Things That Make You Go "Hmmm..."

So Mariano Rivera is imploding quicker these days than an old Las Vegas casino. For all of you that invested an early draft pick on Mo, congratulations on that desperate feeling you're having right now.

So, let's look at the numbers. Since July on 2004, Mo's averaged an ERA of well over 6.00 against the Red Sox, including a half dozen blown saves. By now you know he's had four consecutive blown saves against the Red Sox (including two in the ALCS), and the Yankee fans have finally turned on him.

Hmmm.

First: Mo better stop pretending that it was Red Sox fans booing him yesterday, as he said to the media. Red Sox fans were clapping and cheering him in the stands from what we saw when we watched the game on TV. Yankee fans have right to be pissed off at him right now, as the Yanks biggest rival and biggest competitor seems to own him.

Second: Mo better stop pretending that there's nothing to the Red Sox owning him, that it's just a coincidence. Uh, yeah, and the Yankees didn't own Pedro Martinez. Suuure.

As for fantasy fans, here's what's most disturbing. While Rivera has 12 blown saves against the Red Sox alone out of his last 50 blown saves, what's not being reported as often is that he also has 8 blown saves in that same time against the Los Angeles (Anaheim) Angels. This is disturbing for fantasy players on levels not seen since Mark Mulder sucked the entire second half of last season. Why? Because the Yankees face the Angels 1/3 the amount of time the face the Red Sox --- and the Red Sox and Angels have one thing in common: they're both post-season caliber teams.

Let's break down the numbers: In his career, Mo has a career 1.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 41 career games against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 2.54ERA/1.07WHIP in 41 games against Toronto, 2.44ERA/1.25WHIP in 41 games against Texas, yet against teams that have been playoff caliber for year after year lately, like Anaheim, he's a different pitcher. In 6 games against Atlanta, he has a 5.40ERA/1.05WHIP, against Anaheim in 30 career games he has 4.50ERA/1.39WHIP, and against the Red Sox he holds a 3.05ERA/1.29WHIP. Yet, over the last three seasons against the Red Sox, his ERA balloons to 3.94, and his WHIP 1.41. Not quite hall of fame numbers, are they?

Listen, for years Mo was as good as it got for a closer. But his career is on the downslope, not the peak. He still very well might have a good year, but don't expect a great year. We're not rushing to a rash decision here after two bad games. We'll even guarantee that he'll have a stretch of dominance during this season. But the end result for his numbers will still be less than what was deserved for where you may have drafted him. The numbers don't lie. Against playoff caliber teams or in games where the situation is high pressure, he's a different pitcher than the guy who faces against creampuff teams like the D-Rays.

Here's our advice for those who drafted Mo. Hold him for now. Don't freak and try to trade him for the cheap right now. He'll have a stretch against puff teams soon enough where he'll beat up on them. When he does, and when "experts" start believing he's swell again, then make your move to trade him for a Brad Lidge or other dominant closer still in their prime. Buy low/sell high. Mo's value obviously is down right now. No need to sell right now. And he's still good enough to play full time.

As for those who don't have Mo, but need a closer, now's the time to make a trade offer. Odds are the owner of Mo won't trade him for cheaper than they'd have expected a few weeks ago, but there's always an antsy owner out there who swears this is the Apocalypse, and need to get rid of him while he still has some value. If you're desperate for a closer, and Mo's owner in your league has extra closers - so Mo would be expendable for them - try trading for him a little cheaper than you'd expect typically. Most Mo owners won't go for it, but now's as good a time as you can get to try to swindle Mo's owner for a cheaper player. Yahoo, for example, has Mo ranked 47th overall. In this case, if you're trying to cheap Mo's owner, look to trade a player ranked in the 60s to late 70's for him.

That said, Mo has to face the Red Sox next week. For all we know, he has another implosion left in him, so his stock can still tumble, and he'll be even cheaper.

So, there you go. If you own him, don't freak, and don't trade him for cheap right now.

If you don't own him, go after Mo's owner for a cheap trade and see if they're freaking.

We try to help both sides here at Waaay Back!