Fantasy Sleepers, Deepers, Studs and Duds for Shortstop...

This used to be the position of the "haves" and "have-nots" with regards to fantasy baseball. But in the past couple of seasons, there's been some fluctuations in talent here, and it's evened out a great deal in that time. There's plenty of value to be had here. So, let's take a look...

Studs:
1. Miguel Tejada - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Okay, so the idea of "haves" and "have-nots" doesn't entirely apply here with Tejada, since if you get him, you definitely grabbed yourself a "have." Having been tossed from Billy Beane's stable of talent out in Oakland, Miggy found himself a career year in Baltimore, batting .311/34HR/150RBI (if you forgot, yes, he did drive in 150). Those were career highs in RBI and batting average for him, as well as tying a career high for HRs, while only being one hit and one run off of tying career highs in those stats as well. He's as durable as they come - and how ironic that he plays for Cal Ripken Jr.'s old team now? He hasn't missed a game since 2000 --- and he still played 160 games in 2000. He was consistent from opening to closing day, hardly having much of a slump along the way. Turning 29 years old in May, he's in the prime of his career. Oh, yeah, and he still plays at Camden Yards for half of his games. Lows: There have been rumors for years that Miggy's been on the juice, though nowhere near to the extent of rumors about Bonds. This would be the first season of consequence for players caught using, so it's something to keep aware of with Tejada. I'm not saying he is or isn't using, I'm just saying it's out there. Pressure alone could hold some burdens for him. 2004 was a career year, and odds are he won't be driving in 150 again. He is only a career .276 hitter, so another year of hitting .310 is most likely not occurring either. And he's not going to be stealing bases by the bunch load either. Look for a season of .290/30+HR/120RBI/105+runs. He's a first round draft pick most likely, but he won't disappoint if healthy.

2. Derek Jeter - New York Yankees : Highs: Pretty consistent career, year-in and year-out. Struggled massively in April, and even had a mediocre May and July, but was unbeatable for June and September to end up with numbers fairly typical of him. Actually ended up with one HR fewer than his career high, and posted a career high for doubles. Plays in the power-laden lineup of the Yankees that allows him to be a solid overall play at all five categories in fantasy baseball: runs, HRs, RBI, batting average, steals. Better second half of the season player than first half, but not by much. Lows: A career .315 hitter, but three of the last four seasons he's batted lower than that career average, including 2004. Not nearly as powerful as Tejada or even Nomar Garciaparra (when Nomar plays), so while his numbers are solid, HRs and RBIs won't be too dazzling. He'll turn only 31 this season, so he's still in his prime. A season of .305/17HR+/75RBI/20+steals/110+runs seems about likely. He's a love him or hate him player. If you try to trade him or for him, odds are you'll find wildly varying beliefs to his worth. Unless you're desperate, there's no need to trade him if you have him. Likely to be drafted anywhere from early 2nd to late 4th round. If gotten in late 4th round, that's great value.

3. Edgar Renteria - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Evolved into one of the best all-around shortstops in the game, now joins Boston's most potent lineup in baseball. He should be batting second, behind Johnny Damon and ahead of David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez. A career .289 hitter, he hit a smidge under that in 2004, hitting .287. But his two previous seasons he hit well above his career average. Stole 34 bases in 2003, but dropped to 17 in 2004. Too good of a runner to not steal 20+ this season, even with Boston's slight Moneyball approach to the game. This is a Red Sox lineup where even Mark Bellhorn is driving in 90 or so from the 8 spot. Expect Renteria to hit .310+/15HR/90+RBI/100+ runs/20 steals. Lows: He's changing leagues for the first time in his career. While that holds less water than it once did years ago, it still can befuddle some hitters for the first month or so of the season as they get used to the new pitchers they haven't faced before. Hasn't scored 100+ runs before in his career, but he also hasn't played for a lineup that's broken records for two consecutive seasons like the Red Sox have. Hitting begets hitting. (ex: Tino Martinez with the Yankees, Vinny Castilla with the Rockies, Bill Mueller with the Red Sox) Expect a solid season. Should be drafted anywhere from the 4th to 6th round, unless there's a run on SS's early. Great value for anywhere in those rounds.

Duds:
1. Kaz Matsui - New York Mets : Highs: A guy with all the potential in the Japanese league, having 30/30 type stats and a solid average as well. Played for a weak lineup for the Mets last year, a lineup that should improve a bit this season. He had to adjust to living in an entirely new society and culture while playing his game, which few of us could do. Not everyone is Hideki Matsui or Ichiro when first coming to America. He's only 29 years old and had plenty of room and time to improve. Lows: Thought to be the hot chick coming to the dance, but turned out to be the hot chick who dances like Elaine in Seinfeld. Those dreams by Nets management of seeing a 30/30 man last year quickly dashed away. In an injury marred season, having played only 114 games, he only hit 7 HRs and had only 14 steals. His batting average was a mediocre .273. He still has plenty of potential, and the Mets lineup (if it can remain healthy) should be a bit of an upgrade over last year's version. Still, 2004 was not his shining moment. A 2005 season of .285/15HRs/70RBI/20+ steals is a possibility. Another bummer of a season is too. He'll be drafted anywhere from the 11th to 20th rounds --- all based upon on high someone will be on him. 20th round --- good value. 11th round --- ouch.

2. Jose Valentin - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: Hey, if you want some cheap HRs from your SS, then there's no better place to look than Jose here. He's hit 25 or more the past 5 seasons. He'll also qualify at 3B after he plays enough games there, as the Dodgers plan to use him as their replacement at the hot corner for Beltre. And there's a solid chance he won't even be drafted in your league. Why? Lows: Because he's a career .243 hitter who batted .216 in 2004. That's after he batted .237 in 2003. That can truly crush your overall team average --- unless you have four batting title contenders on your team as well to balance it out. Moving to the Dodgers and their relatively spacious park isn't going to help him post another 25+ homer season. And his age is creaping towards 37 at season's end. If you get a major injury to your SS and need a stop-gap, he's your guy. Otherwise, there's better options out there.

3. Jack Wilson - Pittsburgh Pirates : Highs: Nice story last season, seeing Wilson remain a solid option for SS most of the season. Put up a .308 average with 11HR and 59 RBI whole scoring 82 runs and having 201 hits. Good to see a little guy make an impact. Lows: I hate doing this to the guy, and even to the Pirates' fans that have to suffer with their horrible management, but Wilson's a dud this year. I know, I know, there are some "experts" out there saying they expect Wilson to go gangbusters this year, but let me put this politely: they're obviously sniffing glue. His .308 average was 43 points higher than his career average (and that's his career average including his .308 average). While his power numbers remained almost identical to his history, it was his batting average that sky-rocketed and made him such an attractive option at SS. Listen, the guy played almost three full seasons before 2004's uptake in average. He's never been close to doing this before. Pre all-star break, his average was .332 --- post all-star break it was .279. See what I'm getting at? Other fantasy "experts" want to ignore that, but history doesn't lie. Wilson's a nice story, and maybe he'll make a run at it again this year, but history doesn't sit on his side.

Sleepers:
1. Bobby Crosby - Oakland Athletics : Highs: A first round draft pick by the A's in 2001, he made his full-time debut in 2004. While the average was rather low at .239, he did have 22 HRs, 64 RBI, and 70 runs. He just turned 25 years old, and with a year under his belt he should flourish. I'm not the biggest fan of Oakland's GM Billy Beane, but he does know how to draft young talent. And Crosby is one of his jewels that he's proud of. Lows: The batting average was bit lower than most expected from him, but as is the case with many young hitters, it should improve with time. The second half of the 2004, Crosby swooned like a pre-teen girl in front of Justin Timberlake. Pre all-star break he batted .266, while post all-star break he managed a measley .209 -- all the while his power numbers were nearly identical. He struck out a bit too much, but if he can cut those down a little, it would only help the average improve. It also wouldn't hurt if Oakland tried creating a better overall lineup someday. But as it is, expect a season of around .255+/20-28HRs/85RBI. The average can be much higher if he develops a bit quicker than expected at this point.

2. Pedro Feliz - San Francisco Giants : Highs: I'm putting him under the shortstop category, even though he qualifies at 1B and 3B. His numbers work much better at SS than at either of the corner slots. 2004 was his first full-time season in the bigs, and he responded by putting up a .276/22HR/84RBI/72run season, a season which almost everyone doesn't know about. This, while Felipe Alou moved him anywhere around the field so he could find a spot to play him on a given night. Some of Feliz's teammates (trust me, it ain't Barry) believe so much in him that they're willing to sit a few games to give him a chance to play more in 2005. In 2003, in only 235 at-bats, he hit 16 HRs and 48 RBI. The talent is there, it's just a question of whether or not he gets the playing time. Lows: He was a very slow developer in baseball, as he's already cracking 30 years old in April, and this will be just his second full season (if he gets the playing time). It took awhile for him to make his move, but it looks like he's doing so. After taking a bit of a dive in June and July of '04, he finished up strongly, batting .306 post all-star break. Odds are he'll go under the radar of most fantasy drafters in your typical league, to the point where he might not even end up drafted. He could be a huge steal and pay nice dividends. If he gets the playing time, expect a nice .280/25HR/85RBI/85run season. Not bad for a guy who might not even be drafted...unless you take him.

3. Khalil Greene - San Diego Padres : Highs: Poor guy. Mildly opens some eyes last year, and those eyes have all fallen asleep on him in the off-season. A rookie last year who improved as the season went on, batting .259 pre all-star break and .293 post all-star --- 4 homers pre, 11 homer post. That's what you want to see from your young players, getting stronger as the season goes on. Greene was expected to be a very solid player coming into last season, so it's not as if he came out of nowhere. Ending up with a season of .273/15HR/65RBI season wasn't orgasmic by any stretch of the imagination, but he was a rookie. The Padres play in a horrible park for hitters, but Greene isn't Ted Williams here with the power numbers. A season of .285/17HR/75RBI isn't out of the question. Lows: Playing shortstop is difficult. Playing shortstop very well like Greene is all the more difficult. Some young shortstops end up banged and battered, which affects their hitting --- with the most recent example being Angel Berroa of the Royals. Berroa burned many fantasy players last season after his stellar rookie season in 2003, and I think that worry is rubbing off on people with regards to Greene. Yes, the "sophmore slump" exists for more young players than it doesn't, and it very well might strike Greene. That said, what do you have to lose on a guy that probably won't even be drafted in your league? (Unless, of course, you have a Padres junky playing in your league, but isn't that an oxymoron on some level? "Padres junky"?)

Deepers:
1. Bill Hall - Milwaukee Brewers : Highs: Our winner for the most bland name in all of baseball goes to Mr. Hall. I know, I know, 98% of you are saying, "Who the hell is this Bill Hall guy?" Well, he's a typical "deeper" type player. Young, needs to improve a fair amount, might not get all that much playing time sometimes, but has some talent. In 2004, in 390 ABs he hit 9 HRs and had 53 RBI, while only batting .238 --- and he had 119 strikouts!!!! That was in only 390 ABs, remember. He must be groovy, because he's a swinger. Lows: He obviously needs improvement. The average is shakey at best, and he needs to cut down on the Ks. Unless you're hitting 45 HRs like Adam Dunn, you can't be striking out that often. He just turned 25, stole 12 bases in '04, and has some very raw talent in him. Keep an eye on him. If he puts it together this season, he could be a very nice surprise.

Other Quality Options at Shortstop:
1. Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: He's up and down more than John Travolta. In 2001, he had 14 HRs and 46 steals while batting .274, while in 2002 he dropped to 11HRs/31steals/.245. 2003 his homerun total plummetted to only 8, and his steals fell to only 20. Then, like Travolta with Pulp Fiction, Rollins made a comeback in 2004, posting a career year in runs, RBI, average (not counting his 2000 season where he played only 14 games), while tying his career best in HRs. So, which Jimmy Rollins shows up in 2005? He just turned 26 years old, the lineup in Philly is still pretty strong, the park is a hitter's park, and Larry Bowa is sunbathing somewhere while yelling at small children. Rollins should have another season, hitting around .280+/12+HRs/70+RBI/30+ steals/100 runs. Lows: The first half of the 2004 season looked to be another mediocre year for Rollins until after the all-star break when Rollins went wild, improving his average by 40 points and hitting 11 of his season's worth of 14 HR. Sometimes, though not always, he can start slowly in a season. Still, I'd like to see some consistency from one season to the next before I give Roillins a very strong recommendation. Being only 26 years old, he has plenty of time to prove he can post back-to-back great seasons. He has the talent, and all the combining factors would lead to believe this is the year he does it. Unlike, say, John Travolta. You'll have to draft him around the 4th to 6th rounds, which is fine value if he steals his bases.

2. Rafeal Furcal - Atlanta Braves : Highs: Where as Jimmy Rollins has yet to post to rather identical solid seasons back-to-back, Furcal already has. The past two seasons he's averaged 116 runs, .285 avg, 14.5 HRs, 60 RBI, and 27 steals. Odds are that at their best he'll post lower RBIs than Rollins and steal fewer bases, but might grab more runs and possibly a better average. It's really a question of what you'd rather have when it comes between the two. Lows: The Braves are becoming more focused on pitching this season, and investing less in their hitting, which only works to hurt Furcal's value. It also doesn't help Furcal that he can't lay off the sauce when he decides he's going for a drive. Drunk driving convictions aren't helping him on the field, never mind off it. Still, he's young (I don't think we'll find out he's any older than he's supposed to be again), being only 26 years old. He'll post solid enough numbers for a late 5th round/6th round pick, especially if he gets the runs and can improve upon his steals.

3. Nomar Garciaparra - Chicago Cubs : Highs: Sigh. He's the best looking girl at school who keeps leading you on, and then she breaks your heart. As an offensive player, he's as good if not better than any other shortstop in baseball right now --- yes, even more so than Tejada. When you look at everything, OBP, BA, slugging, RBI, HRs, steals, runs - you name it, his history shows that he has the talent to be the best. The problem is that the man seemingly is a magnet for baseball's hitting him in the worst possible spot. One hit his wrist (that took ages to heal), one's hit his heel (which caused trouble), never mind the myriad of other injuries he's come across. He's still in his prime, being only 31 until late July. A solid Cubs lineup and a healthy season can snap him back to the top of the SS list in fantasy baseball. a .315/25+/100+RBI/100 run/20 steal season is easily possible. Lows: But he's been injured so often throughout his career. He had stray little injuries in 1998, 1999 and 2000, 2001 was nearly an entire lost season, 2002 and 2003 seemed like he had beaten the injury bug, but then 2004 showed the black cloud still existed. He's just an injury risk of the most blatant example. He can be moody as well, and with the Cubs clubhouse bitching about anything and everything at times, who knows how badly he'll sulk. But he usually can play through his moods. Just cross your fingers that he doesn't step into a pothole and sprain an ankle, or that Mia Hamm boils some pasta and drops the pot in his lap, or some other freakish injury. You'll have to draft him from the 3rd to 5th round (most likely 3rd than 5th), but draft a backup late just in case.

4. Michael Young - Texas Rangers : Highs: Classic case of a late bloomer. Hist first couple of seasons were middling at best. But 2003 and'04 showed what Young is capable of. His 2003 numbers: 14HR/72RBI/.306/106runs/13 steals are overall very solid. His 2004 numbers: 22HR/99RBI/.313/114runs/12 steals are about as well rounded as it gets for a SS in fantasy baseball. Playing in one of the best hitter's parks baseball in Texas and playing in a young, hitter-happy lineup can only help Young have another great year. Lows: There's this lingering worry with some "experts" that Young has somehow pulled off a fluke two seasons in a row. The fault with this logic is that when someone has a fluke season, they really only have a fluke half-season --- a half-season so strong that their end numbers for the overall season look very impressive. Players don't have two "fluke" seasons back to back, seasons where you were solid from beginning to end. His numbers do usually trail off a little in the second half of the season, but they're still solid enough numbers, so it's nothing to worry about. You'll have to draft him around the late 5th round typically to get him. If he posts a season like his last two, that's very solid round value for him. I expect a season of .305/16HRs/80RBI/105runs/10+steals.

5. Orlando Cabrera - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Okay, so offensively he's not going to blow you away. As an all-around SS he's of much greater value than a fantasy SS. That said, someone out there will be drafting their team and realize they're screwed, as the best SS's have come off the board. So who would you take in that instance? Orlando can be your man. Finally getting out of the 5th dimension of hell - also known as the Montreal Expos - and joining the Red Sox midseason last year, he had a chance to show how his numbers would look pretty good if in a solid lineup. In only 58 games with the Red Sox, he had 6 HRs/31RBI/.294avg. In previous years with the Expos, he's shown he can put up a solid 15 HR type season while swiping 20+ bases. Being in the solid Angels lineup will help him maintain the pace he had with the Red Sox last season. Expect a season of about .275/15HR/75+RBI/15+steals. Lows: Only a career .268 hitter, his average and power numbers sometimes fluctuate from year to year. Some of that can be blamed on the players the Expos threw around him in any given year, some of it is his own fault. He's only 30 years old, so he's in his prime, and he heats up slightly as the weather does as well (especially his power numbers). But considering the state of the Angels, I think he's in a prime position to post a solid season. The biggest issue is where he'll be drafted. Some drafters will be high on him from his stint with the Red Sox so they'll draft him by the 5th round. Others will let him fall until the 10th round. IF he falls much beyond the 7th or 8th round, he's a great grab and a great value. The 5th might be a bit high to draft him in.

6. Carlos Guillen - Detroit Tigers : Highs: After disappointing plenty of higher-ups in Seattle for years with his underperforming ways, his first season with the Tigers was one of those out-of-nowhere occassions in fantasy baseball. Most people (myself included) figured after more than a few full seasons of never improving under his belt, that he wasn't going to be worth mentioning. 2004 offered career highs in nearly every category, making him one of the best shortstops in baseball last year. Being only 29 years old leaves him in his prime, so good things can still be coming. The Tigers are going younger, and their owner has finally - finally! - decided to spend some money on his team, so maybe as a team they can turn some heads. Lows: After a sluggish August, he had some injury issues to finish up the year, missing more games than he played in September. You have to wonder if he doesn't come back down to earth a little bit, even if the type of season he had in Detroit was somewhat expected in Seattle the past few seasons. Some see a huge bust written all over him, but if he can be healthy his numbers most likely will take a slight dip. Expect a season of .280/12+HRs/75RBI. His draft position is all over the map, as some expect the same season as last year from him, while others assume the worst. Anywhere from the 5th to the 12th round is a possibility. The later he sits on the board, the more round value he's offering you. I wouldn't touch him in the 5th round, though.

7. Chone Figgins - Los Angeles Angels /// Jose Reyes - New York Mets /// Juan Uribe - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Check under second base notes for info on Figgins and Reyes. Each of these guys qualify at multiple positions, though Reyes is most likely fitted for second base over shortstop, and Figgins is a toss-up. Uribe is an interesting player in that he finally improved after he left the sweet air of Colorado. Though he qualifies at third base, his numbers would have the most impact playing under second or short. He posted career highs under every important stat category playing for an injury-marred lineup in Chicago last year. Was it a fluke year? Well, he's only 25 years old, and his overall numbers improved as the year season went on, though he was very consistent, ending up with 23HRs/74RBI/.283 avg/82 runs. Lows: I'll give the guy credit for consistency last season. But it's the strangest thing to see a guy improve after he leaves the Rockies, which leads to the worry that he'll bust this year. Typically, after a player has a career year in every category, their numbers dip a little at the very least. That's the safest assumption for Uribe, especially when you consider his young age andsituation with the White Sox, being one of the few hitting options for the team. A 2005 season of .265+/15+HRs/70RBI/80RBI would be a solid follow up to '04. He's drafted anywhere from 10th to the 16th round. Again, another classic case of trying to hold off on him the latest you can to assure you get the best value for him.

8. Alex Gonzalez - Florida Marlins : Highs: Only 28 years old, has some pop in his bat (23HRs, 79 RBI in '04), and plays for a solid lineup with the Marlines on 2005. Lows: Hideous batting average that he seemingly is struggling to improve upon. He's the younger man's version of Jose Valentin. He batted .232 in '04, and has a career average of .242. That doesn't instill confidence. But sometimes hitting begets hitting. He most likely won't get drafted, but if you're desperate for a last round pick, go ahead and take a shot if you need some HRs.

9. Cesar Izturis - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: Just turned 25, can steal 20+ bases for you with a solid enough average and score some runs. Lows: Is the newer version of Omar Vizquel, as he can't get many HRs. If he gives you 5 in 2005, you're lucking out. Dodger Stadium doesn't help matters, and the Dodgers lineup isnt as strong as in 2004. If you need some cheap steals, a late draft pick wont hurt.