Newbies of the Week...

This week we're including some old Newbies from days gone by who might finally be reasserting themselves as Born-Again Newbies. And for that, we start with...

Mogran Ensberg. Starting the season with a .381 average/1HR/2RBI/3runs, he seems to have grabbed the starting third base job from Mike Lamb for the Astros. Going into 2004, Ensberg was a hot sleeper in many leagues, as everyone was swooning over 25HRs in just 385 ABs in 2003. For all that adoration, he ended up tanking. It was if he was the poor man's Pat Burrell last year. Burrell was a hot commodity going into 2004, and ended up letting many managers down, and to a lesser extent Ensberg followed suit. So who's to say Ensberg doesn't have it in him to bounce back to levels he approached in 2003? In his career, Ensberg only has around 950 ABs; Pat Burrell has over 2500 ABs --- but Burrell is only one year younger than Ensberg. So why does everyone assume Burrell has a bounce-back left in him, but not Ensberg? Listen, Burrell has a much higher ceiling in his talent level. He has the ability - the ability - to put up MVP type numbers. But Ensberg has the talent to post very solid numbers --- close to a .300/20+HRs/90+RBI in a full-time gig, assuming he doesn't starting over-thinking his at-bats as he did the first half of last season.

Newbie #2 this week we mentioned in our "Top Fives" column under the "Hey There" section. Chad Tracy's flying under the radar in many leagues, but he's already proven he has the ability to maintain a quality average throughout a season, as he did in 2004. As we said earlier, he's possibly this year's Lyle Overbay - a guy who needs to turn a few of his doubles into homers. He's only 24 years old (25 in May), and at 6'2" and 200lbs, he's not some shrinking violet slap hitter. He has the phyical shape to hammer out 20+ HRs, and very well could do that this year. By qualifying at both first base and third base, it allows you to use him in an emergency at two positions on your roster. If you have a shallow bench or a mediocre first baseman/third baseman, then taking a flyer on Tracy can't hurt.

Brad Halsey seems to finally be getting his chance to shine a bit with the D-Backs as well with Chad Tracy, though on the mound. Once a prized prospect with the Yankees when they actually had a farm system with talent, they of course traded him. In 10.0IP this season, he has 9 Ks (great ratio so far) and a 1.80 ERA with one victory. There's a reason he was so highly valued as a prospect and why he commanded such a high price --- and playing in the relative anonymity of Arizona (as opposed to New York) should allow him to adjust to the majors at his own pace. He's a pitcher who has solid strikeout ability and is still only just 24 years old, so if you're desperate for some pitching, he's an option to keep an eye on.

Another young pitcher looking to turn the corner on his career is Erik Bedard of the Orioles. Going into the 2004 season he was looked at as a deep sleeper, and struggled with his command --- which we swear is a rite of passage for young pitchers, that they all have to struggle with their command. But it says something that the Orioles didn't trade him in the off-season (while they did other young pitchers of their's). He has a strong inning-to-K ratio, and was dominant in his first start of the season for the O's. Only 26 years old, he might be at that age where he turns that corner and puts up very respectable numbers this year. Like many young picthers, he'll still have his bad days, but he's someone you need to pay attention to for the time being.

Top 51 Players in Fantasy Baseball Right Now...

This is based upon right now --- with some appreciation toward past performance. So, alas, Pat Burrell hasn't yet cracked the top 50, even though he's one of the hottest players right now. But There's always time, Mr. Burrell, to crack the top 50...

1. Ichiro Suzuki - OF: Vaulting from #11 to #1 since our last ranking. That's what you get when you're hitting .478, stole 3 bases, have 7 runs, and the rest of the "elite" players are stinking up the joint to start the season.
2. Vlad Guerrero - OF: Just starting to turn it on...
3. Carlos Beltran - OF: So much for playing in Shea Stadium, huh?
4. Alex Rodriguez - 3B: Two stolen bases this early is a nice sign. The horrible RBI total isn't.
5. Albert Pujols - 1B: Took him long enough to finally hit his first HR of the season. Shouldn't be his last, either.
6. Miguel Tejada - SS: Come on, Miggy. Anytime you want to hit a HR, you just go ahead now, okay? Otherwise, we like your stats so far.
7. Bobby Abreu - OF: 8 runs, some nice RBI totals, at least he's been consistent, which can't be said of most players to start the season.
8. Jason Schmidt - SP: 13.0IP/16Ks/2wins...and fantastic ERA/WHIP numbers as well. #1 pitcher right now.
9. Alfonso Soriano - 2B
10. David Ortiz - 1B
11. Carl Crawford - OF: Is on pace for close to 100 steals for 2005. We doubt he'll crack 100, but that speed is why he'll linger this high on the rankings.
12. Pedro Martinez - SP
13. Derek Jeter - SS: Possibly the only "big name" SS that's hitting right now.
14. Brad Lidge - RP: Huge move in the rankings, as he's the best closer in baseball right now.
15. Aramis Ramirez - 3B
16. Manny Ramirez - OF: One of a multitude of players off to a slow start this season.
17. Todd Helton - 1B
18. Jim Thome - 1B: Could either Helton or Thome possible go homer-less all season? Yeah, we know it won't happen, but geez, come on people...
19. Johan Santana - SP: Not the greatest ERA, but he's always a slow starter.
20. Josh Beckett - SP: Better numbers than Santana right now...but Santana has history on his side, so he gets the nod ahead.
21. Carlos Zambrano - SP
22. Gary Sheffield - OF
23. Aubrey Huff - 1B/3B/OF: Nice all-around numbers so far on the season. Gotta love that eligibility at three positions.
24. Jeff Kent - 2B: Would be top 10 if he was higher last ranking...but he's rocketing up this list. Great start to the season.
25. Roger Clemens - SP: What else is new?
26. Randy Johnson - SP: Is that rust we see, or just a slow start? Time will tell.
27. Scott Rolen - 3B
28. Hideki Matsui - OF
29. Jake Peavy - SP: So much for 2004 being a fluke as some "experts" (not us) warned.
30. Adrian Beltre - 3B: Good to see some pop finally come out of his bat to match his average.
31. Joe Nathan - RP: 2nd best closer in baseball right now. Moving up the list solidly.
32. Miguel Cabrera - OF
33. Ben Sheets - SP
34. Michael Young - SS
35. Carlos Delgado - 1B: Spring Training is past him...and let's hope all his hitting troubles as well.
36. Carlos Guillen - SS: So far showing that 2004 wasn't a fluke. So far...
37. Francisco Rodriguez - RP: 3rd best closer in baseball right now, and closing fast...
38. Tim Hudson - SP: Low K totals, but solid otherwise.
39. Mark Teixeira - 1B
40. Nomar Garciaparra - SS
41. Paul Konerko - 1B
42. Jim Edmonds - OF
43. Carlos Lee - OF: He's still undervalued...except by his genius owners.
44. Jose Reyes - 2B/SS: Very solid average, still hasn't utilized his speed yet, but he will.
45. Eric Chavez - 3B: Hank Blalock is still nipping at his heels to pass him...
46. Troy Glaus - 3B: Would've been much higher if his past history wasn't so horrible at times. But he can skyrocket if he keeps this up.
47. Richie Sexson - 1B: It's a battle this year between Sexson and Glaus as to who has the bigger bounce-back year. Right now, Glaus leads.
48. Billy Wagner - RP
49. Octavio Dotel - RP
50. Jason Varitek - C: Best hitting catcher to start the season.
And Mr. 51 this week is.....
51. Pat Burrell - OF: At the top we said he didn't crack the top 50. We didn't say he didn't make the list. Can't deny that he's been the best player so far this season so far. If he reverts back to his 2002 form, then his owners are going to be ecstatic.

EXCLUDED THIS WEEK: (((the horror!!!)))
Melvin Mora (we bare knew ya)
Jimmy Rollins
Rafael Furcal
Mariano Rivera
Keith Foulke
Oliver Perez
Marcus Giles
Victor Martinez
Adam Dunn
Juan Pierre (you need to steal a base to make the list...)

Past Newbie Updates...

To update where some of our past Newbies are after we said you should keep an eye on them --- we're showing you we're not running away from pointing these people out to you. We're not shying away if they suck worse than a Jennifer Lopez movie. We'll back our errors.

That said, after week one, we look fairly sharp here, don't we? Here's a look at our Newbie starters so far...

Gavin Floyd had his first start of the season on Saturday -- pitched 7.0 innings, allowed only 3 hits and 1 run, while striking out 2 and getting the win. Those translate into a 1.29 ERA and 0.43 WHIP on the young season. Hey, we're not saying Floyd going to be that lights out every week. He's young, and that means he'll have games where he's lit up more than Whitney Houston. But he'll have more than his fair share of games like he putched on Saturday. The biggest problem looming is Vincente Padilla coming off the DL soon. With Charlie Manuel seemingly preferring veterans over young superstars in-the-waiting (Paging Chase Utley...paging Mr. Utley...), you have to wonder whether Manuel will ignore anything Floyd does that's lights-out and still put Padilla back into the rotation --- sending Floyd back to the bullpen. Reminds us of Johan Santana's first few years with the Twins, where he was dominant in his occassional start, but the Twins kept putting him back in the bullpen to allow some veteran pitcher to start instead. That said, ride Floyd as long as he's in the rotation, and hold him on your bench IF Manuel puts Padilla back in the rotation. Don't drop Floyd if you don't have to.

For another one of our Newbie sleepers, Noah Lowry pitched 6.0 innings on Friday against the Rockies, allowing 2 earned runs and 4 hits, striking out 2. For the young season he has en ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.17. He didn't get the win as the Giants bullpen allowed an 8 run 7th inning once Lowry left the game --- blowing his sure-shot at victory. But considering his solid amount of starts last season, Lowry is taking off right where you'd like to see him. We still strongly suggest you pick him up or trade for him on the cheap if you could use a starter, since he should have his slot in the rotation all season, and he's a young pitcher on the rise.

David Bush had some performance anxiety for game #1 you could say, but it still wasn't terrible. Considering that he was facing the Red Sox offense, he pitched 5.0 innings and allowed 3 earned runs, allowing only4 hits and walking 2. While Gavin Floyd shut down a powerful offense in the Cardinals for his season debut, Bush couldn't do quite the same against the Red Sox. But we did say he was a deeeeep sleeper, and for that he wasn't bad at all, we'd say. We still suggest you keep an eye on him. If he can throw his curve ball a bit more in the right moments of a count, and not rely on his fastball --- which the Red Sox were jumping all over --- he could get better results. And not all offenses he'll face this year are the Red Sox lineup.


Look for the next Newbies of the Week update later today or tomorrow. Also, the next listing of top 51 players in fantasy baseball list should be posted sometime in that same time period.

The Top Fives of the Week...

Here's our first weekly round-up of the "Top Fives" --- Top Five Best Hitters for the Week, Top Five Starting Pitchers for the Week, Top Five Relievers for the Week, Top Five Busts for the Week, and Top Five "Hello There" Players of the Week. Let's get to it shall, we?

Top Five Best Hitters for the Week: April 3rd - April 8th, 2005.

1. Joe Randa - 3B: .429/3HRs/8RBI/5 runs. Gotta love those career middle-of-the-road type players that have a scorching hot week to start off the season, giving fantasy players hope that this is that guy's career year, a la Rich Aurilia a few years back. He did have over 100 RBI back in 2000 for the Royals, but his career best in HRs is 16, back in 1999 and 2003. If you're desperate for a 3B, he's a fine choice considering the park and lineup he plays in, and he's good for a solid average generally. But don't go after Randa if you're expecting Arod type numbers here.

2. Hideki Matsui - OF: .438/3HRs/7RBI/5 runs. Now here's a guy who should be hot all season, a guy who was a steal in the 7th-8th rounds and beyond in your typical draft. He's improved every season he'd played in America, and has continued his scorching pace to lead off this season. We strongly suggest trying to trade for Matsui while his value is still relatively cheap --- if you don't have him. If you do have him, then you already know you're a genius.

3. Luis Gonzalez - OF: .538/2HRs/5RBI/ 6runs. We have to be honest here, we didn't expect Gonzo to be coming back gangbusters this season. He's getting old, he's in a thinner lineup, he's coming off injury --- but we're willing to be wrong for this week, and maybe longer. It's nice to see a good guy start off strong. Still, we're not getting ourselves all lathered up just yet.

4. Ichiro Suzuki - OF: .533/1RBI/4 runs/3 steals. The ".400 Watch" for the 2005 season began the second the 2004 season ended, and Ichiro didn't hurt the buzz by having his blistering spring training. We don't think Ted Williams has to worry about Ichiro joining him in the .400 club, but we expect another batting title from Mr. Suzuki this season --- and a return to 40 to 50 steals. A great first week to the season for him.

5. Jose Valentin - 3B: .500/2HRs/8RBI/3 runs/1 steal. Nice way to win over your new team by smacking the ball around like Ty Cobb for week one of the season. He's still available in many leagues, and always good for his HRs and even his share of RBI, but we're still not buying his average staying over .300 through April. A career .244 hitter coming off a 2004 season where he batted .216 will do that to you and your confidence in him.


Top Five Starting Pitchers for the Week:

1. Jake Peavy: 6.2IP/10Ks/0.00ERA/0.90WHIP: You hate to see a guy pitch such a gem and not get the win from his team, but a fantastic start to the season for 2004's ERA title winner. Peavy's stock for some reason was lower than expected in many leagues coming into this season, but he's a great #1 pitcher to have for your staff. And we'll always love him pitching at Petrco Park. If you have him, feel proud.

2. Josh Beckett: 6.0IP/6Ks/0.00ERA/0.83WHIP/1 win: A few less Ks than Peavy, but instead got the win. Take it or leave it. Many are still frightened off by Beckett's past blister problems, but he's still only 24 years old. You can't ignore that type of promise, and Beckett's showing you why.

3. Roger Clemens: 7.0IP/9Ks/1.29ERA/0.71WHIP/1 win: The old man is showing the kids he's still got gas left in the tank. If the Astros are going to go anywhere this year, they better hope Clemens keeps it up. With some experts saying Clemens should have packed it up after last season, no doubt Clemens will use that as motivation to prove them wrong. That said, if Clemens keeps this up for April and thye beginning of May, we wouldn't be against you trading him for someone younger while his stock is still high.

4. Aaron Harang: 6.1IP/5Ks/0.00ERA/0.63WHIP/1 win: Harang's still relatively young for a pitcher, and if he's ever going to break out and be a star, it's going to be this season or never most likely. Good way to start off the season, and help the Reds where they're at their weakest - pitching. Don't expect an ERA title this season, but he has the goods to be a mid to high 3.00ERA pitcher over the season if he puts it all together.

5. Jeremy Bonderman: 7.0IP/7Ks/1.29ERA/1.14WHIP/1 win: The hottest pitching sleeper coming into this season lived up to the initial hype, having a pretty dominating game to start off his season. As Dimitri Young said, the Tigers aren't the Kittens anymore (least to start off the season), and Bonderman's one of the biggest reasons why. If you drafted him, you should feel damn good right now --- and DON'T trade him because you worry his value will slip. It should only increase as the season progresses.


Top Five Relievers for the Week: Hell, your guess would be as good as ours after such a horrible week of pitching for closers across baseball. They've stunk worse than fish left out in the hot summer sun. But we've got 5 winners nonetheless.

1. Dan Kolb: 3.0IP/3 saves/ 3.00ERA/0.67WHIP/2Ks: Yeah, yeah, he allowed a run this week. But he's the only closer in baseball to convert all three save chances he faced, and we give him a round of applause for that, since apparently everyone else was afraid to try it sometime. Some are down on Kolb because he doesn't have blazing stuff...but as we always say, he's got Leo Mazzone, Pitching Coach God on his side. So are you really going to doubt him?

2. Brad Lidge: 2.1IP/2 saves/0.00ERA/0.86WHIP/3Ks: Only thing keeping Lidge from getting the #1 spot this week was simple save chances given to him. Lidge showed why he's a dominant closer this week, and didn't let any fantasy players down. The Astros might not be as dominant this year, but Lidge might very well be the best closer in the NL this year when all is said and done.

3. Miguel Batista: 2.1IP/2 saves/o.00ERA/0.43WHIP/1K: While veteran closers apparently thought they were still pitching in spring training, the converted starting pitcher who everyone wants to doubt didn't allow an earned run. The Jays aren't a pushover either, so he very well might crack the high 30s for saves this year. Do we expect a 0.00 ERA by October? Uhhh, no. But he's been a great steal for all you who drafted him in the middle-to-late rounds of your drafts.

4. Mike Gonzalez: 3.1IP/5Ks/0.00ERA/0.60WHIP: If he pitched for the Yankees, everyone on ESPN would be clammoring that he's the most dominant middle-reliver in baseball. But because he plays for the Pirates, have of the fantasy baseball world still says, "Who that?" If Jose Mesa stinks up the closers role - which is always a possibility - than you're looking at your next closer here, and you're looking at a great one at that.

5. Danys Baez: 3.1IP/2Ks/0.00ERA/1.20WHIP/2 wins/1 save: You have to be euphoric when your closer chalks up two wins in a week --- and he didn't even blow the game! Now that's being lucky. Baez is another one of those closers that was one of the last off the draft board, yet still should put up solid numbers. A great steal for those who took him.


Top Five Busts for the Week:

Hitters:
1. Albert Pujols - 1B: .231/0 HRs/1RBI/1 run: We hate doing this to Pujols, and we know it's just a flat start and he'll round into form any day now, but when you're taken first in many drafts (or second), you don't expect almost nothing in return for your pick. Don't worry if you have him on your squad. He's healthy, and he'll Turn it around soon enough.

2. Alex Rodriguez - 3B: .176/1HRS/2RBI/3 runs/1 caught stealing: Same deal as with Pujols -- you expect some quick returns on your high investment in the guy, but again, don't worry. Worse average than Pujols, but hey, he did hit a HR, right?

3. Manny Ramirez - OF: .125/0 HRs/2RBI/2 runs: What is it with the huge power hitters on good teams snoozing to begin the season? While David Ortiz has been red-hot behind him in the lineup, Manny's still trying to catch his rythm. Still one of the best hitters in baseball and should be fine soon.

4. Bobby Abreu - OF: .176/o HRS/o RBI/4 runs/ 0 steals: We can understand no HRs after one week, because those can come in bunches. But no RBI at all? You're in a pretty good lineup there, Abreu -- anytime you want to start driving in runs, you feel free to do so, alright? Still, we wouldn't trade him and his 30/30 ability anytime soon.

5. Scott Rolen - 3B: .154/o HRs/1RBI/3 runs: The best hitting third baseman is also still hitting the snooze button to start the season. While he shouldn't have been drafted as high as the top 4 on our list here, you still expect more out of him...and he will produce soon. Too good of a hitter not to.

Pitchers:
1. Mariano Rivera - RP: 1.2IP/3Ks/10.80ERA/4.80WHIP/1 win/0 saves: He got the win because he blew his first blown save against the Red Sox --- which the Yankees came back and won and initially made people forget Mo's troubles. Blown save number two made that forgtefulness hard to do. Has nowhere to go but up from here.

2. Trevor Hoffman - RP: 1.2IP/0 Ks/21.60ERA/3.60WHIP/0 wins/0 saves: April's usually his worst month, but sweet mother this is a bad start. He's getting older, but he still has some gas left in the tank, but starting off in Colorado can't help matters either. He's out of the thin air, so maybe he can start turning it around.

3. Roy Oswalt - SP: 6.0IP/2Ks/9.00ERA/1.33WHIP/0 wins: You'd have to have been at least hoping for some Ks if he's going to stink up the joint, and he didn't even accomplish that very well either, striking out only 2 in week one. Still, one of the best when on his game, but another lackluster pitcher starting off the season.

4. Keith Foulke - RP: 3.0IP/1K/9.00ERA/2.00WHIP/1 save: Hey, at least he got a save, right? More than can be said of either Mo or Hoffman. But the bug afflicting closers across baseball struck Foulke as well, and he couldn't overcome it. Unlike Hoffman and Rivera, though, Foulke is a bit younger and without injuries in his past so you have less to worry about in the overall package.

5. John Smoltz - SP: 1.2IP/1K/32.40ERA/4.80WHIP/0 wins: He should be #1 this week, but considering it was his first time in a long time back as a starter, we'll give him a break....for week one. But when you only see 1.2IP for the week, you do a double-take, wondering if he's still a reliever. He can't do much worse in his next starts.


Top Five "Hello There" Players: These are players that are generally young players looking to make a breakthrough this season, or just starting out.

1. Jorge Cantu - 2B & 3B: .467/3HRs/6RBI/3 runs: If you drafted him, you were really did your homework. And if you still haven't picked him up, well, you better have a deep bench to not take him. He was a star in the D-Rays farm system, and now getting his chance to play full-time, he's showing what he's got. Good to see.

2. Clint Barmes - 2B & SS: .400/2HRs/4RBI/4 runs: Yeah, yeah, we were all over him at the start of the season like a fat woman at a dessert buffet, but even we're a bit surprised at how quickly he got out of the gate. He's starting to catch some buzz (as most Rockies prospects do), but if he's still available abd you're in need of some middle infield help, he might be worth a look. Don't say we didn't tell you.

3. Aaron Miles - 2B: .583/0HR/2RBI/4 runs: Not jacking the ball out of the ballpark, but slapping it just about everwhere else in the park to begin the year. If you're looking for a cheap 2B that's a free agent most likely, Miles will help your average, hitting around .300 most likely. Not a HR threat, but runs, average, and a solid amount of RBI doesn't hurt.

4. Nick Swisher - OF: .222/2HRs/3RBI/3 runs: Not the greatest average to begin the season, but the early odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors at the end of the season. This year's Jason Bay, perhaps?

5. Chad Tracy - 1B & 3B: .467/1HR/2RBI/2 runs: Shown he can maintain an average throughout the season last year in his first full season, and if he could turn a few more doubles into homers, he might crack 20 this year and drive in 80+. He's still not in the greatest lineup, but he's still only 24 years old right now. He's available in most leagues, but he bears watching. This year's Lyle Overbay maybe.

Things That Make You Go "Hmmm..."

So Mariano Rivera is imploding quicker these days than an old Las Vegas casino. For all of you that invested an early draft pick on Mo, congratulations on that desperate feeling you're having right now.

So, let's look at the numbers. Since July on 2004, Mo's averaged an ERA of well over 6.00 against the Red Sox, including a half dozen blown saves. By now you know he's had four consecutive blown saves against the Red Sox (including two in the ALCS), and the Yankee fans have finally turned on him.

Hmmm.

First: Mo better stop pretending that it was Red Sox fans booing him yesterday, as he said to the media. Red Sox fans were clapping and cheering him in the stands from what we saw when we watched the game on TV. Yankee fans have right to be pissed off at him right now, as the Yanks biggest rival and biggest competitor seems to own him.

Second: Mo better stop pretending that there's nothing to the Red Sox owning him, that it's just a coincidence. Uh, yeah, and the Yankees didn't own Pedro Martinez. Suuure.

As for fantasy fans, here's what's most disturbing. While Rivera has 12 blown saves against the Red Sox alone out of his last 50 blown saves, what's not being reported as often is that he also has 8 blown saves in that same time against the Los Angeles (Anaheim) Angels. This is disturbing for fantasy players on levels not seen since Mark Mulder sucked the entire second half of last season. Why? Because the Yankees face the Angels 1/3 the amount of time the face the Red Sox --- and the Red Sox and Angels have one thing in common: they're both post-season caliber teams.

Let's break down the numbers: In his career, Mo has a career 1.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 41 career games against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 2.54ERA/1.07WHIP in 41 games against Toronto, 2.44ERA/1.25WHIP in 41 games against Texas, yet against teams that have been playoff caliber for year after year lately, like Anaheim, he's a different pitcher. In 6 games against Atlanta, he has a 5.40ERA/1.05WHIP, against Anaheim in 30 career games he has 4.50ERA/1.39WHIP, and against the Red Sox he holds a 3.05ERA/1.29WHIP. Yet, over the last three seasons against the Red Sox, his ERA balloons to 3.94, and his WHIP 1.41. Not quite hall of fame numbers, are they?

Listen, for years Mo was as good as it got for a closer. But his career is on the downslope, not the peak. He still very well might have a good year, but don't expect a great year. We're not rushing to a rash decision here after two bad games. We'll even guarantee that he'll have a stretch of dominance during this season. But the end result for his numbers will still be less than what was deserved for where you may have drafted him. The numbers don't lie. Against playoff caliber teams or in games where the situation is high pressure, he's a different pitcher than the guy who faces against creampuff teams like the D-Rays.

Here's our advice for those who drafted Mo. Hold him for now. Don't freak and try to trade him for the cheap right now. He'll have a stretch against puff teams soon enough where he'll beat up on them. When he does, and when "experts" start believing he's swell again, then make your move to trade him for a Brad Lidge or other dominant closer still in their prime. Buy low/sell high. Mo's value obviously is down right now. No need to sell right now. And he's still good enough to play full time.

As for those who don't have Mo, but need a closer, now's the time to make a trade offer. Odds are the owner of Mo won't trade him for cheaper than they'd have expected a few weeks ago, but there's always an antsy owner out there who swears this is the Apocalypse, and need to get rid of him while he still has some value. If you're desperate for a closer, and Mo's owner in your league has extra closers - so Mo would be expendable for them - try trading for him a little cheaper than you'd expect typically. Most Mo owners won't go for it, but now's as good a time as you can get to try to swindle Mo's owner for a cheaper player. Yahoo, for example, has Mo ranked 47th overall. In this case, if you're trying to cheap Mo's owner, look to trade a player ranked in the 60s to late 70's for him.

That said, Mo has to face the Red Sox next week. For all we know, he has another implosion left in him, so his stock can still tumble, and he'll be even cheaper.

So, there you go. If you own him, don't freak, and don't trade him for cheap right now.

If you don't own him, go after Mo's owner for a cheap trade and see if they're freaking.

We try to help both sides here at Waaay Back!

"Told You So..." Moment of the Week

Our "Told You So..." Moment of the Week goes to Mariano Rivera, and to a lesser extent, Keith Foulke. As we mentioned in our round-up analysis of closers a couple weeks ago, we said that the Red Sox have Rivera's number with the Yankees/Red Sox facing off 19 times during the regular season, and seemingly another 7 times the past couple postseasons. This same problem afflicted Pedro Martinez when he was with the Red Sox facing the Yankee all the time. That's how the Yanks became his "Daddy" so famously. Familiarity breeds contempt (hence the constant fighting between the two teams), but it also breeds Daddies.

Rivera's Daddy has been the Red Sox for a couple years now, and they proved it again today with another blown save by Rivera against the Red Sox, a homerun by Jason Varitek in the 9th inning. Yes, the Yankees eventually won the game, but that doesn't dismiss the fact Rivera blew another save against his haunting foes. He blew his most saves last year against the Red Sox, and blew two more in the playoffs. They own him. As a result, there's always going to be a question as to whether this is going to affect his stats long-term. We said we feared that Rivera was past his prime...this is just the foundation, folks.

Keith Foulke doesn't get a pass either. Maybe one year has already bred the familiarity bug with the Yankees for him, as Derek Jeter smacked a Foulke pitch for a homerun.

The point here is this: even though they're both great closers, when you have two of the best lineups going against each other 19 times (possibly 26) a year, the closers and starting pitchers are always going to be figured out to a pattern in their styles...and eventually find they have a new Daddy.

Fantasy Rant...

What in God's name is the matter with Charlie Manuel? Does he want the fans of Philadelphia to get around to slashing his tires and keying his car sooner rather than later? Does he think Phillies fans and Philadelphians in general are just quiet, laid-back fans? Did Chase Utley offend Manuel's wife one day?

If you haven't already heard, Manuel decided on the last possible day that he was going to split time at second base between Utley and Placido Polanco. Because, you know the .329 average, the 5 homers, the 9 RBI, and a stolen base during spring training showed he was just struggling to limp through training. (That would be sarcasm, friends.) Polanco was no pushover in training, but Utley bettered him across the board nearly, has all the upside in the world, and even the management --- including the GM of the Phillies --- supports Utley as the unanimous choice for 2B. But, no, no, no, Charlie Manuel has fallen under the sexual sway of the seductive name of Placido Polanco.

Odds are Polanco will struggle at some point in the season, or will have a nagging injury sometime or another (most veterans do during the season eventually), or the management of the Phillies will get onto Manuel with enough pressure to give Utley a few more at-bats. It's still our belief that Manuel can't be that dumb not to see Utley's HUGE upside, and give him at least 400+ ABs this year. Don't be so foolish or rash to drop Utley immediately knowing Manuel plans to play him half-time. It shouldn't last too - too long. Plans at the beginning of the season rarely last through May.

Spotlight Newbie of the Week:

Update from last week:

1. Nice to see Clint Barmes live up to our praise last week. He went 4-6 with a HR, 3 RBI, and 2 runs in yesterday's opening day game for the Rockies. THAT'S a sleeper for you, courtesy of your friends here at Waaay Back! Unlike that bull-bleep ESPN tries to pimp as "sleepers" for you.

2. As for Gavin Floyd and the pseudo-sleeper Noah Lowry, both haven't had their turn in their rotations yet, so we can't eat humble pie yet.

As for this weeks Newbies. Again, we consider a "newbie" to be anyone that's going way under the radar in too many leagues, a guy you need to keep an eye on, or a young bastard nobody knows of waiting to become a rich, young bastard who puts up great numbers for you and their major league team. First up is a guy in the Noah Lowry mold (a guy who you should know of, but a guy not being used in many leagues at all), and that is Aaron Miles, second baseman for the Colorado Rockies --- the other middle infielder that goes with Clint Barmes. Miles was 5-6 yesterday, with three doubles, three runs, and one RBI. He's not going to jack 20 HRs anytime soon, but he's a guy who can easily put up a .300 average, 10 HRs, 75+RBI, 80+runs, 25-35+doubles. He's a small guy, measuring in at only 5'7", but last time I checked, Rafael Furcal wasn't Dikembe Motumbo either, and he's doing alright for most fantasy teams, right? He's a Rockie, he's got the full-time job at 2B, and he's just entering his prime. Should you pick him up? Only if you have some room on your bench or if you have a questionable second baseman already. Otherwise, keep an eye on him. Some players might already have grabbed him after yesterday, which is understandable.

Justin Duchscherer is another guy being paid no attention in too many fantasy leagues. Maybe it's because nobody can spell his last name. (Yeah, there are way too many consonants working in the middle of his last name there.) Sure, he's just a middle reliever, but those middle relievers can quietly help your ERA and WHIP. It also should be of note that the A's closer situation still isn't the most rock solid situation going in the baseball world. Octavio Dotel has the job, no doubt, but Billy Beane and Ken Macha aren't the type to let Dotel struggle through half the season before they pull the plug on him. Keep an eye on Duchscherer.

Need a deep starting pitcher? We mean deeeep. As in "Honey, we need to talk" deep. He has talent though, and that's David Bush of the Blue Jays. (No word on whether he's related to George W.) He posted a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 16 starts with the Jays in 2004. He allowed under one hit per inning (which isn't bad for a rookie), and still almost had 6Ks per 9 innings. He was drafted in only 2002 out of Wake Forest in the second round, but made quick work through the minor league system. He's another pitcher you should look at if he gets off to a quick start this season. We don't expect Oliver Perez type numbers from 2004, but just as Perez showed last year, you need to pay attention to young pitchers coming up through the system that you may have never heard of before. Might he end up being a bigger bust this year than a John Travolta movie? Maybe. But he may end up being a solid #3 or #4 option for your fantasy team.

Lastly, we feel the need to throw some love the the Kansas City Royals, because Lord knows we're hardly ever going to get around to do it that often this year. If you're struggling to find a catcher, or your catcher goes down to injury (and for some of you it will happen sometime this season), look to John Buck of the Royals. His name makes him sound like he's some sort of backwoods outdoorsman, but at only 24 years old and holding down the backstop job full-time, he hit 12 HRs in 2004 in only 71 games. Yes, his average was only a measly .235, but that can only imrpove this year. After opposing pitchers pitch around Mike Sweeney, they're probably going to forget to pitch around Buck, and ta-dah --- you have an improved average. With Joe Mauer and JD Closser of the Rockies (another sleeper with the full-time job to keep an eye on), the new wave of offensive catchers are on the horizon to take the place of the aging Piazzas, Pudges, and Posadas of the world.