have Edgar Renteria batting behind him (nice), as well as old standbys David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez as usual (really nice). As we've said elsewhere, it's still the Red Sox lineup that's broken records for 2 seasons in a row. This is the same lineup that broke the "Murderer's Row" 1927 Yankee lineup's slugging percentage, and set records for extra base hits. And Damon's leading it off. Lows: Damn you, Theo Epstein! You and your sabremetrics and the desire not to run! Well, Jesus hasn't been stealing as many bases of late, stealing only 19 in 2004 (and having only a 70% steal pct.). But with Renteria in the fold, some believe Damon might be asked to try an extra swipe every now and then, which all us fantasy players will appreciate. He's mildly better against righties than lefties, but still hit almost at a .280 clip against lefties in '04. He's a much better hitter at Fenway - as many Red Sox are - batting .330 versus .280 on the road. But...wait...what's this? This is Jesus' contract year? Hey, now, we know how that usually turns out, right? Unless you're an uptight player (ie: Derek Lowe in '04), you usually have a career year in your contract year (ie: Adrian Beltre in '04). Expect a season of .290+/18HRs/90+RBI/25 steals/120runs, and expect him to be drafted in the 5th to 6th round. Solid value for where he's taken, and if he steals 30+ bases, he's a great value.
5. Hideki Matsui - New York Yankees : Highs: If there's any confusion left from last year, the good Matsui plays for the New York Yankees --- not the Mets. Let's not have any more tragic confusions by anyone high on Jim Beam and meth and trying to draft their fantasy teams. At times, poor Hideki gets overshadowed by Arod, Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Sheffield, Giambi, and whoever the Yankees buy to be their newest starting pitcher. But look at the numbers for 2004: .298/31HRs/108RBI/109 runs with 34 doubles and an OBP of .390. In his two first seasons in the major leagues, he's never missed a game. Some worried that Hideki's power numbers were a little lower than expected coming over from the Japanese league, with him only hitting 16 HRs in 2003. But unlike Mr. Suzuki, Hideki's a power hitter --- and that takes time to adjust, something we saw in 2004. With that extra year under his belt, playing in a power-laden Yankee lineup, and having a short porch in left field in Yankee stadium, there's no reason to worry about him struggling to duplicate or improve his 2004 numbers. Lows: His average against lefties is nearly 50 points lower than against righties, a .265 to .314 comparison. If he were to somehow struggle even more in '05 with that, it could lead to Joe Torre pinch-hitting for Hideki late in games. But we're not there yet, and even then it'll only marginally effect him. Pre or post all-star, he's equally consistent, which is always a plus. A season of .305/30+HRs/110RBI/110runs seems more than likely. He's be drafted anywhere from the 5th to the 10th round. If he drops anywhere beyond the 6th round, he becomes a fine, fine steal.
6. Carlos Lee - Milwaukee Brewers : Highs: Poor Carlos, he's the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball. He can't get no respect. (Except he doesn't have the crazy eyes that Dangerfield had, and not nearly as funny. Least not from what we hear.) He's averaged 25 HRs every season he's played, and 31 HRs the past two seasons. Those past two seasons he's averaged 106 RBI and had a .298 average. But the White Sox ship him away to the Brewers, and worst - fantasy players who should be coked up on stats are forgetting Lee. Sometimes he's falling beyond the 11th round in a fantasy draft --- which is mildly insane. Expect him to be drafted between the 7th and 11th round. Lows: He didn't live up to his potential in his very first years in baseball, which burned some. Many expected 2004-type seasons from day one in his career. Besides that, Lee hasn't done much to be worthy of the idea that he's a bust. Against rights or lefties, day or night games, grass or turf, indoors or out, pre or post all-star break --- he's been consistent. He was smacked in his wrist by a pitch this spring training, but X-rays have been negative. He should be fine for posting a season of .290+/30+HRs/100RBI/95+runs/10+steals.
7. Moises Alou - San Francisco Giants : Highs: Coming off one of his best seasons as a 38 year old, Alou's taken his services to be with his dear old dad in San Fran. 2004 brought a career high in HRs (39) and runs (106), and still impressive numbers for RBI (106) and average (.293). He looked to be on the downswing of his career before 2004, but contract years will help you perform a little more consistently, huh? He's a career .300 hitter with 5 of his last 7 seasons giving him over 100RBI. Lows: He was a much different hitter at Wrigley Field than he was away from it, batting .339 at home and .247 on the road. Well, guess what? His home games aren't at Wrigley anymore. They're at SBC Park, or whatever the hell they're calling it out there these days. That's not the greatest park to be a long-bomber in --- though surprisingly fine for average and runs. Don't expect Alou to bust out with another 39 HRs this season. Maybe not even 29. He is turning 39 haflway through this season, so...proceed with caution. He's being taken in the 8th to 11th rounds of a typical draft. That's a little high for an older guy moving to a new park. Expect a season of .285+/25HRs/90+RBI/95+runs.
8. Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers : Highs: A career .307 hitter coming off an injured 2004 season. From 1999 - 2003 he averagwed 32 HRs and 118 RBI with a .312BA, with about 100 runs sprinkled in. No matter lefty/righty, home/away --- the guy was a machine against whomever he faced. 2004 brought knee surgeries galore (okay, only two), and he's off to the Tigers to see if he can bounce back. Comerica Park isn't making any baseball player swoon, but Maggs should do just fine. If healthy, expect a season of .310/28+HRs/105RBI/90+runs. Lows: He didn't go the typical route in fixing his knee, instead going over to Europe and having a doctor perform his art work there. (I don't get it either.) The Tigers don't have as powerful a lineup as the White Sox have had at times in recent years, so that may temper his RBI and run totals, and Comerica will probably take a couple HRs away as well. But if his health can hold up, Maggs is the type of player who still provides no matter the situation.
9. Corey Patterson - Chicago Cubs : Highs: Only 25 years old, he played his second full-time season in '04, putting up career highs in runs, HRs, RBI, and steals. Hitting 24 HRs and stealing 32 bases makes him a nice threat to approach 30/30 possibilities. Lows: Strikes out a bit too much, with 168 Ks in '04, and his average dipped to a very mediocre .266. He needs to improve upon that to jump up the ranks of fantasy outfielders. The Cubs have lost Alou and Sosa, but their aging bats - especially Sammy's aging corked bat - wasn't going to help much anyway (Alou still has some gas, though...). But the Cubbies still have Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Nomar Garciaparra to hammer the ball, and they should pick up some slack. Expect a season of .275/30HRs/80+RBI/35steals. Expect him to go in the 7th to 9th rounds of a typical draft, which is solid for his production.
10. Vernon Wells - Toronto Blue Jays : Highs: Turned 26 years old in the off-season, and is now the focal poitn for the Blue Jays offense with the departure of Carlos Delgado. Has all the tools to be something special. His 2002 numbers: 23HRs/100RBI/.275avg. His 2003 numbers: 33HRs/117RBI/.317/118runs. His 2004 numbers: 23HRs/67RBI/.272. With the Blue Jays thinking of running a little more this season, Wells is thinking of cracking 20 to 30 steals. Can he do it? He swears he can, but what do you expect him to say? I say he steals at least 20, but over 30 is a stretch right out of the gate. Lows: A bit of a hiccup last year with his overall numbers. True, he did miss a few weeks with an injury, but that still doesn't excuse the relative steepness in which he fell off. We'll chock it up to the "sophmore slump" showing up a year late due to customs at the Canadian border. He plays a good deal better at home in Skydome (or whatever they've changed its name to now), with his average being 49 points higher at home, and his power numbers up at home as well. Don't expect his 2003 numbers, especially with regards to his RBI and runs, but he can still improve a good deal on his average and HRs. Expect a season of .280+/30+HRs/95+RBI...and if he doesn't back down from trying it, we'll give him the 20 steals.
11. J.D. Drew - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: 2004: This Date In History: J.D. Drew Remains Healthy for an Entire Season, in a Feat of Unexpected Proportions!!! Okay, so we're busting on Mr. Drew a bit here, but 2004 was his first season remaining entirely healthy for once really. At the same time, it was the first chance we got to see what type of numbers he could produce if healthy --- and they're not bad: 31HRs/93RBI/.305/118 runs. He's only 29 this season, so he's just in his prime 4 of the 6 months of the '04 season he had 16 or more RBI --- a nice total to have per month. He's always had the potential, still does. Lows: But who wants to wager he ramains healthy for another season without a problem? If he's made a deal with the devil, then maybe. Otherwise, you have to wonder how lucky we were to have 2004 with Drew. It doesn't help that he's left the Braves to go to the Dodgers and their fantastic pitcher's park. In his career at Dodger Stadium in 17 games he's a .263 hitter with 3HRs and 10 RBI. Not bad when you average that out for 162 games, but his average would suffer. Expect a season of .285+/25+HRs/95+RBI/12+steals. - IF healthy. He should be taken around the 10th to 12th rounds, which is great value should he remain healthy. It's a gamble with his health, but for round value, you can't complain.
12. Brian Giles - San Diego Padres : Highs: The 34 year old is a career .299 hitter. He was once a quiet monster in Pittsburgh, putting up 35+ homer/115+RBI/.300 seasons. But once fantasy players caught onto him, it seemed Giles got some performance anxiety. 2003 and'04 have both been solid, if not spectacular seasons for Giles, with 20 and 23 homers respectively. Part of that can be blamed on Petco Park in San Diego, part of it age, and part of it...who knows? Lows: San Diego has a fine lineup - not bewildering, but underrated a bit - yet it's always injured. Giles best days might - might - be behind him, but it's more than likely he has another few good, solid seasons in him. He hits a few more HRs on the road than at home (obviously, with that park), but a season of .290+/25+(maybe 30+)HRs/95 RBI/95 runs is possible. 9th to 12th round is where he's being drafted --- and if you can get him towards the 12th round, that's fantastic value.
Other quick options:
1. Jason Bay - Pittsburh Pirates : 411 ABs in 2004 brought 26HRs/82 RBI/.282 numbers. He's still only 26, and should have a nice season in 2005. He was a hot prospect in the minors before he got the full-time shot to play in '04, so this is expected from him. 13th round is where he's being drafted, and a season of .280+/30HRs/90+RBI is easily attainable with a healthy season.
2. Jose Guillen - Washington Nationals : The man's got issues, that's pretty clear. When a playoff team drops you from their team just as they're about to play in the playoffs and doesn't want your bat, you're a pain in the ass then. He's always had the ability - but never given the opportunity that much - to play. Now with a sure thing of a full-time job with the Nationals, hopefully Frank Robinson can give Guillen some nap times. The Nationals are no prize, but Guillen can put up a 30HR/95+RBI/.290 season if healthy or not suspended.
3. Andruw Jones - Atlanta Braves : Coo-coo-cachoo, where have you gone, Mr. Joo--oo-oo-nes. Once thought to be the next Griffey Jr. or maybe a poor man's Willie Mayes when he was a kid, he's simmered down in his skills in recent years. Only a .268 career average, and underperforming at the plate for his skills. But a season of .270+/30+HRs/110+RBI/100+runs/20 steals still exists in him. He just needs to find it, or want it, sometime. Even though he's been around for ages it seems, he's still only 28 right after the season starts.
4. Lance Berkman - Houston Astros : Still recovering from off-season knee surgery, he should be good to go in May sometime. Usually his power numbers drop off in the second half of the season while his average usually remains high. Great at drawing a walk and OBP - if your league uses them - he should still be highly productive in an alright Astros lineup. If back by mid-May, expect a season of 20+HRs/80+RBI/.315avg.
5. Dave Roberts - San Diego Padres : Hitting leadoff for the Fathers, GM Kevin Towers believes he'll steal 60 bases in 2005. Not a power threat, and seems to catch a groin or hamstring injury once a year to miss a couple weeks. Still a great guy for some cheap steals, runs, and not entirely crippling your average.
6. Torii Hunter - Minnesota Twins : He's said it himself before: he cares more about his fielding than his hitting. Damn you, Torii! He has the hitting skills to be something nice, but we'll have to settle for just good. Great option as a #4 outfielder for your team, or an emergency #3. Good for a 20/20 season with a .280+ average and 85 RBI.
7. Matt Lawton - Pittsburgh Pirates : Never has had many full seasons, either because of depth chart issues or injury, he had one of his best seasons in 2004. Should be playing full time for them, and would be great as a #4 outfielder for you. 20/20 potential still with 100 runs and 75+RBI and a .275+ average.
8. Larry Walker - St. Louis Cardinals : Always injured, but all the talent in the world. Back is bothering him now, not to mention past experiences with every other injury. He's 38 years old, too. If healthy, a .300+/25+HRs/90+ RBI season is possible. But the guy's never healthy. Not for long, at least.
Top Ten by Postion:
Right Field:
1. Vlad Guerrero
2. Bobby Abreu (if he steals)
3. Gary Sheffield (if healthy)
4. Ichiro Suzuki
5. Miguel Cabarera
6. Magglios Ordonez
7. Aaron Rowand
8. J.D. Drew
9. Brian Giles
10. Lance Berkman (would have been 4th or so if healthy)
Notable snubs: Sammy Sosa, Shawn Green,
Center Field:
1. Carlos Beltran
2. Jim Edmonds
3. Carl Crawford
4. Johnny Damon
5. Juan Pierre
6. Corey Patterson
7. Aaron Rowand (qualfies in many leagues in both RF and CF)
8. Vernon Wells
9. Scott Podsednik
10. Garret Anderson (if healthy, he could shoot up to top 5 on this list)
Notable snubs: Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones
Left Field:
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Carl Crawford (qualifies in both LF and CF in many leagues)
3. Miguel Cabrera (qualifies at both RF and LF in many leagues)
4. Barry Bonds (injury and 'roids keep him from #2 spot for now)
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Aubrey Huff (not mentioned in the outfielder category, but qualfies here. Try him for the IF though.)
7. Adam Dunn (top 3 if he can increase average and steal bases in '05)
8. Carlos Lee
9. Moises Alou
10. Jason Bay
Notable snubs: Chipper Jones (God, use him at 3B, please), Lance Berkman (same as for RF), Jose Guillen
