Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Deepers, Studs and Duds for Third Base...

Now we're cooking with gas. Talent of all designs exists here at the hot corner. The list alone for studs could ramble on, so I'm going to limit it solely to the bona fide versions, and include the rest at the end. If you screw up picking a solid 3rd baseman, you might as well quit before you even start. Got it?

Studs:
1. Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees : Highs: I'm not going to sit here and pretend I like the guy, because I don't. He has a fraudulent personality (a la, Kobe Bryant, though without the whole, "Bend over, baby..." thing going on that Kobe has), and word from some MLB players: he's a dick. That said, I can remove myself from my personal feelings about the man and offer the obvious: he offers some of the best all-around numbers for a hitter in all of fantasy baseball. Once a 40/40 man, four times he's hit over 40 homeruns, and twice has hit for 50+ homers. Seven straight - and 8 of 9 - seasons he's had over 100RBI. He already has over 200 steals in his career, and showed a comeback for the stolen base last season, swiping 28 after a decline in recent years for it. Early reports out of spring training have him batting second in the Yankee lineup, which should give him a chance to steal a few bases once again. Still a sure thing for at least 35 homers (if he's having a bad year), and over 100 RBI, with solid all-around numbers. Lows: The batting average has declined every year since 2001, from .318 to .300 to .298 to .286 in 2004. (How many other fantasy "experts" will tell you that about around between their slobbering and praising him without looking at the facts?) But he still hasn't celebrated his 30th birthday. (He'll crack that this coming season after the All-star break.) Though known as a 40/40 man, he did that only once - and only came close to doing it that one time he actually did do it - in 1998. His best overall power numbers came in his three Rangers seasons in one of the better hitter's parks in baseball. Those three seasons offered him his only two 50+ homer seasons, and his 3rd highest homerun season as well. It's not a coincidence that once he left Texas his HR total dropped a bit to 36 last year with the Yankees. That said, I'm just trying to show the dents on Arod's otherwise flawless facade. Odds are he'll be drafted first in your fantasy draft, and that's perfectly acceptable. He only qualifies at 3B this season, which lessens his value from last year - but still a good grab - obviously. Now, if only Jason Varitek will pop him in the mouth again...

2. Scott Rolen - St. Louis Cardinals - Highs: Seems like Rolen's been around for 20 years, but he celebrates his 30th birthday just after opening day. Once known as a constantly injury-plagued player, he's shaken that stereotype a bit the past few seasons, while also being "reborn" a bit with the Cards. In 2004, Rolen had a career year for him, with highs in average, homeruns, and RBI. Still fairly young, still an all-around hitter, still in one of the most potent lineups in baseball. It doesn't hurt to have Pujols and Edmonds in the same lineup as you. Lows: Woooo, can you say "swan dive"? Because that's what Rolen did last year. Now, you might be saying, "Didn't you just say he had a career year in 2004 - and now you're saying swan dive? What gives?" If you said that, you're catching on, my young padawan. If not, you've got a lot to learn. Rolen was hotter than the Sahara for April, May, and June. July he was mediocre. August he really his the skids. And September he limped home like one of those marathoners that takes 8 hours to run the race. 80 of his 124 RBI came before the all-star break. His average pre-break: .339. Post-break: .276. He even had a bit of an injury come the tail end of the season. (Oh, no!! The stereotype lives!) He's better than most third basemen, but odds are he's not going to have a career year again in 2005. A season of .290/28HRs/105RBI with maybe around 100 runs should thrill you. He should be drafted around the late 2nd to early 4th round, depending on the whims of those drafting.

3. Adrian Beltre - Seattle Mariners : Highs: I wasn't going to put him in the studs column, much to the surprise of most everyone, no doubt, But I'll do it with a giant asterisk. First, the good: he's going to turn only 26 right after opening day. He's been in the majors since 1998. He had career highs across the board practically. HRs, RBI, runs, average, doubles --- he was a machine in 2004 for the Dodgers. He's switched to the new-look Mariners who have Richie Sexson on board to go with Boone and Ichiro. Lows: Here's my problem, and where I create my giant asterisk of note: While always believed to be a great prospect and talent in the Dodgers organization, he under-performed every year until 2004, which juuuust happened to be his contract year. (Coincidence, no doubt.) His previous career high in homers was 23, until he hit 48 in 2004. His previous career high in RBI was 85, until he smacked in 121 in 2004. His previous career best batting average was .290 (which in itself was a rare average for him), that was until 2004 when he hit .334. His previous best for runs was 84 back in 1999, until he had 104 runs in 2004. (You catching the drift yet?) Am I saying he can't hit like this in 2005? No. Do I doubt he can be that great in 2005? Yes. The only high point is that he goes from one pitcher's park in LA to another in Seattle, so he won't be at a disadvantage there. You'll have to draft him in the mid-2nd to mid-3rd round if you want him. I say he has a season of .290/31/97 --- not bad, but no 2004.

4. Hank Blalock - Texas Rangers : Highs: Hank must've pissed off someone in the fantasy baseball world, because his stock seems to have dropped quicker than Enron over the off-season, and I don't see it. In only his second full-time season, he improved his homerun, RBI, and run totals, while only his batting average dropped. So why did his value drop over the off-season? Did he steal someone's girlfriend? Unless he was juicing all this time, I don't see any reason to worry about Blalock's production. He was hotter in the first half of the season than the second by a solid margain, but listen to me closely: it was only his second full season playing in the major leagues. Unlike Rolen who's a vet, or Beltre who decided he wanted to get paid, Blalock was just in his second full season. A season of .285+/30-35HRs/100+RBI is easily attainable in '05. Lows: But because I'm fair, I'll admit he did struggle in the second half of the season. Blalock is a bit streaky at times as a hitter, but at the same time, many young hitters are. Blalock only just turned 24 in the offseason --- so it's not as if he's reached his career's zenith. A wretched July in '04 brought only 3 homers and a .190 average, which hurt his overall numbers. '04 was a much more streakier year than '03 --- yet he put up better overall numbers in '04. I say he stabilizes in 2005 and doesn't yo-yo as much. If I'm risking a pick on one young 3rd baseman and my choices are Blalock or Beltre, I'm taking Blalock without a doubt. Oh, did I mention that more often than not, you can get Blalock in the 4th or 5th round, too?

Duds:
1. Troy Glaus - Arizona Diamondbacks : Highs: He hasn't even hit his 29th birthday, and won't until 2/3 of the way through the season. He's a guy who can hit homers in a hurry, putting up impressive power numbers quickly. Lows: But the guy's one dive for a liner up the third base side away from jamming his achy shoulder again, and missing another month or more again. He's had back-to-back seasons of major injury spells. He's a career .253 hitter. And with his bum shoulder, he's probably not going to even sneak in with his usual 10 steals either. So why the demand for the man? Because everyone's dreaming of him cranking a .300 season where he's not injured, and putting up 45+ homers and 120 RBI. I say with the D-Backs - if healthy - he'll bat .255/34HRs/105RBI. If healthy. An 8th round pick for a third baseman with injury risks and batting .250? It's up to you.

2. Melvin Mora - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Hit .340 (yes, that was Melvin Mora who hit .340) in 2004, with 27 HRs and 104 RBI and 111 runs. He even threw in 11 steals. Someone's been eating his Wheaties. Lows: Hey, it's great to see a career utility guy break out. It was also great to see the Red Sox win the World Series. What do those two things have in common? They don't happen often. I admit, Mora did bat .317 in 96 games in 2003 as well --- but he also batted .233 in 2002 in 149 games. And in 2003 his power numbers weren't nearly as impressive. Maybe he was a product of an improved lineup around him in Baltimore. Maybe he met up with Barry Bonds' boys. I don't know. What I do know is that before last season, this now 33 year old hitter had 49 career homers. I know that Mora is a career .280 hitter --- and that includes the inflation from his bloated 2004 of .340. I know that before last year, Mora never had a season with more than 64 RBI. If you want to draft him anywhere from the 3rd to 5th round to get him, which you'll have to, you knock yourself out. I'll pass.

3. Vinny Castilla - Washington Nationals : Highs: Hit .271 with 35 homers and 131 RBI in 2004. I can't go on. I just can't. Why? Because...Lows: It was in Colorado, that's why! Let's look at the numbers, friend, shall we? When Vinny was in Colorado in the mid-1990's, he went 5 straight seasons without hitting fewer than 32 homers a season --- 191 total homers over that 5 year span. Then Vinny let the thin air get to his head, and he left the Rockies. The next 5 seasons with the Devil Rays and Braves, Vinny hit 65 total home runs. See, that's the same amount of seasons, yet almost 130 fewer home runs. Then, in 2004, Vinny decided to see if the glorified air of Colorado had any love left for him, so he went back...and hit 35 homers again. Are you catching my drift? He's also turning 38 this year. And if you haven't noticed yet, he's not playing for the Rockies in 2005 again. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Run. Don't turn back. Don't be seduced. Don't allow it. Just run. It's not worth it. Run!!!!

Sleepers:
1. Aaron Boone - Cleveland Indians : Highs: Apparently, Boone has decided to lay off the pick-up basketball games for the time being, saving his knee from snapping for now. (Hey, way to go, Boone! Way to use your head for once!) He missed the entire 2004 season because of those very pick-up basketball games, and now makes his comeback in '05. As a "sleeper" status would state, Boone isn't going to put up Arod-type numbers, but based upon value where you can draft him, he's your typical low risk/high reward. 2002 showed Boone's best overall numbers, save for the anemic average of .241. 38 doubles, 26 homers, and 87 RBI in 2002 - plus 32 steals made Boone a hot commodity. In splitting his time between the Reds and Yankees in 2003, Boone hit 24 HRs and 96 RBIs with 23 steals, while improving on his average. He's a career .290 hitter who just turned 32 years old. He's still in his prime, and word out of spring training is that he's looking good in both the field and at the plate so far. Lows: He is coming back from injury, though, an injury that cost him an entire season. His last in-game season action came in the 2003 World Series against the Marlins. He's never had 100 RBI or more than 26 HRs, and his average isn't mind-blowing. But we're talking round value here. Odds are he'll be available from the 15th round on in your typical 12 team league draft. By that stage of the draft, you should be taking educated gambles, and Boone fits that criteria very, very well.

2. Dallas McPherson - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim : Highs: Should be the starting third baseman for the Angels this season, replacing the departed Troy Glaus, and part of the reason why the Angels so easily passed on resigning him. McPherson was a jaw-dropper in the minor leagues, hitting over 40 homers in 2004 in the minors. In a solid enough Angels lineup with Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson, and Orlando Cabrera, he should have a chance to put up some very nice numbers. Oh, and he's only 24 years old. Lows: But he comes with injury issues. Throughout his time in the minors, he experienced back problems, and he's already complaining of the same issues in spring training this year. A bad back can cripple a power hitter, and it won't help McPherson. It also won't help that this will be his first full season facing major league pitching, which will take time to get used to. But considering that he won't be drafted until the 16th round to the very end of your draft (and might even slip to not being drafted at all), if you have an extra bench spot, it's not going hurt at all to take a flyer on him.

Deepers:
1. Joe Crede - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Sigh. Joe, Joe, Joe. Let's just say that Crede is slowly developing. When in the minors, he had more buzz than a Lord of the Rings movie. After two lackluster seasons, though, it seems he's started to be forgotten. But let's not forget good ol' Joe. Not everyone comes out of the gate flying. Just look at Carl Pavano for someone who took a little longer than expected to evolve. Crede turns 27 this April, and has only played two full seasons for the White Sox. This is a man who in 2002 hit 12 homers and 35 RBI in only 53 games --- you do the math. (That comes out to about 36 HRs and 105 RBI in a full season.) He has the potential. I'm not saying he's going to bust out this year, but he has the potential. Lows: His first two full seasons have only resulted in an average of 20 HRs, 72 RBI, and a .250 average. That's not wowing anyone, especially when you bat .239 in 2004. You want an odd fact: he hits almost 40 points lower in day games than he does at night throughout his career --- so if you want to play him solely for night games, you could even manipulate the stats a bit in your favor. Odds are he won't even be drafted, not even close, unless a White Sox super-fan snatches him up. But he bears watching, and it's not out of the question that he pulls off a breakout season this year. He's your classic "deeper" --- someone without much buzz, but with potential that they haven't lived up to yet.

2. Morgan Ensberg - Houston Astros : Highs: You'd have sworn he was a pyromaniac the way he ran around bruning all the fantasy players that were banking on him last season for a big year. I was one of them, I admit. He's still no shoo-in to get the full time gig without Mike Lamb looking over his shoulder. But let's look at the bright side for now: in 2003 he did hit 25 HRs in 385 ABs, while batting .291, and driving in 60. In 2004, he finished the season very strong (but by that time, many fantasy players forgot about him). In June he hit .261. July .258. August .299. September .353. After not hitting a HR until July (yes, until July), he did smack 10 in the final half of the season. Lows: But it did take him three months to get around to hitting that first HR of the season. I believe he was thinking too much, which may seem peculiar to say, but Ensberg is too much of a talent to be going three months without hitting a HR. If he gets the full-time gig at 3B for the Astros, he should turn it around eventually, as he was showing signs of it in the second half of the season. He is 29 years old, so he's getting up there in age to really make a splash, but last year was only his second full season in the majors. This is his make or break season. I say, given a full-time gig and health, that he bats .290/20+HRs/90RBI.

Other Quality Options at Third Base:
1. Eric Chavez - Oakland Athletics : Highs: Still young, having just turned 27 years old. Billy Beane believes in him, since he's practically the only Oakland player that Billy's decided to pay for once. (I wonder if Chavez has incriminating photos of Beane and a farm animal.) Some believe Chavez is among the top 3 or 4 third baseman in baseball, and I no doubt agree he has some amazing talent. Over the past 5 seasons, he's average 30 HRs exactly and 97 RBI. And before 2004 (where he had some injuries), he was good for about 35 doubles as well. Great in the field (though that hardly matters to fantasy players), he's a great overall player in MLB. Lows: But we're talking fantasy baseball here, and here's why he doesn't crack my elite: he has a career batting average of .277, with a career season best of .288. That's hardly eye-popping. Playing in a thin lineup, he doesn't get driven in much, having never scored 100 runs in a season, and having only a career best of 94 runs in 2003. He's a great talent, but I'm not one of these "experts" that sees him having any huge leaps over what he's already done per season. Can he hit over .300? Absolutely. Can he score over 100 runs in a season? Absolutely. But he hasn't done it yet, so that's why he's just another great option at third base and not elite. I predict a .285/32HR/105RBI season.

2. Aramis Ramirez - Chicago Cubs : Highs: He used to fly under the radar. So much so, that on Pardon the Interruption, Michael Wilbon (one of a string of no-nothing sports commentators on ESPN) didn't even know Ramirez existed after his rookie season with the Pirates when he hit 34 HRs and 112 RBI. He's averaged 29 HRs his first four seasons in the majors. If you take out his sophmore slump second season from the average, he's averaged 32 HRs. He's averaged 100 RBI every season for his career --- and if you take out his sophmore slump season, he's averaged 110 RBI. He only has a career batting average of .273, but that includes his down second season --- but he's also batted .300 or better two of his four seasons. He turns only 27 mid-way through this season, and was a model of consistency throughout 2004. Lows: The Cubs are shy Sammy Sosa (who needed some more cork for his bat last season, I admit) and Moises Alou this season, and Nomar is one dinged up wrist/heel/hammy/thigh/runny nose away from missing three months of the season. Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Corey Patterson will carry this team this year (with Nomar, should he choose to remain healthy), but I think he's more than capable to handle it. He has a bit of trouble against left-handed pitching, but it's not enough to warrant benching him -- and he's also a better daytime hitter than nighttime -- but, again, it's not enough to bench him. You'll have to draft him in the 3rd or 4th round to get him, but he's a quality hitter. If you're looking for some stability at third, you could do much, much worse than Ramirez.

3. Aubrey Huff - Tampa Bay Devil Rays : Check out the info under first baseman. Still, he qualifies at three positions (1st, 3rd, OF) in many leagues, and he's maybe more valuable at 3rd than 1st. Having the options of sliding him into three positions makes him all that more valuable. DO NOT fall for the idea that he had a horrible season last year. He sucked for a month, and all fantasy players seem to think the man tanked all season. He didn't. Look at the facts under the first base column. A very solid pick for the value he offers. Someone high on him might draft him as high as the mid-2nd round, but he could just as easily fall to the 4th round as well. Either way, a solid pick.

4. Mike Lowell - Florida Marlins : Highs: Has averaged about 24 HRs the past 5 seasons, with an average of 95 RBI. The Marlins are creating a lot of buzz with Delgado joining a blooming Miguel Cabrera, Lowell, and Juan Pierre, and the idea is that they'll have a much mroe potent offense this season. Lows: He is only a career .277 hitter, though in 2004 he did bat .293. That said, his power numbers struggled mightily down the stretch, hitting only 5 HRs in August, September, and October. Post all-star break, he only had 30 RBI. Part of that has to do with dealing with nagging injuries he tried to play through, but he also has a career habit of cooling off in the second half of the season. It wouldn't be crazy to draft him and then trade him for some value in mid-July before he slows up a bit. He'll be drafted around the 6th or 7th round generally, which is a bit high for his numbers, but not ridiculous. A fine player (but try trading him by July).

Others:
1. David Wright - New York Mets: Young prospect, bit of a sleeper, but bad park and bad team (forget Pedro and Beltran). He has the talent to have a very, very solid team. The old rule in fantasy sports with regards to success is drafting known commodities in the first ten rounds. Wright, though a solid young hitter (he's only 22) and capable of having a very nice season, will end up drafted as high as the 8th round. I just wouldn't reach that high unless I knew I had another option. (Try drafting Boone as a backup, and then I can see taking that 8th round risk on him.)

2. Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves: Hey, he's finally back where he belongs. Seeing him in left field was like watching Hamlet with Ashton Kutcher playing lead. It just wasn't working. Plus, his numbers weren't flourishing, nor were they as impressive when stacked up against other OFs. A horrible .248 average in 2004 was much lower than anything he's typically done. 2004 also ended a string of 8 straight seasons of 100+ RBI. He has a solid chance to make it back to there this season, but he might be drafted as high as the 4th round, which seems mildly risky on a guy who did have his worst season since 1995.

3. Chone Figgins - Los Angeles Angels : Check out second baseman column. He qualifies practically everywhere on the field, except ballboy and grounds crew. Better served playing second base for you.

4. Corey Koskie - Toronto Blue Jays : Many seem to still be drunk on the one lone season when Koskie had over 100 RBI and stole 27 bases back in 2001. He did come close in HRs last season, but his overall numbers are still lacking. If you need a backup at 3rd, or you simply got screwed in the draft and are desperate, take a flyer on Koskie and cross your fingers. He always seems to have some lingering injury.

5. Shea Hillenbrand - Toronto Blue Jays : Most likely will get some time at first base, and qualifies there in most leagues. Again, another solid backup option at 3rd, or an emergency guy if you need one for 3rd. Better average than Koskie (.300+ isn't out of the question) but not a biggest power hitter ever.