Fantasy Sleepers, Deepers, Studs, and Duds for Closers and Relief Pitching...

Is there more turnover at one position over the course of a season across Major League Baseball as there is with the closer? Even in the offseason, teams end up changing who their closer will be for the upcoming season. And then during the season, closers will end up sucking for their teams...which leads to a new closer taking over for that team. Or, a closer will become injured (Paging Billy Wagner...Billy Wager...), so a new closer will take over for them. Or, at the trading deadline a closer will get traded to another team desperately seeking some help for their need of a closer, so both teams end up with a new closer. Catch our drift yet? So, let's take a look at our options here, before the headaches start.

Studs:
1. Eric Gagne - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: Talk about Mr. Consistency. Forget that whole "dominace" fact with regards to his pitching. How about him pitching 82.1 innings for three straight years now? Not 82.2, not 83 --- 82.1. Fits in with his style of being the most consistent closer in baseball for those three seasons as well, though. He's averaged just under 51 saves and 122Ks, a 1.79ERA, and a 0.82WHIP per season for the past three seasons. Against right-handed pitching he's just nearly unhittable, there's no two ways to say it (righty opponents batted a sickening .129 aginst him in 2004), and if it's a day game, well, you might as well go home in the 8th inning if the Dodgers lead, since batters only hit .091 against him in 2004. He's been about as dominant as a closer can get the past three seasons. Lows: We're not saying he did or didn't, but there have been rumors that closers were some of the biggest steroid users (for the quick bounce-back so they can be at their peak the next day), and Gagne was at the head of the list. It's something to keep in mind one way or the other, but they were just that - rumors. His save total last year was the lowest it's been for him since he began as a closer, while his ERA and WHIP were at there highest, alebit still freakishly good. His walks and runs were up as well, albeit, again, still microscopically. But he's also battling witha sprained knee this spring training. It could linger all year. He's still only 29 years old and pitching in Dodger's Stadium, that pitcher's haven. He's being drafted in the 2nd to early 3rd round if you want him, and we predict a season of 2.20ERA/0.95WHIP/110+Ks/45+saves.

2. Mariano Rivera - New York Yankees : Highs: I don't know if you've heard of this guy --- he's been trying to make a name for himself with that struggling small-market New York Yankee club for years now. He's pretty good if you haven't heard. Just, oh, I don't know, a 2.43ERA and 1.07WHIP over his entire career, and a 1.94ERA and 1.08WHIP in 2004 with 53 saves - a career high. Does Mo need any explanation? He's been at it as a closer since 1997, and might go down as one of the best all-time. Playing for the Yankees doesn't hurt with all the save opportunities he gets. Only the number of strikeouts Gagne gets separates Rivera from Gagne. Lows: He's getting older. Typically, a closer has a stretch of about 8 years where they can downright dominate, and wouldn't you know, Mo has already passed that threshold. It's time to start getting wary about his age. He's been ending up on the DL for short stints more and more the past few years, and at 35 years of age, you have to wonder how quickly he can bounce back at times. And having to face the Red Sox 19 times a year doesn't help. Just like how the Yankees learned how to face Pedro Martinez over the years, making him seem downright mortal, the Red Sox have Mo's number. Evidence: in 2004, Mo's ERA against the Red Sox was 4.22, and over the past four years it's been 3.89. (Or just look to last 2004's ALCS when he imploded twice against them.) He'll face the Red Sox maybe more than any other team in 2005, so beware when he faces them and sit him that night. It sounds absurd, but numbers don't lie, folks. Expect a season of around a 2.30ERA/1.10WHIP/60Ks/40+saves, and for him to be drafted anywhere from the late 2nd (if you have a Yankee fan in your league) to late 3rd round in your draft.

3. Brad Lidge - Houston Astros : Highs: He's become the poor man's Eric Gagne, but by the end of the year he might make Gagne the poor man's Brad Lidge. He took over the closer's duties midseason in 2004 after the Astros traded Octavio Dotel to the Oakland A's, and was just as absurdedly dominant as a closer as he was a middle-reliever. Posting a season in '04 of 1.90ERA/0.92WHIP/157Ks. Houston probably won't be in position to win as many games this year, but he still should post close to 40 saves and have his great inning-to-strikeout ratio. Expect a 2005 season of 1.80ERA/0.90WHIP/100Ks/40saves. Lows: Don't expect him to pitch as many innings as he did in 2004 (94.2 innings), since as a closer the Astros will try to limit him to one inning typically, though Lidge is that type of closer who can go for 2 inning saves more often than most. But by rolling back his innings by about 15 to 20, his Ks should decrease a bit as well. And don't be freaked out if Lidge is shakey in April, as he's a little rusty sometimes right out of the gate. He's only 29, he's in the prime of his career...what are we bitching about? He's being drafted in the 4th round typically, but some people having a closer orgasm have been snatching him as early as the 2nd round. We say wait until the late 3rd at the earliest to pick him if you want him.

4. Francisco Rodriguez - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Brad Lidge is the caucasian K-Rod, let's put it that way. The only reason K-Rod come in behind Lidge is because of two reasons: Lidge had more strikeouts, and Lidge had the closer's job for more of 2004 to show what he could do in that position. (And if you don't think there's a difference between being a middle reliever and a closer...just look to Octavio "How-the-hell-am-I-in-Oakland?" Dotel) K-Rod's only 23 years old, has a healthy arm, a solid team, and posted a 2004 season of 1.82ERA/1.00WHIP/123Ks/and only 12 saves, since he filled in for the injured Troy Percival. He's got the job full time now that Percival's enjoying the sights and sounds of the Motor City, so enjoy a season of 2.05ERA/1.00+WHIP/100+Ks/40+saves. Lows: He is still young, but having played in a World Series in 2003 and having some, albeit little, closer experience already should help. He walks more batters than your Rivera or Gagne, but that's what younger pitchers do, but how about him only allowing 2 homeruns in all of 2004? That's right ---- 2. Don't expect him to pull that stunt again, but it shows what command he has. Don't worry about him struggling if you are. He's being drafted in the mid-3rd to early 4th rounds typically. A nice value, but you can't go wrong between him or Lidge.

5. Keith Foulke - Boston Red Sox : Highs: To show you the genius of the White Sox management, in 2002 they stopped using Foulke as their closer because he was struggling. Yeah, tell me about it. In 2002, he only had a 2.90ERA/1.00WHIP. That bum!! Glad the White Sox didn't try to re-sign him in 2003 when Oakland did, and where Foulke showed the White Sox what type of bum he was, posting an '03 season of 2.08ERA/0.89WHIP/88Ks/43saves. That bum! Those White Sox knew what a piece of garbage Foulke was!! So, in 2004 the Red Sox signed Foulke to a multi-year deal, and Foulke was just his typical White Sox bum self, posting a 2.17ERA/0.94/79Ks/32saves. (Please, note the sarcasm in all this.) Though Rivera seems to be labeled as a strikeout pitcher by some fantasy "experts" - he's really a groundball pitcher. Foulke, on the other hand, because he doesn't throw a 98MPH fastball, is thought to be a groundball pitcher - but really he's more of a strikeout pitcher. (Ex: 79Ks for Foulke to 66 for Rivera in 2004...and in 2003 Foulke led 88 to 63 over Rivera in Ks.)Don't be confused like your fellow fantasy leaguer players. Stay sharp. Lows: His saves went down in 2004 with the Red Sox because, well, the Red Sox didn't have as many save chances for him. The Red Sox had the greatest run differential in all of baseball...which means a closer typically doesn't get as many save chances. 2005 may or may not be the same story. But as Foulke showed in the playoffs against the Yankees and Cardinals, pressure packed situations and multi-inning games are no problem. He's one of those pitchers with a rubber arm, and is still only 32, so he's got a few years to go before you start worrying about age (unlike Mo). Expect a 2005 season of 2.00+ERA/0.95WHIP/85Ks/40saves. He's being drafted from the mid-5th to late 6th round. Compared to the numbers of Rivera and where Rivera is being drafted, that's great value for Foulke.

6. Joe Nathan - Minnesota Twins : Highs: Here's more proof how middle relievers become closers, and how closers move to new teams (Guardado), which changes closers for that team as well...and so on and so on, to the extent that it just wants to drive us insane. Alas, Joe Nathan proved last year that he's one closer who's not going to force you to become a Tylenol junky from closer headaches, as he posted one of the most consistent closer seasons in 2004, with a 1.62ERA/0.98/89Ks/44saves. This, after a 2003 season where he was maybe the best middle reliever for the San Francisco Giants when he post an ERA just north of 2.00 and won 12 games. (Is your head spinning yet? Don't let it.) The Twins are still one of the best teams in the mediocre AL Central division, and by having a good - but not dominant - lineup, the Twins should grant Nathan a ton of save opportunities. Great strikout numbers for a closer as well, too. Lows: He had a terrible August - 5.06ERA/1.50WHIP - which led some to wonder if closer pressures in the playoff chase were getting to him, but he bounced back with a huge September (1.64ERA/0.55WHIP). Playoff experience for a couple years can't hurt either. Draft Nathan and sit back and relax. Even though he's only had one season as a closer, he's sold us that he's the real deal. Expect a season of 1.75ERA/1.00WHIP/85+Ks/45saves. He's being drafted in the mid-5th to mid-6th round of a typical draft. Very solid value, again, especially when compared to Rivera being taken in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Duds:
1. Troy Percival - Detroit Tigers : Highs: Hey, we're give credit to the Tigers for finally spending money the past couple years on their team. (Now, if that idea could rub off on the Pirates and the Royals and the...) And we're not saying Percival is the biggest bust in fantasy baseball, but there are many options out there at closer you should be angling toward first. But this is the "highs" section, so let's be "high" on him...uh...he won a World Series ring with the Angels in 2003. He, umm...well...we here real estate prices have dropped around Detroit, so we bet Troy's gotten a nice deal on a fine house. And, uh...well...umm...let's just move onto the "lows" okay? Lows: You'd like to see your closers pitching about 70+ innings a season --- possibly even 80 innings. But Troy, well, he hasn't been above 60 innings since 1998, and hasn't been above 50 innings the past two seasons. His WHIP has gone up the past three seasons, up to 1.25 in 2004, which isn't the greatest number for a closer. Meanwhile, his strikeouts have decreased the past three seasons as well, down to an anemic 33 in 2004 (while he walked 19...not the greatest ratio he had going there). He's had injury issues up the whazzoo for a great deal of his career as well --- and he's 35 years old, and will turn 36 before the season's over. The Tigers should win more games this season over last year, but they're not going to be winning 95 games, so his save opportunities won't be plush. So...have you caught our drift yet? Expect a season of 3.00+ERA/1.20+WHIP/40Ks/25+saves. He's being drafted in the 10th to 11th rounds usually, which is fine to draft him for your #3 or 4th closer. But don't draft him for anything more than that, and expect an injury sometime during the season.

2. Jose Mesa - Pittsburgh Pirates : Highs: You want some analysis that appears someone was "high" when they were giving some fantasy players "advice"? A certain site we saw (we won't name names, in order to avoid them from being embarrassed) said the bullpen of the Pirates was a strength for them (true), and that was lead by Jose Mesa. Huh????? He, I loved Mesa in 2004. He was a great very late draft pick and free agent pickup in 2004, and for an emergency closer/#3 or #4 closer was as good as it gets. But he's a strength? Mesa?!?! Are we talking about the same Jose Mesa here? Here's why we cut through the BS here at Waaay Back Fantasy Analysis and stop being emanored with players for no apparent reason. Now, if only we could get other fantasy baseball analysis sites off the drugs. Just say No! Lows: Here's why our fellow fantasy analyst at a competing site was high: Mesa had a 3.25ERA/1.41WHIP in 2004. A 1.41WHIP for a closer. That's horrible. That's horrible for a starting pitcher, never mind a closer. For a closer, that's reason to lose your job. Or how about batters hit .291 against him in 2004. THAT'S AWFUL! This was after a stellar 2003 when Mesa had a season with Philadelphia where he posted a 6.52ERA/1.76WHIP/.296BAA. Sweet mother of Moses, that's horrible. (And Mesa's a strength????) How about this: for his career, Mesa's posted 4.27ERA/1.47WHIP. For...his...career. He's a friggin' closer, people. You're not supposed to be pitching like that. And we leave you with these two lows: He's turning 39 years old in May of this year, and he has Mike Gonzalez pitching lights-out middle relief ahead of him. If Mesa sucks up the joint - which is highly possible - Gonzalez could always become the closer, and it happens more often for mediocre teams during the season than not. So, uhh, yeah, Mesa's a "strength"----suuuuure. Anyway, we still love Mesa. We really do. Expect a season of a 4.00+ERA/1.40WHIP/30+saves if he keeps the job all season. He's being drafted in anywhere from the 10th to 12th round. ONLY draft him as your last closer for your team, and hold off as long as possible to draft him.

3. Miguel Batista - Toronto Blue Jays : Highs: Well, he's got a great name. "Miguel Batista" --- it just rolls off the tongue really well, don't you think? Especially if you give it a deep Latin accent --- it's a great name. Sounds like the name of a Lothario, a Latin lover., etc. And, well, Batista is playing in Toronto, which is really a great city to visit sometime. We highly recommend it. Great people, great North American city. We hope Miguel enjoys it. Otherwise, well, there's not much to say about Batista in the "highs" section. Lows: That's because of a multitude of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that Toronto plays musical chairs with their closer more often than a group of six-year olds do at a birthday party. Today - right now - it's Batista. So, let's look at how this starter-turned-closer looks statistically. He's a career 4.46ERA/1.44WHIP guy who in 2004 posted a 4.80ERA/1.52WHIP. He's never been a strikeout guy, only having about 4 to 5 Ks per 9 innings, while opponents over his career have batted at a .265 clip --- very average to say the least. Is he the next Eric Gagne - a guy who was a starter to become a closer? Seriously doubtful. Can he be a solid option for a closer? What's your definition of solid? Batista is hard to judge because he's become a closer for the first time, and we have no clue as to how he'll take to the job. It takes a certain mental makeup to become a solid closer, and only time will tell with Batista. That, and how quickly Toronto will stick with him if he struggles at times. We won't wager a guess on his ERA/WHIP numbers, but if he keeps the job, we'll say he eclipses 30 saves. He's being drafted from anywhere from 13th round to not being drafted at all - falling throuigh the cracks and going under the radar to the waiver wire. He's definitely worth a mid-teen round gamble, as at best he'll at lest give you some saves. So don't forget him, but don't make him your cornsertone closer by any strech of the imagination. He's a true gamble.

Sleepers:
1. B.J. Ryan - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Here is yet another middle reliever becoming a closer this season, but it's not as if Jorge Julio didn't lose the job outright with his wretched performance in 2004. Ryan's been moving on up the past few seasons with his performace, having his ERA, WHIP, and his opponents batting average against improve for two straight seasons, ending up in 2004 with a 2.28ERA/1.14WHIP/.200BAA. Oh, yeah, and he had 122Ks in 87 innings last year. Not bad. He's just turned 29 years old, so it's more than likely he's just a late bloomer as a relief pitcher. Lows: Jorge Julio still has an outside shot at keeping the closer's job, though he should be starting the season (and remaining the season) as the set-up man. Ryan's career ERA and WHIP numbers aren't dazzling (3.79/1.36), but as we pointed out above, they've improved for two straight years, being outright dominant in 2004. He's downright unhittable against lefties (they batted only .096 in 2004 against him), but righties do hit at a .252 clip. He'll have to improve on that. That, and the Orioles will score a ton of runs, the question is whether their starting pitching can keep a lead until they get to their closer. Expect Ryan to be fine when he does get the ball though. A season of 3.00ERA/1.20WHIP/35+saves/90+Ks (100+ if he works enough innings) seems easily attainable. He's being drafted from the 9th to the 11th round - good value, though he comes with a slight risk.

2. Jeremy Affeldt - Kansas City Royals : Highs: This is the "sleepers" section, remember? This means the guy might not be the best option, the first option, a top-20 option, but he's a guy with a ton of upside. Okay? That said, Affeldt is only 25 years old - 26 in June. He's a lefty (gotta love those lefties), has filthy stuff, and has the job. The ceiling is high and ready to be shattered --- the question is whether Affeldt does it this season. Lows: His career and 2004 numbers are very unimpressive. He was a young pitcher, and he's looked it - massively - at times. He was ouright terrible in August and September of '04, and that's not the way to finish up a season, but ending up with a 4.95ERA/1.61WHIP wasn't instilling hope in anyone. But the Royals have given him the job, and the most likely other option is Mike MacDougal who lost the job to Affeldt --- so it's Affeldt's for now, and most likely all season if he's healthy. Listen, the Royals aren't winning much in 2005 (hate to break the news), so Affeldt's not going to have 50 saves. He's going to struggle at times most likely. But his ability to pitch is so high, there's no way the Royals don't give him a chance. There's a strong possibility that he becomes a top-15 closer in 2005...and just as likely he struggles like a young pitcher would. He's being drafted in the 14th and 15th rounds --- and that's a great time to take a flyer on him.

Deepers:
1. Mike Gonzalez - Pittsburgh Pirates : Highs: He's turning 27 years old in May, played his first full season in 2004, and only had a 1.25ERA/0.88WHIP/55Ks in 43.1 innings. And once Jose Mesa implodes (oh, come on, we all know he's likely to do so eventually), Gonzalez seems to be first in line for the job. If he pitches 80+ innings for the season, you're looking at a reliever with over 100Ks. Lows: Granted, he doesn't have the closer's job --- yet. And it took Gonzalez some time to work his way through the minors to become the reliever he's become. But that's what 30th round drafted pitchers do (which Gonzalez was) --- take some time to develop. He walked only 6 batters and opponents batted only .201 against him in 2004, so he's the real deal. The Pirates are just watching and waiting for Mesa's time to be up. Gonzalez is barely being drafted in many leagues, and when he is drafted it's the 20th+round usually. But another dominant year on par with 2004 is likely, and he's worth a pick just for his ERA and WHIP numbers. But if he gets the closer's job, then you've got yourself a steal.

Other Quality Options for Closer:
1. Billy Wagner - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: Ahh, the "Baby-Faced Assassin" -- the only reason he doesn't qualify under the "studs" category are the health injuries he's had for awhile now. In 2000, he dealt with major arm issues. In 2004, more injury issues arose. Though he's healthy now, it's always something you have to keep in mind with Wagner. One of the hardest throwers in baseball, Baby-Face has a career 2.52ERA/1.02WHIP, and has averaged WELL over 9Ks per 9 innings. Though injured for bits in 2004, he still posted a 2.42ERA/0.77WHIP with 21 saves. Philly has a chance to win the NL East this season, and their offense has plenty of power to it, so there should be many chances for svaes for Wagner. Lows: Ahh, but can he be healthy all season? He is 33 years old, but turning 34 just after the midway point in the season. His whole ability to be successful is based on his blazing fastball (100mph is fairly common for him), but that takes a strain on the arm after awhile. If age slows that fastball down, then Wagner will start to get smacked around more often. It hasn't started yet, but obviously the Astros didn't mind seeing him go after 2003, so you know they're wondering about it as well. Expect a season of 2.50ERA/o.90WHIP/75+Ks (if he pitches 60+innings)/40+saves. He's being drafted anywhere from the 5th to 7th round in a typical draft, depending on how high a manager is on Wagner this year. If he falls to the 7th round, that's a great value.

2. Francisco Cordero - Texas Rangers : Highs: The only person more zesty than Cordero at times is Charo, and she's not pitching in relief last I heard. (She was a B-level star in the '70's and '80's for those unaware.) Over the last three years, his ERA has averaged 2.29, and he's averaging just over 9Ks per 9innings, as well as hitters only hitting .220 against him during the past 3 years. The Rangers might play in a hitter's park, but the Rangers can bop with the best of them, and should challenge for the AL West despite their mediocre starting pitching. That should allow Cordero to have plenty of save opportunities. Lows: He's not the greatest with command, and he needs to work on it, though in 2004 he got his walks down to 32, which is respectable, if not jaw-dropping. (For example, Gagne had 22 walks, Rivera 20, and Foulke only 15 in 2004.) We'd love to see his walks get down to under 30, possibly 25, before we promote him to stud status. He's going to turn 30 years old in May (but he is Dominican, and we know that means he might be 35 for all we know), so he should still have a few solid years left in the tank. Expect a season of 2.50ERA/1.30WHIP/80+Ks/45saves. He's being drafted in the 6th to 7th round, which is solid value.

3. Jason Isringhausen - St. Louis Cardinals : Highs: Izzy is a tale two relief pitchers. One, a middling pitcher not worth a mention in any fantasy leagues. The other, a solid closer for a number of years. For the first half of his career Izzy was the former, and for the better part of the past six years, he's been the latter pitcher. Over the last six years, Izzy's averaged a 2.71ERA/1.17WHIP season. Typically, he's never gone for more than 30-35 saves in a season, except in 2004 when he shot up to 47 saves. That was an anomaly, as the Cards put him into a position to make those saves with their solid starting pitching and fantastic lineup. Expect a return to maybe 40 saves this season, with his usual 2.70ERA/1.20WHIP. Lows: He was injury-plagued for the beginning of his career, and he's a case of a stereotype holding on firm to a player when it no longer holds much water. Sure, players have little injuries here and there that forces them to miss a game or two, but Izzy's been healthy and pitched 65+ innings for 4 of the last 5 seasons. (The lone season he didn't he played 2/3 of the season.) In a way, Isringhausen is undervalued by fantasy players who believe his numbers are worse than they are or that he's more of an injury risk than he has really been. He's still only 32 years old and should still have a couple more years left in the tank. With the Cardinals backing him, he's a solid closer option, and he's being drafted around the 8th round, which makes him a pretty valuable pick at closer compared to some who'll be drafted 3 to 5 rounds ahead of him.

4. Trevor Hoffman - San Diego Padres : Highs: He'll go down as one of the most underappreciated closers in the history of baseball. Why? Probably because east coast baseball junkies have gone to bed by the time he comes into games, and sportscasts on local TV and the ESPN SportsCenter's of the world won't be able to show his highlights before those people go to bed either...so he gets underappreciated by the public at hand. A career 2.74ERA/1.04WHIP, he posted a 2004 with 2.30ERA/0.91WHIP/41 saves. The Padres have a solid team going for them this year, and their park is a pitcher's delight, so Hoffman is in the best possible situation for a closer --- close games and a pitcher's park. Lows: The most obvious problem is age. He's 37 years old, and if the Padres make the playoffs, he'll turn 38 during them. He spent most of 2003 injured, appearing in only 9 games, and hasn't pitched 60+ innings since 2001 - over three full seasons. He seems relatively healthy right now in spring training, but it's something to keep an eye on with Hoffman. Drafting him comes with serious risk, especially just over his age alone. It's strongly suggested that if you use him as your #1 or #2 closer that you have a backup from the Padres (such as Akinori Otsuka) stashed away on your bench just in case. A season of sub-3.00ERA/1.12WHIP/35+saves seems easily attainable. He's being drafted in the mid-8th to mid-9th round.

5. Armando Benitez - San Francisco Giants : Highs: Had a huge bounce-back season in 2004, posting 1.29ERA/0.82WHIP/47 saves with the Marlins. He's got a solid, if not blow-you-out-of-your-seat strikout to inning ratio (about one an inning...little less). He's one of those closers who's been highly dependable with always easting up a consistent number of innings every year. Though saves are hugely important when looking at a closer, the consistency of innings they pitch one year to the next is a barometer of how dependable they'll be for you. And Benitez has pitched 65+ innings 8 straight seasons, with 70+ innings 5 of those times. Though the Giants have lost Barry Bonds for God knows how long (depends on if Barry gets another shipment of "flaxseed oil" soon, I guess), they still have the sort of team that'll have plenty of close games in need of a closer. 40-50 saves are not out of the question, even over 50. A season of 2.35ERA/1.15WHIP/45 saves is possible. Lows: If he were in kindergarden, you'd swear he had cooties, since he's moving to his 5th team in just over two seasons. Though with the Marlins he was downright dominant, a rocky 2003 had him shipped to three teams, and the Marlins either didn't want to spend the money or didn't care enough to keep him for 2005. That very well says something about a guy's character. In years past (though not 2004) Benitez has had some serious control issues, walking batters at much too high a clip (41 walks throughout 2003, and 4 of the last 8 seasons he's had 40 or more). It's something to keep an eye on, as it can hurt your WHIP and if he's not careful, it'll lead to an inflation in his ERA...and yours. But we'll give him the benefit of the doubt that the 40+walk days are behind him. He's being drafted higher than we'd like, anywhere from the late 5th to late 7th round. We don't suggest the late 5th round at all, but can very well easily justify the 7th round.

6. Octavio Dotel - Oakland Athletics : Highs: He was as good as it got for middle relivers for 2001-2003, and the Astros thought he could handle the reigns of a closer, so they shipped Billy Wagner. For those three seasons as a middle reliever, he averaged 120Ks/2.33ERA/1.01WHIP. Let's just say 2004 wasn't so kind when he became a closer. Is there a bright side to 2005 for him? Well, Oakland's ballyard is a pitcher's park with it acres of foul ground on both base sides, and for a power pitcher like Dotel, those late swings by a batter can lead to numerous foul balls if he's on his game...foul balls caught in Oakland for an out that would be 10 rows back in Fenway or Yankee Stadium. He can become the pitcher he was for those three seasons. He's only one year removed. Take a chance. Lows: That said, 2004 was not kind to Mr. Dotel. Maybe it was Oakland. Maybe it was the marijuana floating out of Billy Beane's office. (I kid, Billy. I kid cause I care.) Maybe Barry Zito was just rubbing off on Dotel. A 4.09ERA/1.16WHIP in Oakland was not what anyone was expecting. That said, between Houston and Oaklnd last year, he surprisingly had 122 strikeouts. So, while other fantasy "experts" are saying Dotel lost a lot of spped because of the bloated ERA, his strikeout numbers beg to differ. His elbow wasn't right last year, admittedly, but he still has the ability. His WHIP and BAA in 2004weren't all that different from his career numbers. Sometimes, the cookie doesn't crumble like you'd like it to, and for Dotel, maybe 2004 was the year his cookie just wasn't holding up. We expect a mild comeback this year. A season of 2.90ERA/1.20WHIP/90+Ks (if 75+innings pitched) and 35+saves as a strong possibility. He's being drafted in the mid-7th to late-8th round in your typical draft.

7. Shingo Takatsu - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Good ol' Shingo. Came over from Japan last year and performed hypnotizing tricks on batters throughout the AL, posting a 2.31ERA/0.98WHIP and opponents could only manage a .182 batting average against him. He was a great reliever for years in Japan, and like many players in recent years from the Japanese league, decided to give it a go in the majors before his career was through. The White Sox should challenge for the AL Central, and their starting pitching isn't horrible, so there should be ample enough opportunities for him to make saves. Lows: Buuuuut, Shingo's hypnotizing tricks seemed to be wearing thin in the second half of the 2004 season. Pre-all-star break he posted 1.30ERA/0.81WHIP numbers, but after the all-star break his tricks weren't working as well, posting only 3.58ERA/1.19WHIP. Eeeek. Shingo's also 36 years old...and is lucky if he can crack 87-88mph on the radar gun. Hitter's started laying off his "trick" pitches and waited for his soft fastball, and his numbers started to inflate. The question is whether he can trick AL hitters any longer. He'll have the closer's job for the first couple months in Chicago, no doubt, and very well might keep the job all year, so he has some solid value. We expect an inflation in his overall numbers this year, around 3.00ERA/1.15WHIP/30+saves if he keeps the job. He's being drafted around the 11th and 12th round, and that's fine value.

8. Braden Looper - New York Mets : Highs: Well, we'll give him this: he's dependable. For three straight years he's pitched 80+ innings per year. Over that time, his ERA was just over 3.00 and his WHIP 1.26. The Mets have a better - if not good, yet - team, and Shea Stadium always helps pitchers like Looper. Lows: But we're still talking about a guy who struggled to have the closer's job with the Marlins in 2003, and has a career 3.53ERA/1.36WHIP. Hitters still hit .266 against him in 2004, and he's still never had 30 or more saves in a season before. He's overrated by fantasy players generally. Can he have a standout year? Absolutely, but why gamble on him when you can gamble more intelligently elsewhere? He's already over 30 years old, so odds are that we've seen what he's capable of as a pitcher, unless he has a career year. Expect a season of 3.00ERA/1.20+WHIP/25+ saves. He's being drafted in the 10th to 11th round, which is fine for a #2 or #3 closer.

9. Danny Kolb - Atlanta Braves : Highs: Leo Mazzone Alert! Leo Mazzone Alert!! Leo Mazzone Alert!!! Yes, we're high on Leo Mazzone. The guy's only proved it for over a decade now that he's made a deal with the Devil to create magic that few pitching coaches could ever possibly do. Now he gets to work with Danny Kolb. The past two years he's averaged a 2.47ERA/1.21WHIP for the Brewers, along with 30 saves per year on average (39 in 2004). Now, he's on a team in the Braves that will, oh, I don't know, win some games actually, and Mazzone looking over his shoulder. A season of 2.90ERA/1.20WHIP/40+saves seems reachable. Lows: He doesn't have a devestating fastball by any stretch of the imagination, and he really started to stall badly in the second half of the season (4.88ERA). If he were still pitching for the Brewers this season, we'd be down on him. But Mazzone is still Mazzone, and that means he'll fix whatever is wrong with Kolb. He's being drafted in the 9th round on average in your typical league.

10. Guillermo Mota - Florida Marlins : Highs: He's been out-and-out great at times as a middle reliever in his career, and now he joins a solid Marlins team that should challenege the Braves for the NL East (who are we kidding...the Braves always win that division). In 2003 and 2004 with the Dodgers, he averaged a 2.06ERA/1.12WHIP. He's been good, there's no doubt about it. Lows: But, he is yet another middle reliever who's moving to the closer role steadily for the first time. When he had some attempts at being it with the Marlins in 2004 (after the Dodgers traded him), his ERA bloated up to 4.81. Not all middle relievers can be a closer. But we're not saying he can't, but he might have some hiccups along the way. Look at Octavio Dotel, for example. Yet, maybe Mota turns out to be more Brad Lidge than Dotel when all is said and done (minus the strikeouts). Expect a season of 3.10ERA/1.10WHIP/35+saves, and he's going in the late 9th to early 10th round in your average draft.

Other Options Available at Closer:
1. Eddie Guardado - Seattle Mariners : The injury bug seems to have attacked him and refused to let go the past year and change. He has hamstring issues (which can linger) already this season, but should start the season. The Mariners have improved (offensively at least), so they should provide more save chances. But there are better options than the injury-risk "No-Longer-Everyday" Eddie. He might get 30+ svaes if healthy. He's going in the 10th and 11th rounds of a draft typically. We suggest going with Danny Kolb over Eddie.

2. Danny Graves - Cincinnati Reds : If you look at only his career as a closer, he's never been a dominant one. ERA is always above 3.00 usually, and a WHIP over 1.25. Sometimes those numbers can be a great deal worse, though, so we don't suggest him highly. He's fine as a #3 closer, or an emergency grab as a #2 closer. He's being drafted anywhere from the 10th to 12th round.

3. Danys Baez - Tampa Bay Devil Rays : It is the D-Rays after all, which means he's not going to get 50 saves anytime soon. He's going to post numbers similar to Graves, but is more often drafted after Graves. Might as well wait and take Baez --- the later you take him, the greater the value.

4. Chad Cordero/Luis Ayala- Washington Nationals : They might spilt the closer's duties, but if you need a few stray saves, you can always grab one and milk a few saves. Cordero seems to be the better option to grab the job fully. He's being drafted in the 13th to 14th round usually.

5. Bob Wickman - Cleveland Indians : Missed all of 2003 due to injury, after a below-average 2002 4.46ERA/1.51WHIP), and 2004 wasn't much better. He has the job, so he's good for saves if anything, and Cleveland should offer him plenty of chances. He's being drafted in the 13th and 14th rounds on average.

Some Middle Relievers to Possibly Draft:
(we're just rattling off the names...just trust us stat-wise they're solid)
1. Mike Gonzalez - Pittsburgh Pirates (check him out in "deepers" section above)
2. Akinori Otsuka - San Diego Padres
3. Scott Linebrink - San Diego Padres
4. Tom Gordon - New York Yankees
5. Ryan Madson - Philadelphia Phillies
6. Matt Mantei - Boston Red Sox (if healthy)
7. Ray King - St. Louis Cardinals (if healthy)
8. LaTroy Hawkins - Chicago Cubs (will start season as Cubs closer...might keep the job if he's solid)
9. Juan Rincon - Minnesota Twins
10. Brendan Donnelly - Los Angeles Angels