Top Ten Fantasy Busts in 2005...

We're looking at players that typically have been drafted in the top 10 rounds, and who we see as underperforming on some steep level from what they did in 2004. Sort of like Britney Spears has been doing the past year from her previous highs.

#10: Ivan Rodriguez: He should still have a solid season, but 2004 he batted .334 --- 28 points higher than his career average of .306. If you think a catcher with 14 seasons on his knees and turning 34 years old this year can do it again, God love ya, because we just don't see it happening. Post all-star break in '04, his batting average dipped over 80 points from the pre all-star levels. Case closed.

#9: Javy Lopez: Again, another case of a veteran catcher who very well could have a solid season in 2005. That said, Lopez is already 34 years old, he already has 13 years on his knees, and his numbers in 2004 took a solid tumble from his 2003 contract year with the Braves. People forget that Lopez in the four years before his career 2003 season averaged shy of 16 homers a year, 63 RBI, and only a .276 average. You feel like risking it all on an aging catcher? Good for you, because we don't.

#8: Carlos Guillen: Ahh, nothing like career years, huh? Here we had Carlos Guillen, going undrafted in 95% of fantasy leagues everywhere at the start of 2004, and then Guillen went on a nice little tear all season. Hmmm. Let's look at the numbers, shall we? In his three previous years before 2004, he averaged a .265/7HRs/54RBI. Which Guillen do you think is the real Guillen, then? 2004's Guillen, or the Guillen that the Seattle Mariners gave up on after years of mediocrity?

#7: Miguel Tejada: Don't get freaked out. We're not saying Miggy's going to be batting .245 this season and drviing in 35 RBI. We're just saying get off the pipe and realize he's NOT driving in 150 again. His previous career high in RBI was 131, and that was already bloated for him. A season of 120 RBI would be solid. And his average should dip back a bit, to the .280 to .300 range, as opposed to 10 to 20 points higher than .300. His career average is .276 --- so his 2004 average of .311 was better than should ever be expected.

#6: Carlos Delgado: We all know he didn't have the greatest season in 2004, but changing teams, changing leagues, and struggling through spring training (while it doesn't mean much) doesn't instill the most confidence in a player trying to bounce back from one of their worst seasons. He's turning 33 years old, so he has time to bounce back, but don't expect the Delgado of .330/45+HRs/120RBI days. Maybe next year, but not this year.

#5: Randy Johnson: Again, as we said with Tejada, don't get freaked out. We're not screaming "CHAN-HO PARK!!!" here. But the swap into the American League from the National League affects just about EVERY starter for the negative on some level. There is no logical way Johnson posts an ERA below 3.00 unless he has a career year. Two of his last three seasons with the Mariners (his last stint in the AL) he posted an ERA above 3.67, including one season with an ERA of 4.33. Are we saying he does that again? No. Are we saying he's not going to be as dominating as 2004? Absolutely.

#4: Roger Clemens: As opposed to Mr. Porn Star Name, with Clemens we expect a steady drop off from his 2004 numbers. The jump to the NL from the AL was a positive one (as it should be going that way), but as the season progressed his ERA climbed 79 points from 2.62 pre all-star to 3.41 post all-star break, as hitters adusted to him and he tired. The Astros shouldn't be quite as strong this year, so a significant drop-off should occur this season. Still, he's a solid pick, just don't expect him to anchor your team.

#3: Adrian Beltre: As we said in our third basemen review (check it out below), we still consider him a stud third baseman, but we have serious doubts. 2004 was a career year in just about every category --- and it just happened to be his contract year. No doubt a coincidence. No doubt. His BA last year was 60 points higher than his career average, and his HRs and RBI totals were through the roof. He's still young, but we don't think he's worth a second round draft pick where he's going in most drafts.

#2: Carl Pavano: Here's a lock if there ever was a lock. Pavano is a nice guy. He's shagged Alyssa Milano. We credit him for that. But his career ERA is 4.21 --- while he posted a 3.00 ERA in 2004. He's not a strikeout pitcher. He's a righty in Yankee Stadium. But forget that. Forget any of that. What's important is that he's played his entire career in baseball hotbeds of Montreal and Florida, and now he's gone to the Yankees. There's a reason young pitchers crash and burn when making that leap. Javier Vazquez was just the most recent example. Jeff Weaver held that title before that. Pavano very well migth be the most recent member of that dubious club.

And the #1 fantasy bust in 2005 is....
#1: Barry Bonds: Yes, you know by now he's going to miss some time this season. But why draft him? Really, if you look at how we crunched the numbers down the the outfielder breakdown we posted below, Bonds is overdue to crash and burn statistically. Now that we know he's going to miss a month --- or the entire season if the glaring spotlight on his cheating in every facet of life heats up (including while playing Monopoly and Scrabble as well, we don't doubt) --- why would you bother taking on that risk? Spend your draft picks on someone who you know will produce. Don't spend it wishing on an over-40 year old player who has steroid issues and is sure to miss many games this year. It just doesn't make sense.