Waaay Back! Fantasy Sports Analysis

Newbies of the Week...

2005-04-12T11:34:00.000-04:00

This week we're including some old Newbies from days gone by who might finally be reasserting themselves as Born-Again Newbies. And for that, we start with...

Mogran Ensberg. Starting the season with a .381 average/1HR/2RBI/3runs, he seems to have grabbed the starting third base job from Mike Lamb for the Astros. Going into 2004, Ensberg was a hot sleeper in many leagues, as everyone was swooning over 25HRs in just 385 ABs in 2003. For all that adoration, he ended up tanking. It was if he was the poor man's Pat Burrell last year. Burrell was a hot commodity going into 2004, and ended up letting many managers down, and to a lesser extent Ensberg followed suit. So who's to say Ensberg doesn't have it in him to bounce back to levels he approached in 2003? In his career, Ensberg only has around 950 ABs; Pat Burrell has over 2500 ABs --- but Burrell is only one year younger than Ensberg. So why does everyone assume Burrell has a bounce-back left in him, but not Ensberg? Listen, Burrell has a much higher ceiling in his talent level. He has the ability - the ability - to put up MVP type numbers. But Ensberg has the talent to post very solid numbers --- close to a .300/20+HRs/90+RBI in a full-time gig, assuming he doesn't starting over-thinking his at-bats as he did the first half of last season.

Newbie #2 this week we mentioned in our "Top Fives" column under the "Hey There" section. Chad Tracy's flying under the radar in many leagues, but he's already proven he has the ability to maintain a quality average throughout a season, as he did in 2004. As we said earlier, he's possibly this year's Lyle Overbay - a guy who needs to turn a few of his doubles into homers. He's only 24 years old (25 in May), and at 6'2" and 200lbs, he's not some shrinking violet slap hitter. He has the phyical shape to hammer out 20+ HRs, and very well could do that this year. By qualifying at both first base and third base, it allows you to use him in an emergency at two positions on your roster. If you have a shallow bench or a mediocre first baseman/third baseman, then taking a flyer on Tracy can't hurt.

Brad Halsey seems to finally be getting his chance to shine a bit with the D-Backs as well with Chad Tracy, though on the mound. Once a prized prospect with the Yankees when they actually had a farm system with talent, they of course traded him. In 10.0IP this season, he has 9 Ks (great ratio so far) and a 1.80 ERA with one victory. There's a reason he was so highly valued as a prospect and why he commanded such a high price --- and playing in the relative anonymity of Arizona (as opposed to New York) should allow him to adjust to the majors at his own pace. He's a pitcher who has solid strikeout ability and is still only just 24 years old, so if you're desperate for some pitching, he's an option to keep an eye on.

Another young pitcher looking to turn the corner on his career is Erik Bedard of the Orioles. Going into the 2004 season he was looked at as a deep sleeper, and struggled with his command --- which we swear is a rite of passage for young pitchers, that they all have to struggle with their command. But it says something that the Orioles didn't trade him in the off-season (while they did other young pitchers of their's). He has a strong inning-to-K ratio, and was dominant in his first start of the season for the O's. Only 26 years old, he might be at that age where he turns that corner and puts up very respectable numbers this year. Like many young picthers, he'll still have his bad days, but he's someone you need to pay attention to for the time being.

Top 51 Players in Fantasy Baseball Right Now...

2005-04-11T22:52:00.000-04:00

This is based upon right now --- with some appreciation toward past performance. So, alas, Pat Burrell hasn't yet cracked the top 50, even though he's one of the hottest players right now. But There's always time, Mr. Burrell, to crack the top 50...

1. Ichiro Suzuki - OF: Vaulting from #11 to #1 since our last ranking. That's what you get when you're hitting .478, stole 3 bases, have 7 runs, and the rest of the "elite" players are stinking up the joint to start the season.
2. Vlad Guerrero - OF: Just starting to turn it on...
3. Carlos Beltran - OF: So much for playing in Shea Stadium, huh?
4. Alex Rodriguez - 3B: Two stolen bases this early is a nice sign. The horrible RBI total isn't.
5. Albert Pujols - 1B: Took him long enough to finally hit his first HR of the season. Shouldn't be his last, either.
6. Miguel Tejada - SS: Come on, Miggy. Anytime you want to hit a HR, you just go ahead now, okay? Otherwise, we like your stats so far.
7. Bobby Abreu - OF: 8 runs, some nice RBI totals, at least he's been consistent, which can't be said of most players to start the season.
8. Jason Schmidt - SP: 13.0IP/16Ks/2wins...and fantastic ERA/WHIP numbers as well. #1 pitcher right now.
9. Alfonso Soriano - 2B
10. David Ortiz - 1B
11. Carl Crawford - OF: Is on pace for close to 100 steals for 2005. We doubt he'll crack 100, but that speed is why he'll linger this high on the rankings.
12. Pedro Martinez - SP
13. Derek Jeter - SS: Possibly the only "big name" SS that's hitting right now.
14. Brad Lidge - RP: Huge move in the rankings, as he's the best closer in baseball right now.
15. Aramis Ramirez - 3B
16. Manny Ramirez - OF: One of a multitude of players off to a slow start this season.
17. Todd Helton - 1B
18. Jim Thome - 1B: Could either Helton or Thome possible go homer-less all season? Yeah, we know it won't happen, but geez, come on people...
19. Johan Santana - SP: Not the greatest ERA, but he's always a slow starter.
20. Josh Beckett - SP: Better numbers than Santana right now...but Santana has history on his side, so he gets the nod ahead.
21. Carlos Zambrano - SP
22. Gary Sheffield - OF
23. Aubrey Huff - 1B/3B/OF: Nice all-around numbers so far on the season. Gotta love that eligibility at three positions.
24. Jeff Kent - 2B: Would be top 10 if he was higher last ranking...but he's rocketing up this list. Great start to the season.
25. Roger Clemens - SP: What else is new?
26. Randy Johnson - SP: Is that rust we see, or just a slow start? Time will tell.
27. Scott Rolen - 3B
28. Hideki Matsui - OF
29. Jake Peavy - SP: So much for 2004 being a fluke as some "experts" (not us) warned.
30. Adrian Beltre - 3B: Good to see some pop finally come out of his bat to match his average.
31. Joe Nathan - RP: 2nd best closer in baseball right now. Moving up the list solidly.
32. Miguel Cabrera - OF
33. Ben Sheets - SP
34. Michael Young - SS
35. Carlos Delgado - 1B: Spring Training is past him...and let's hope all his hitting troubles as well.
36. Carlos Guillen - SS: So far showing that 2004 wasn't a fluke. So far...
37. Francisco Rodriguez - RP: 3rd best closer in baseball right now, and closing fast...
38. Tim Hudson - SP: Low K totals, but solid otherwise.
39. Mark Teixeira - 1B
40. Nomar Garciaparra - SS
41. Paul Konerko - 1B
42. Jim Edmonds - OF
43. Carlos Lee - OF: He's still undervalued...except by his genius owners.
44. Jose Reyes - 2B/SS: Very solid average, still hasn't utilized his speed yet, but he will.
45. Eric Chavez - 3B: Hank Blalock is still nipping at his heels to pass him...
46. Troy Glaus - 3B: Would've been much higher if his past history wasn't so horrible at times. But he can skyrocket if he keeps this up.
47. Richie Sexson - 1B: It's a battle this year between Sexson and Glaus as to who has the bigger bounce-back year. Right now, Glaus leads.
48. Billy Wagner - RP
49. Octavio Dotel - RP
50. Jason Varitek - C: Best hitting catcher to start the season.
And Mr. 51 this week is.....
51. Pat Burrell - OF: At the top we said he didn't crack the top 50. We didn't say he didn't make the list. Can't deny that he's been the best player so far this season so far. If he reverts back to his 2002 form, then his owners are going to be ecstatic.

EXCLUDED THIS WEEK: (((the horror!!!)))
Melvin Mora (we bare knew ya)
Jimmy Rollins
Rafael Furcal
Mariano Rivera
Keith Foulke
Oliver Perez
Marcus Giles
Victor Martinez
Adam Dunn
Juan Pierre (you need to steal a base to make the list...)

Past Newbie Updates...

2005-04-10T10:15:00.000-04:00

To update where some of our past Newbies are after we said you should keep an eye on them --- we're showing you we're not running away from pointing these people out to you. We're not shying away if they suck worse than a Jennifer Lopez movie. We'll back our errors.

That said, after week one, we look fairly sharp here, don't we? Here's a look at our Newbie starters so far...

Gavin Floyd had his first start of the season on Saturday -- pitched 7.0 innings, allowed only 3 hits and 1 run, while striking out 2 and getting the win. Those translate into a 1.29 ERA and 0.43 WHIP on the young season. Hey, we're not saying Floyd going to be that lights out every week. He's young, and that means he'll have games where he's lit up more than Whitney Houston. But he'll have more than his fair share of games like he putched on Saturday. The biggest problem looming is Vincente Padilla coming off the DL soon. With Charlie Manuel seemingly preferring veterans over young superstars in-the-waiting (Paging Chase Utley...paging Mr. Utley...), you have to wonder whether Manuel will ignore anything Floyd does that's lights-out and still put Padilla back into the rotation --- sending Floyd back to the bullpen. Reminds us of Johan Santana's first few years with the Twins, where he was dominant in his occassional start, but the Twins kept putting him back in the bullpen to allow some veteran pitcher to start instead. That said, ride Floyd as long as he's in the rotation, and hold him on your bench IF Manuel puts Padilla back in the rotation. Don't drop Floyd if you don't have to.

For another one of our Newbie sleepers, Noah Lowry pitched 6.0 innings on Friday against the Rockies, allowing 2 earned runs and 4 hits, striking out 2. For the young season he has en ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.17. He didn't get the win as the Giants bullpen allowed an 8 run 7th inning once Lowry left the game --- blowing his sure-shot at victory. But considering his solid amount of starts last season, Lowry is taking off right where you'd like to see him. We still strongly suggest you pick him up or trade for him on the cheap if you could use a starter, since he should have his slot in the rotation all season, and he's a young pitcher on the rise.

David Bush had some performance anxiety for game #1 you could say, but it still wasn't terrible. Considering that he was facing the Red Sox offense, he pitched 5.0 innings and allowed 3 earned runs, allowing only4 hits and walking 2. While Gavin Floyd shut down a powerful offense in the Cardinals for his season debut, Bush couldn't do quite the same against the Red Sox. But we did say he was a deeeeep sleeper, and for that he wasn't bad at all, we'd say. We still suggest you keep an eye on him. If he can throw his curve ball a bit more in the right moments of a count, and not rely on his fastball --- which the Red Sox were jumping all over --- he could get better results. And not all offenses he'll face this year are the Red Sox lineup.

Look for the next Newbies of the Week update later today or tomorrow. Also, the next listing of top 51 players in fantasy baseball list should be posted sometime in that same time period.

The Top Fives of the Week...

2005-04-09T15:32:00.000-04:00

Here's our first weekly round-up of the "Top Fives" --- Top Five Best Hitters for the Week, Top Five Starting Pitchers for the Week, Top Five Relievers for the Week, Top Five Busts for the Week, and Top Five "Hello There" Players of the Week. Let's get to it shall, we?

Top Five Best Hitters for the Week: April 3rd - April 8th, 2005.

1. Joe Randa - 3B: .429/3HRs/8RBI/5 runs. Gotta love those career middle-of-the-road type players that have a scorching hot week to start off the season, giving fantasy players hope that this is that guy's career year, a la Rich Aurilia a few years back. He did have over 100 RBI back in 2000 for the Royals, but his career best in HRs is 16, back in 1999 and 2003. If you're desperate for a 3B, he's a fine choice considering the park and lineup he plays in, and he's good for a solid average generally. But don't go after Randa if you're expecting Arod type numbers here.

2. Hideki Matsui - OF: .438/3HRs/7RBI/5 runs. Now here's a guy who should be hot all season, a guy who was a steal in the 7th-8th rounds and beyond in your typical draft. He's improved every season he'd played in America, and has continued his scorching pace to lead off this season. We strongly suggest trying to trade for Matsui while his value is still relatively cheap --- if you don't have him. If you do have him, then you already know you're a genius.

3. Luis Gonzalez - OF: .538/2HRs/5RBI/ 6runs. We have to be honest here, we didn't expect Gonzo to be coming back gangbusters this season. He's getting old, he's in a thinner lineup, he's coming off injury --- but we're willing to be wrong for this week, and maybe longer. It's nice to see a good guy start off strong. Still, we're not getting ourselves all lathered up just yet.

4. Ichiro Suzuki - OF: .533/1RBI/4 runs/3 steals. The ".400 Watch" for the 2005 season began the second the 2004 season ended, and Ichiro didn't hurt the buzz by having his blistering spring training. We don't think Ted Williams has to worry about Ichiro joining him in the .400 club, but we expect another batting title from Mr. Suzuki this season --- and a return to 40 to 50 steals. A great first week to the season for him.

5. Jose Valentin - 3B: .500/2HRs/8RBI/3 runs/1 steal. Nice way to win over your new team by smacking the ball around like Ty Cobb for week one of the season. He's still available in many leagues, and always good for his HRs and even his share of RBI, but we're still not buying his average staying over .300 through April. A career .244 hitter coming off a 2004 season where he batted .216 will do that to you and your confidence in him.

Top Five Starting Pitchers for the Week:

1. Jake Peavy: 6.2IP/10Ks/0.00ERA/0.90WHIP: You hate to see a guy pitch such a gem and not get the win from his team, but a fantastic start to the season for 2004's ERA title winner. Peavy's stock for some reason was lower than expected in many leagues coming into this season, but he's a great #1 pitcher to have for your staff. And we'll always love him pitching at Petrco Park. If you have him, feel proud.

2. Josh Beckett: 6.0IP/6Ks/0.00ERA/0.83WHIP/1 win: A few less Ks than Peavy, but instead got the win. Take it or leave it. Many are still frightened off by Beckett's past blister problems, but he's still only 24 years old. You can't ignore that type of promise, and Beckett's showing you why.

3. Roger Clemens: 7.0IP/9Ks/1.29ERA/0.71WHIP/1 win: The old man is showing the kids he's still got gas left in the tank. If the Astros are going to go anywhere this year, they better hope Clemens keeps it up. With some experts saying Clemens should have packed it up after last season, no doubt Clemens will use that as motivation to prove them wrong. That said, if Clemens keeps this up for April and thye beginning of May, we wouldn't be against you trading him for someone younger while his stock is still high.

4. Aaron Harang: 6.1IP/5Ks/0.00ERA/0.63WHIP/1 win: Harang's still relatively young for a pitcher, and if he's ever going to break out and be a star, it's going to be this season or never most likely. Good way to start off the season, and help the Reds where they're at their weakest - pitching. Don't expect an ERA title this season, but he has the goods to be a mid to high 3.00ERA pitcher over the season if he puts it all together.

5. Jeremy Bonderman: 7.0IP/7Ks/1.29ERA/1.14WHIP/1 win: The hottest pitching sleeper coming into this season lived up to the initial hype, having a pretty dominating game to start off his season. As Dimitri Young said, the Tigers aren't the Kittens anymore (least to start off the season), and Bonderman's one of the biggest reasons why. If you drafted him, you should feel damn good right now --- and DON'T trade him because you worry his value will slip. It should only increase as the season progresses.

Top Five Relievers for the Week: Hell, your guess would be as good as ours after such a horrible week of pitching for closers across baseball. They've stunk worse than fish left out in the hot summer sun. But we've got 5 winners nonetheless.

1. Dan Kolb: 3.0IP/3 saves/ 3.00ERA/0.67WHIP/2Ks: Yeah, yeah, he allowed a run this week. But he's the only closer in baseball to convert all three save chances he faced, and we give him a round of applause for that, since apparently everyone else was afraid to try it sometime. Some are down on Kolb because he doesn't have blazing stuff...but as we always say, he's got Leo Mazzone, Pitching Coach God on his side. So are you really going to doubt him?

2. Brad Lidge: 2.1IP/2 saves/0.00ERA/0.86WHIP/3Ks: Only thing keeping Lidge from getting the #1 spot this week was simple save chances given to him. Lidge showed why he's a dominant closer this week, and didn't let any fantasy players down. The Astros might not be as dominant this year, but Lidge might very well be the best closer in the NL this year when all is said and done.

3. Miguel Batista: 2.1IP/2 saves/o.00ERA/0.43WHIP/1K: While veteran closers apparently thought they were still pitching in spring training, the converted starting pitcher who everyone wants to doubt didn't allow an earned run. The Jays aren't a pushover either, so he very well might crack the high 30s for saves this year. Do we expect a 0.00 ERA by October? Uhhh, no. But he's been a great steal for all you who drafted him in the middle-to-late rounds of your drafts.

4. Mike Gonzalez: 3.1IP/5Ks/0.00ERA/0.60WHIP: If he pitched for the Yankees, everyone on ESPN would be clammoring that he's the most dominant middle-reliver in baseball. But because he plays for the Pirates, have of the fantasy baseball world still says, "Who that?" If Jose Mesa stinks up the closers role - which is always a possibility - than you're looking at your next closer here, and you're looking at a great one at that.

5. Danys Baez: 3.1IP/2Ks/0.00ERA/1.20WHIP/2 wins/1 save: You have to be euphoric when your closer chalks up two wins in a week --- and he didn't even blow the game! Now that's being lucky. Baez is another one of those closers that was one of the last off the draft board, yet still should put up solid numbers. A great steal for those who took him.

Top Five Busts for the Week:

Hitters:
1. Albert Pujols - 1B: .231/0 HRs/1RBI/1 run: We hate doing this to Pujols, and we know it's just a flat start and he'll round into form any day now, but when you're taken first in many drafts (or second), you don't expect almost nothing in return for your pick. Don't worry if you have him on your squad. He's healthy, and he'll Turn it around soon enough.

2. Alex Rodriguez - 3B: .176/1HRS/2RBI/3 runs/1 caught stealing: Same deal as with Pujols -- you expect some quick returns on your high investment in the guy, but again, don't worry. Worse average than Pujols, but hey, he did hit a HR, right?

3. Manny Ramirez - OF: .125/0 HRs/2RBI/2 runs: What is it with the huge power hitters on good teams snoozing to begin the season? While David Ortiz has been red-hot behind him in the lineup, Manny's still trying to catch his rythm. Still one of the best hitters in baseball and should be fine soon.

4. Bobby Abreu - OF: .176/o HRS/o RBI/4 runs/ 0 steals: We can understand no HRs after one week, because those can come in bunches. But no RBI at all? You're in a pretty good lineup there, Abreu -- anytime you want to start driving in runs, you feel free to do so, alright? Still, we wouldn't trade him and his 30/30 ability anytime soon.

5. Scott Rolen - 3B: .154/o HRs/1RBI/3 runs: The best hitting third baseman is also still hitting the snooze button to start the season. While he shouldn't have been drafted as high as the top 4 on our list here, you still expect more out of him...and he will produce soon. Too good of a hitter not to.

Pitchers:
1. Mariano Rivera - RP: 1.2IP/3Ks/10.80ERA/4.80WHIP/1 win/0 saves: He got the win because he blew his first blown save against the Red Sox --- which the Yankees came back and won and initially made people forget Mo's troubles. Blown save number two made that forgtefulness hard to do. Has nowhere to go but up from here.

2. Trevor Hoffman - RP: 1.2IP/0 Ks/21.60ERA/3.60WHIP/0 wins/0 saves: April's usually his worst month, but sweet mother this is a bad start. He's getting older, but he still has some gas left in the tank, but starting off in Colorado can't help matters either. He's out of the thin air, so maybe he can start turning it around.

3. Roy Oswalt - SP: 6.0IP/2Ks/9.00ERA/1.33WHIP/0 wins: You'd have to have been at least hoping for some Ks if he's going to stink up the joint, and he didn't even accomplish that very well either, striking out only 2 in week one. Still, one of the best when on his game, but another lackluster pitcher starting off the season.

4. Keith Foulke - RP: 3.0IP/1K/9.00ERA/2.00WHIP/1 save: Hey, at least he got a save, right? More than can be said of either Mo or Hoffman. But the bug afflicting closers across baseball struck Foulke as well, and he couldn't overcome it. Unlike Hoffman and Rivera, though, Foulke is a bit younger and without injuries in his past so you have less to worry about in the overall package.

5. John Smoltz - SP: 1.2IP/1K/32.40ERA/4.80WHIP/0 wins: He should be #1 this week, but considering it was his first time in a long time back as a starter, we'll give him a break....for week one. But when you only see 1.2IP for the week, you do a double-take, wondering if he's still a reliever. He can't do much worse in his next starts.

Top Five "Hello There" Players: These are players that are generally young players looking to make a breakthrough this season, or just starting out.

1. Jorge Cantu - 2B & 3B: .467/3HRs/6RBI/3 runs: If you drafted him, you were really did your homework. And if you still haven't picked him up, well, you better have a deep bench to not take him. He was a star in the D-Rays farm system, and now getting his chance to play full-time, he's showing what he's got. Good to see.

2. Clint Barmes - 2B & SS: .400/2HRs/4RBI/4 runs: Yeah, yeah, we were all over him at the start of the season like a fat woman at a dessert buffet, but even we're a bit surprised at how quickly he got out of the gate. He's starting to catch some buzz (as most Rockies prospects do), but if he's still available abd you're in need of some middle infield help, he might be worth a look. Don't say we didn't tell you.

3. Aaron Miles - 2B: .583/0HR/2RBI/4 runs: Not jacking the ball out of the ballpark, but slapping it just about everwhere else in the park to begin the year. If you're looking for a cheap 2B that's a free agent most likely, Miles will help your average, hitting around .300 most likely. Not a HR threat, but runs, average, and a solid amount of RBI doesn't hurt.

4. Nick Swisher - OF: .222/2HRs/3RBI/3 runs: Not the greatest average to begin the season, but the early odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors at the end of the season. This year's Jason Bay, perhaps?

5. Chad Tracy - 1B & 3B: .467/1HR/2RBI/2 runs: Shown he can maintain an average throughout the season last year in his first full season, and if he could turn a few more doubles into homers, he might crack 20 this year and drive in 80+. He's still not in the greatest lineup, but he's still only 24 years old right now. He's available in most leagues, but he bears watching. This year's Lyle Overbay maybe.

Things That Make You Go "Hmmm..."

2005-04-07T12:12:00.000-04:00

So Mariano Rivera is imploding quicker these days than an old Las Vegas casino. For all of you that invested an early draft pick on Mo, congratulations on that desperate feeling you're having right now.

So, let's look at the numbers. Since July on 2004, Mo's averaged an ERA of well over 6.00 against the Red Sox, including a half dozen blown saves. By now you know he's had four consecutive blown saves against the Red Sox (including two in the ALCS), and the Yankee fans have finally turned on him.

Hmmm.

First: Mo better stop pretending that it was Red Sox fans booing him yesterday, as he said to the media. Red Sox fans were clapping and cheering him in the stands from what we saw when we watched the game on TV. Yankee fans have right to be pissed off at him right now, as the Yanks biggest rival and biggest competitor seems to own him.

Second: Mo better stop pretending that there's nothing to the Red Sox owning him, that it's just a coincidence. Uh, yeah, and the Yankees didn't own Pedro Martinez. Suuure.

As for fantasy fans, here's what's most disturbing. While Rivera has 12 blown saves against the Red Sox alone out of his last 50 blown saves, what's not being reported as often is that he also has 8 blown saves in that same time against the Los Angeles (Anaheim) Angels. This is disturbing for fantasy players on levels not seen since Mark Mulder sucked the entire second half of last season. Why? Because the Yankees face the Angels 1/3 the amount of time the face the Red Sox --- and the Red Sox and Angels have one thing in common: they're both post-season caliber teams.

Let's break down the numbers: In his career, Mo has a career 1.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 41 career games against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 2.54ERA/1.07WHIP in 41 games against Toronto, 2.44ERA/1.25WHIP in 41 games against Texas, yet against teams that have been playoff caliber for year after year lately, like Anaheim, he's a different pitcher. In 6 games against Atlanta, he has a 5.40ERA/1.05WHIP, against Anaheim in 30 career games he has 4.50ERA/1.39WHIP, and against the Red Sox he holds a 3.05ERA/1.29WHIP. Yet, over the last three seasons against the Red Sox, his ERA balloons to 3.94, and his WHIP 1.41. Not quite hall of fame numbers, are they?

Listen, for years Mo was as good as it got for a closer. But his career is on the downslope, not the peak. He still very well might have a good year, but don't expect a great year. We're not rushing to a rash decision here after two bad games. We'll even guarantee that he'll have a stretch of dominance during this season. But the end result for his numbers will still be less than what was deserved for where you may have drafted him. The numbers don't lie. Against playoff caliber teams or in games where the situation is high pressure, he's a different pitcher than the guy who faces against creampuff teams like the D-Rays.

Here's our advice for those who drafted Mo. Hold him for now. Don't freak and try to trade him for the cheap right now. He'll have a stretch against puff teams soon enough where he'll beat up on them. When he does, and when "experts" start believing he's swell again, then make your move to trade him for a Brad Lidge or other dominant closer still in their prime. Buy low/sell high. Mo's value obviously is down right now. No need to sell right now. And he's still good enough to play full time.

As for those who don't have Mo, but need a closer, now's the time to make a trade offer. Odds are the owner of Mo won't trade him for cheaper than they'd have expected a few weeks ago, but there's always an antsy owner out there who swears this is the Apocalypse, and need to get rid of him while he still has some value. If you're desperate for a closer, and Mo's owner in your league has extra closers - so Mo would be expendable for them - try trading for him a little cheaper than you'd expect typically. Most Mo owners won't go for it, but now's as good a time as you can get to try to swindle Mo's owner for a cheaper player. Yahoo, for example, has Mo ranked 47th overall. In this case, if you're trying to cheap Mo's owner, look to trade a player ranked in the 60s to late 70's for him.

That said, Mo has to face the Red Sox next week. For all we know, he has another implosion left in him, so his stock can still tumble, and he'll be even cheaper.

So, there you go. If you own him, don't freak, and don't trade him for cheap right now.

If you don't own him, go after Mo's owner for a cheap trade and see if they're freaking.

We try to help both sides here at Waaay Back!

"Told You So..." Moment of the Week

2005-04-05T23:19:00.000-04:00

Our "Told You So..." Moment of the Week goes to Mariano Rivera, and to a lesser extent, Keith Foulke. As we mentioned in our round-up analysis of closers a couple weeks ago, we said that the Red Sox have Rivera's number with the Yankees/Red Sox facing off 19 times during the regular season, and seemingly another 7 times the past couple postseasons. This same problem afflicted Pedro Martinez when he was with the Red Sox facing the Yankee all the time. That's how the Yanks became his "Daddy" so famously. Familiarity breeds contempt (hence the constant fighting between the two teams), but it also breeds Daddies.

Rivera's Daddy has been the Red Sox for a couple years now, and they proved it again today with another blown save by Rivera against the Red Sox, a homerun by Jason Varitek in the 9th inning. Yes, the Yankees eventually won the game, but that doesn't dismiss the fact Rivera blew another save against his haunting foes. He blew his most saves last year against the Red Sox, and blew two more in the playoffs. They own him. As a result, there's always going to be a question as to whether this is going to affect his stats long-term. We said we feared that Rivera was past his prime...this is just the foundation, folks.

Keith Foulke doesn't get a pass either. Maybe one year has already bred the familiarity bug with the Yankees for him, as Derek Jeter smacked a Foulke pitch for a homerun.

The point here is this: even though they're both great closers, when you have two of the best lineups going against each other 19 times (possibly 26) a year, the closers and starting pitchers are always going to be figured out to a pattern in their styles...and eventually find they have a new Daddy.

Fantasy Rant...

2005-04-05T12:18:00.000-04:00

What in God's name is the matter with Charlie Manuel? Does he want the fans of Philadelphia to get around to slashing his tires and keying his car sooner rather than later? Does he think Phillies fans and Philadelphians in general are just quiet, laid-back fans? Did Chase Utley offend Manuel's wife one day?

If you haven't already heard, Manuel decided on the last possible day that he was going to split time at second base between Utley and Placido Polanco. Because, you know the .329 average, the 5 homers, the 9 RBI, and a stolen base during spring training showed he was just struggling to limp through training. (That would be sarcasm, friends.) Polanco was no pushover in training, but Utley bettered him across the board nearly, has all the upside in the world, and even the management --- including the GM of the Phillies --- supports Utley as the unanimous choice for 2B. But, no, no, no, Charlie Manuel has fallen under the sexual sway of the seductive name of Placido Polanco.

Odds are Polanco will struggle at some point in the season, or will have a nagging injury sometime or another (most veterans do during the season eventually), or the management of the Phillies will get onto Manuel with enough pressure to give Utley a few more at-bats. It's still our belief that Manuel can't be that dumb not to see Utley's HUGE upside, and give him at least 400+ ABs this year. Don't be so foolish or rash to drop Utley immediately knowing Manuel plans to play him half-time. It shouldn't last too - too long. Plans at the beginning of the season rarely last through May.

Spotlight Newbie of the Week:

2005-04-05T11:34:00.000-04:00

Update from last week:

1. Nice to see Clint Barmes live up to our praise last week. He went 4-6 with a HR, 3 RBI, and 2 runs in yesterday's opening day game for the Rockies. THAT'S a sleeper for you, courtesy of your friends here at Waaay Back! Unlike that bull-bleep ESPN tries to pimp as "sleepers" for you.

2. As for Gavin Floyd and the pseudo-sleeper Noah Lowry, both haven't had their turn in their rotations yet, so we can't eat humble pie yet.

As for this weeks Newbies. Again, we consider a "newbie" to be anyone that's going way under the radar in too many leagues, a guy you need to keep an eye on, or a young bastard nobody knows of waiting to become a rich, young bastard who puts up great numbers for you and their major league team. First up is a guy in the Noah Lowry mold (a guy who you should know of, but a guy not being used in many leagues at all), and that is Aaron Miles, second baseman for the Colorado Rockies --- the other middle infielder that goes with Clint Barmes. Miles was 5-6 yesterday, with three doubles, three runs, and one RBI. He's not going to jack 20 HRs anytime soon, but he's a guy who can easily put up a .300 average, 10 HRs, 75+RBI, 80+runs, 25-35+doubles. He's a small guy, measuring in at only 5'7", but last time I checked, Rafael Furcal wasn't Dikembe Motumbo either, and he's doing alright for most fantasy teams, right? He's a Rockie, he's got the full-time job at 2B, and he's just entering his prime. Should you pick him up? Only if you have some room on your bench or if you have a questionable second baseman already. Otherwise, keep an eye on him. Some players might already have grabbed him after yesterday, which is understandable.

Justin Duchscherer is another guy being paid no attention in too many fantasy leagues. Maybe it's because nobody can spell his last name. (Yeah, there are way too many consonants working in the middle of his last name there.) Sure, he's just a middle reliever, but those middle relievers can quietly help your ERA and WHIP. It also should be of note that the A's closer situation still isn't the most rock solid situation going in the baseball world. Octavio Dotel has the job, no doubt, but Billy Beane and Ken Macha aren't the type to let Dotel struggle through half the season before they pull the plug on him. Keep an eye on Duchscherer.

Need a deep starting pitcher? We mean deeeep. As in "Honey, we need to talk" deep. He has talent though, and that's David Bush of the Blue Jays. (No word on whether he's related to George W.) He posted a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 16 starts with the Jays in 2004. He allowed under one hit per inning (which isn't bad for a rookie), and still almost had 6Ks per 9 innings. He was drafted in only 2002 out of Wake Forest in the second round, but made quick work through the minor league system. He's another pitcher you should look at if he gets off to a quick start this season. We don't expect Oliver Perez type numbers from 2004, but just as Perez showed last year, you need to pay attention to young pitchers coming up through the system that you may have never heard of before. Might he end up being a bigger bust this year than a John Travolta movie? Maybe. But he may end up being a solid #3 or #4 option for your fantasy team.

Lastly, we feel the need to throw some love the the Kansas City Royals, because Lord knows we're hardly ever going to get around to do it that often this year. If you're struggling to find a catcher, or your catcher goes down to injury (and for some of you it will happen sometime this season), look to John Buck of the Royals. His name makes him sound like he's some sort of backwoods outdoorsman, but at only 24 years old and holding down the backstop job full-time, he hit 12 HRs in 2004 in only 71 games. Yes, his average was only a measly .235, but that can only imrpove this year. After opposing pitchers pitch around Mike Sweeney, they're probably going to forget to pitch around Buck, and ta-dah --- you have an improved average. With Joe Mauer and JD Closser of the Rockies (another sleeper with the full-time job to keep an eye on), the new wave of offensive catchers are on the horizon to take the place of the aging Piazzas, Pudges, and Posadas of the world.

Top Ten Fantasy Busts in 2005...

2005-03-31T14:23:00.000-05:00

We're looking at players that typically have been drafted in the top 10 rounds, and who we see as underperforming on some steep level from what they did in 2004. Sort of like Britney Spears has been doing the past year from her previous highs.

#10: Ivan Rodriguez: He should still have a solid season, but 2004 he batted .334 --- 28 points higher than his career average of .306. If you think a catcher with 14 seasons on his knees and turning 34 years old this year can do it again, God love ya, because we just don't see it happening. Post all-star break in '04, his batting average dipped over 80 points from the pre all-star levels. Case closed.

#9: Javy Lopez: Again, another case of a veteran catcher who very well could have a solid season in 2005. That said, Lopez is already 34 years old, he already has 13 years on his knees, and his numbers in 2004 took a solid tumble from his 2003 contract year with the Braves. People forget that Lopez in the four years before his career 2003 season averaged shy of 16 homers a year, 63 RBI, and only a .276 average. You feel like risking it all on an aging catcher? Good for you, because we don't.

#8: Carlos Guillen: Ahh, nothing like career years, huh? Here we had Carlos Guillen, going undrafted in 95% of fantasy leagues everywhere at the start of 2004, and then Guillen went on a nice little tear all season. Hmmm. Let's look at the numbers, shall we? In his three previous years before 2004, he averaged a .265/7HRs/54RBI. Which Guillen do you think is the real Guillen, then? 2004's Guillen, or the Guillen that the Seattle Mariners gave up on after years of mediocrity?

#7: Miguel Tejada: Don't get freaked out. We're not saying Miggy's going to be batting .245 this season and drviing in 35 RBI. We're just saying get off the pipe and realize he's NOT driving in 150 again. His previous career high in RBI was 131, and that was already bloated for him. A season of 120 RBI would be solid. And his average should dip back a bit, to the .280 to .300 range, as opposed to 10 to 20 points higher than .300. His career average is .276 --- so his 2004 average of .311 was better than should ever be expected.

#6: Carlos Delgado: We all know he didn't have the greatest season in 2004, but changing teams, changing leagues, and struggling through spring training (while it doesn't mean much) doesn't instill the most confidence in a player trying to bounce back from one of their worst seasons. He's turning 33 years old, so he has time to bounce back, but don't expect the Delgado of .330/45+HRs/120RBI days. Maybe next year, but not this year.

#5: Randy Johnson: Again, as we said with Tejada, don't get freaked out. We're not screaming "CHAN-HO PARK!!!" here. But the swap into the American League from the National League affects just about EVERY starter for the negative on some level. There is no logical way Johnson posts an ERA below 3.00 unless he has a career year. Two of his last three seasons with the Mariners (his last stint in the AL) he posted an ERA above 3.67, including one season with an ERA of 4.33. Are we saying he does that again? No. Are we saying he's not going to be as dominating as 2004? Absolutely.

#4: Roger Clemens: As opposed to Mr. Porn Star Name, with Clemens we expect a steady drop off from his 2004 numbers. The jump to the NL from the AL was a positive one (as it should be going that way), but as the season progressed his ERA climbed 79 points from 2.62 pre all-star to 3.41 post all-star break, as hitters adusted to him and he tired. The Astros shouldn't be quite as strong this year, so a significant drop-off should occur this season. Still, he's a solid pick, just don't expect him to anchor your team.

#3: Adrian Beltre: As we said in our third basemen review (check it out below), we still consider him a stud third baseman, but we have serious doubts. 2004 was a career year in just about every category --- and it just happened to be his contract year. No doubt a coincidence. No doubt. His BA last year was 60 points higher than his career average, and his HRs and RBI totals were through the roof. He's still young, but we don't think he's worth a second round draft pick where he's going in most drafts.

#2: Carl Pavano: Here's a lock if there ever was a lock. Pavano is a nice guy. He's shagged Alyssa Milano. We credit him for that. But his career ERA is 4.21 --- while he posted a 3.00 ERA in 2004. He's not a strikeout pitcher. He's a righty in Yankee Stadium. But forget that. Forget any of that. What's important is that he's played his entire career in baseball hotbeds of Montreal and Florida, and now he's gone to the Yankees. There's a reason young pitchers crash and burn when making that leap. Javier Vazquez was just the most recent example. Jeff Weaver held that title before that. Pavano very well migth be the most recent member of that dubious club.

And the #1 fantasy bust in 2005 is....
#1: Barry Bonds: Yes, you know by now he's going to miss some time this season. But why draft him? Really, if you look at how we crunched the numbers down the the outfielder breakdown we posted below, Bonds is overdue to crash and burn statistically. Now that we know he's going to miss a month --- or the entire season if the glaring spotlight on his cheating in every facet of life heats up (including while playing Monopoly and Scrabble as well, we don't doubt) --- why would you bother taking on that risk? Spend your draft picks on someone who you know will produce. Don't spend it wishing on an over-40 year old player who has steroid issues and is sure to miss many games this year. It just doesn't make sense.

Top 51 Fantasy Players in Baseball Right Now...

2005-03-28T23:01:00.000-05:00

Why 51? Well, why stop at 50? There's always some poor schmo who has to come in at 51, just missing the cut in your typical to 50 countdown. But we here at Waaay Back! believe in schmoes all over the world, especially in regards to fantasy baseball, and we honor Mr. 51. Screw the guy who comes in at 52 on our list --- he wasn't close enough to crack the top 50 to begin with, so he needs to work a bit harder. We cheer the top 51 for this week, the week of March 28th, 2005...

1. Albert Pujols - 1B: He's younger than Arod, and other than SBs, he'll beat Arod in just about every category, including BA by a mile. That's why he qualifies #1 with us.
2. Alex Rodriguez - 3B
3. Vlad Guerrero - OF: Just a beast...just a beast...
4. Carlos Beltran - OF: We're still slightly -- slightly - worried about him playing at Shea and with the Mets.
5. Miguel Tejada - SS
6. Johan Santana - SP: Why is he ahead of Mr. Porn Star Name (Randy Johnson)? Because he had as good a season last year as Mr. Porn Star Name while in a tougher league, he's younger, and he's not going to have to get used to the AL again like Johnson is going to have to.
7. Randy Johnson - SP: Still, we like him.
8. Alfonso Soriano - 2B : If he were an outfielder, he'd probably be down in the 40s, but since 2B is so thin, he's by far as good as it gets there, and you have to value that. Hamstring seems healthy for now, so he stays top 10.
9. Bobby Abreu - OF: We'd love to see him duplicate last season...and he can do it.
10. Manny Ramirez - OF: Just a beast...just a beast...We said that somewhere up ahead, didn't we?
11. Ichiro Suzuki - OF: Oh, no! We included his last name again!!! Shame on us. Anyway, he's having another freak spring training. Don't believe the hype that he'll hit .400, because it's not likely. But another batting title seems likely.
12. Carl Crawford - OF
13. Scott Rolen - 3B
14. David Ortiz - 1B: Why ahead of Helton? Because he's a couple years younger, in a much better lineup, and Fenway is no sluch of a hitter's park to Coor's.
15. Todd Helton - 1B: Still, we like him.
16. Jason Schmidt - SP: Most likely the third best starter available to start the year, but with Bonds gone for a little while at least, Giants will find it harder to score some runs...and therefore wins for their starters.
17. Jim Thome - 1B
18. Gary Sheffield - OF: We'd follow the same suit we gave to Vlad and Manny and call Sheff a beat as well, but age and that shoulder will always cause some doubts for us.
19. Mark Teixeira - 1B: Don't let him slide too far in your draft. A bit undervalued, though not much.
20. Adrian Beltre - 3B: We're worried about a slide back this season. Contract years the previous year and a swap of leagues will always do that.
21. Miguel Cabrera - OF
22. Curt Schilling - SP: Will probably make acouple starts at AAA to get his training in, but the ankle's healthy. Don't be scared off.
23. Ben Sheets - SP
24. Nomar Garciaparra - SS: Making a surge in the rankings with a hot spring. Always a worry over health, but if he can be healthy...oh, we swoon.
25. Jim Edmonds - OF
26. Juan Pierre - OF: Injury questions already rising. He's starting to fall a bit in the standings here.
27. Aramis Ramirez - 3B
28. Derek Jeter - SS: Same ol', same ol' from Mr. Dependable. (We've forgotten about last April.)
29. Carlos Zambrano - SP: Ace of the Cubs in our minds. Why? Oh....because he doesn't spend half his time with that evil mistress, the Disabled List like some Cubs pitchers we know.
30. Roy Oswalt - SP: Remember how last year Oswalt was practically forgotten by many fantasy leaguers because of an injury-filled 2003? Don't you feel like a dope for passing on him in so many rounds in last year's draft?
31. Adam Dunn - 1B/OF: Call us high on glue, but we believe he'll steal a good amount of bases this year and make us forget his .260 or so average. Oh, and the massive amount of HRs won't hurt either.
32. Victor Martinez - C: Why so high? Because only one catcher had more than 100RBI last year, and he was it. He's on the upswing in his career, as opposed to 95% of all the other quality catchers out there.
33. Jake Peavy - SP
34. Pedro Martinez - SP: Back tightness this spring, bad 2004, iffy Mets team...hmmm. Something to keep an eye on.
35. Eric Gagne - RP: Brad Lidge is looming right behind him for best closer title. Iffy spring and offy for opener doesn't help cause.
36. Brad Lidge - RP
37. Marcus Giles - 2B
38. Eric Chavez - 3B: Better eye than Hank Blalock is only reason he'll crack top 51 over Hank for now. We're still high on Hank, though. Undervalued if you ask us.
39. Oliver Perez - SP: Could regress a little this year from phenomenal 2004, but still a freak. Can't beat those Ks either.
40. Roger Clemens - SP: Is age catching up with him? Or is it the curse of the stolen Hummer?
41. Rafael Furcal - SS
42. Aubrey Huff - OF/1B/3B: If he qualifies at three positions in your league, you have to understand what a God-send that is to your team when a player on your squad at one of those positions gets injured, and you can move Huff and his stats right over to vill that void. Hugely undervalued in many circles.
43. Michael Young - SS
44. Jimmy Rollins - SS: Can pass young any given week with a solid season. Especially if he's stealing bases like Winona Ryder "shopping" in a clothing store.
45. Tim Hudson - SP
46. Carlos Delgado - 1B: Wretched spring after mediocre 2004 and he's changing leagues. He's on the verge of falling out of the top 51, which we're sure will just devestate the entire Delgado family.
47. Hideki Matsui - OF: Watch out, people. Godzilla might have the best season of any Yankee hitter in 2005.
48. Carlos Lee - OF: Don't disrespect. Nice spring too.
49. Keith Foulke - RP
50. Joe Nathan - RP: Why ahead of Rivera and no Rivera on this list? Nathan's younger and proven he can post equal if not better numbers.
And Mr. 51 for this week is.....
51. Melvin Mora - 3B: We aren't exactly his biggest fans here, but we'll show him some love this week.

EXCLUDED THIS WEEK: ((((great shame))))
Mark Prior (get healthy first before you get on our list)...
Mariano Rivera
Francisco Rodriguez
Travis Hafner
Johnny Damon (get that beard grown back, man)
Hank Blalock
Barry Bonds (see ya later pal...try a new steroid, and we'll see you in August maybe...with a different kid as a prop)

Why ESPN is a waste for the fantasy baseball user:

2005-03-28T21:13:00.001-05:00

Watching SportsCenter at 6pm tonight, and Dan Patrick comes on to tell us who we need for our fantasy teams. Okay, I said to myself. Maybe they'll point out someone under the radar that we hadn't been thinking about.

Then...ESPN and Dan Patrick tells us it's Steve Phillips --- failed GM of the New York Mets, best known for sexual harrassment charges, not his baseball acumen --- who's going to give us our fantasy info, and then we knew ESPN and SportsCenter were about to waste our time.

Sure enough, what "no-names" did Phillips and Dan Patrick point out for us fantasy players? Among the "sleepers" were Corey Patterson and Rich Harden. Well, geez, thanks ESPN, for being a year too late on those sleepers for us. Telling us Corey Patterson has some skills NOW is like saying George Bush is going to win the 2004 presidential election. It's just a wee bit too late.

But this is what ESPN does, especially on the television side of things with regards to fantasy baseball. They get real-life rejects in the world of baseball (Steve Phillips, for example, but it doesn't stop there) to tell people how to run their fantasy teams --- people who at one time no doubt probably mocked the tens of millions of people who play them.

For example, one of the "sleepers" ESPN had tonight was Jose Reyes of the New York Mets. Now, granted, Reyes has been a bit of a disappointment so far in his career, mainly because of injury. But any fantasy baseball player worth their salt knows Reyes is at least a quality player already, and is by no mans a true sleeper. So much so, in fact, that the good folks at Yahoo have him ranked at 53 overall. We think that's a bit high, but that does show how Reyes is NOT a sleeper. A sleeper isn't ranked anywhere within the top 100, and really shouldn't be sniffing the top 200 probably of any fantasy ranking list.

For example (again), one of our sleepers we noted yesterday, Clint Barmes of the Colorado Rockies, Yahoo has ranked at 798. 798!!!! So, you tell us ---- who's giving you a real sleeper? Us at Waaay Back Fantasy Sports Analysis with Barmes ranked on Yahoo at 798, or ESPN who gives you Jose Reyes ranked on Yahoo at 53?

THAT is why ESPN is a waste for fantasy players. We strongly suggest you ignore their analysis. They're giving you information that's a year too late at a minimum.

Spotlight Newbie of the Week:

2005-03-27T16:58:00.000-05:00

Every week or so, we'll spotlight a "newbie" player (or players) who you might need to keep an eye on for your fantasy team in the future --- or even stash him away on your team now.

For example, last year at this time, many of us were starting our fantasy leagues, drafting, and how many of us knew of Oliver Perez? Except for the two or three Pirates fans, Peter Gammons, and Oliver Perez's momma, no one really knew of him. A few weeks into the season, and everyone started paying attention to this kid with vicious stuff. So do you want to be that guy who gets this year's Oliver Perez? We're not saying our newbies will always be that guy, but you might as well take a chance on them, because they all have the talent to me that guy. Better you than your opponent, right?

First up is Gavin Floyd, a right-handed pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies. He just had his 22nd birthday right before spring training, and had a cup of coffee with the Phillie late last year. Since Vincente Padilla is pulling his same ol' "Owwee, I'm hurt and I got a boo-boo and my mommy won't kiss it!" routine already (Geez, Vincente, can you wait until May to start this act?), the Phillies are giving Floyd a chance to shine in the #5 spot in their rotation. But like all young pitchers, he's either dominating the hell out of everyone and their mother, or he's more lit up than Whitney Houston after a bender. That said, in Floyd's first four starts this spring training, he held opponents to a .158 average before getting hammered for 8 runs in his last start. (See what we mean?) Last season for his brief appearence for for Phillies, he put up a 3.49ERA/1.45WHIP and 24Ks in 28.1 innings. BUT, he also walked 16. The guy's not being drafted in almost any league except by the junky fantasy baseball fan (like us), so that means he's more than likely available in your league (unless we're in your league and we already snatched him up...sorry). If you've got a #4 or especially a #5 starter on your squad that's really just taking up space, give Floyd a try. He'll be rocky at times, but he's a young phenom waiting to put it together. And that's the thing with these phenoms...they put it together at the damndest of times.

Second up is Clint Barmes, a second baseman that should start for the Colorado Rockies this year. He was a juggernaut in the AAA system at Colorado Spring, smacking 42 doubles and 104RBI there. If you haven't heard because you're living in Afghanistan or are just coming out of the fallout shelter from your Y2K scare, the Rockies seem to have this magical ability to score a shitload of runs. With a guy like Barmes hitting head of Todd Helton, Ohhhhh, who knows? Maybe he could have a very, very solid season for a second baseman. While he only played 20 games last year as was unspectacular, if respectable, hee's been having a scorching spring training (which, by the way, they don't hold in Colorado for the Rockies, so that means those long balls they hit are at sea level....just so you remember), and the only people talking about him are Rockies fans who seem to grab any prospect they see in their fantasy league. Why don't you grab him before your Rockies fan in your league does? We're not saying he'll steal the bases he does (because he won't), but he might have more value than a Chone Figgins or a Ryan Freel, or even a Jose Vidro or Jose Reyes --- if he hits. But we think he stands a good shot at doing that. He also qualifies at shortstop - so what else do you want?

And our last Newbie isn't such a Newbie anymore, but he's being forgotten on a mass scale, and that's Noah Lowry of the San Franciscio Giants. In 16 games last year he posted a 3.82 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with 72Ks in 92 innings of work. He's only 24 years old, and a great prospect. He's been generally solid this spring training, has a starter's job, and barely gets drafted, and even then just sits available in the vast majority of average leagues waiting to be plucked up. So why not give him a chance if you have a spot open?

Fantasy Sleepers, Deepers, Studs, and Duds for Closers and Relief Pitching...

2005-03-25T14:00:00.000-05:00

Is there more turnover at one position over the course of a season across Major League Baseball as there is with the closer? Even in the offseason, teams end up changing who their closer will be for the upcoming season. And then during the season, closers will end up sucking for their teams...which leads to a new closer taking over for that team. Or, a closer will become injured (Paging Billy Wagner...Billy Wager...), so a new closer will take over for them. Or, at the trading deadline a closer will get traded to another team desperately seeking some help for their need of a closer, so both teams end up with a new closer. Catch our drift yet? So, let's take a look at our options here, before the headaches start.

Studs:
1. Eric Gagne - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: Talk about Mr. Consistency. Forget that whole "dominace" fact with regards to his pitching. How about him pitching 82.1 innings for three straight years now? Not 82.2, not 83 --- 82.1. Fits in with his style of being the most consistent closer in baseball for those three seasons as well, though. He's averaged just under 51 saves and 122Ks, a 1.79ERA, and a 0.82WHIP per season for the past three seasons. Against right-handed pitching he's just nearly unhittable, there's no two ways to say it (righty opponents batted a sickening .129 aginst him in 2004), and if it's a day game, well, you might as well go home in the 8th inning if the Dodgers lead, since batters only hit .091 against him in 2004. He's been about as dominant as a closer can get the past three seasons. Lows: We're not saying he did or didn't, but there have been rumors that closers were some of the biggest steroid users (for the quick bounce-back so they can be at their peak the next day), and Gagne was at the head of the list. It's something to keep in mind one way or the other, but they were just that - rumors. His save total last year was the lowest it's been for him since he began as a closer, while his ERA and WHIP were at there highest, alebit still freakishly good. His walks and runs were up as well, albeit, again, still microscopically. But he's also battling witha sprained knee this spring training. It could linger all year. He's still only 29 years old and pitching in Dodger's Stadium, that pitcher's haven. He's being drafted in the 2nd to early 3rd round if you want him, and we predict a season of 2.20ERA/0.95WHIP/110+Ks/45+saves.

2. Mariano Rivera - New York Yankees : Highs: I don't know if you've heard of this guy --- he's been trying to make a name for himself with that struggling small-market New York Yankee club for years now. He's pretty good if you haven't heard. Just, oh, I don't know, a 2.43ERA and 1.07WHIP over his entire career, and a 1.94ERA and 1.08WHIP in 2004 with 53 saves - a career high. Does Mo need any explanation? He's been at it as a closer since 1997, and might go down as one of the best all-time. Playing for the Yankees doesn't hurt with all the save opportunities he gets. Only the number of strikeouts Gagne gets separates Rivera from Gagne. Lows: He's getting older. Typically, a closer has a stretch of about 8 years where they can downright dominate, and wouldn't you know, Mo has already passed that threshold. It's time to start getting wary about his age. He's been ending up on the DL for short stints more and more the past few years, and at 35 years of age, you have to wonder how quickly he can bounce back at times. And having to face the Red Sox 19 times a year doesn't help. Just like how the Yankees learned how to face Pedro Martinez over the years, making him seem downright mortal, the Red Sox have Mo's number. Evidence: in 2004, Mo's ERA against the Red Sox was 4.22, and over the past four years it's been 3.89. (Or just look to last 2004's ALCS when he imploded twice against them.) He'll face the Red Sox maybe more than any other team in 2005, so beware when he faces them and sit him that night. It sounds absurd, but numbers don't lie, folks. Expect a season of around a 2.30ERA/1.10WHIP/60Ks/40+saves, and for him to be drafted anywhere from the late 2nd (if you have a Yankee fan in your league) to late 3rd round in your draft.

3. Brad Lidge - Houston Astros : Highs: He's become the poor man's Eric Gagne, but by the end of the year he might make Gagne the poor man's Brad Lidge. He took over the closer's duties midseason in 2004 after the Astros traded Octavio Dotel to the Oakland A's, and was just as absurdedly dominant as a closer as he was a middle-reliever. Posting a season in '04 of 1.90ERA/0.92WHIP/157Ks. Houston probably won't be in position to win as many games this year, but he still should post close to 40 saves and have his great inning-to-strikeout ratio. Expect a 2005 season of 1.80ERA/0.90WHIP/100Ks/40saves. Lows: Don't expect him to pitch as many innings as he did in 2004 (94.2 innings), since as a closer the Astros will try to limit him to one inning typically, though Lidge is that type of closer who can go for 2 inning saves more often than most. But by rolling back his innings by about 15 to 20, his Ks should decrease a bit as well. And don't be freaked out if Lidge is shakey in April, as he's a little rusty sometimes right out of the gate. He's only 29, he's in the prime of his career...what are we bitching about? He's being drafted in the 4th round typically, but some people having a closer orgasm have been snatching him as early as the 2nd round. We say wait until the late 3rd at the earliest to pick him if you want him.

4. Francisco Rodriguez - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Brad Lidge is the caucasian K-Rod, let's put it that way. The only reason K-Rod come in behind Lidge is because of two reasons: Lidge had more strikeouts, and Lidge had the closer's job for more of 2004 to show what he could do in that position. (And if you don't think there's a difference between being a middle reliever and a closer...just look to Octavio "How-the-hell-am-I-in-Oakland?" Dotel) K-Rod's only 23 years old, has a healthy arm, a solid team, and posted a 2004 season of 1.82ERA/1.00WHIP/123Ks/and only 12 saves, since he filled in for the injured Troy Percival. He's got the job full time now that Percival's enjoying the sights and sounds of the Motor City, so enjoy a season of 2.05ERA/1.00+WHIP/100+Ks/40+saves. Lows: He is still young, but having played in a World Series in 2003 and having some, albeit little, closer experience already should help. He walks more batters than your Rivera or Gagne, but that's what younger pitchers do, but how about him only allowing 2 homeruns in all of 2004? That's right ---- 2. Don't expect him to pull that stunt again, but it shows what command he has. Don't worry about him struggling if you are. He's being drafted in the mid-3rd to early 4th rounds typically. A nice value, but you can't go wrong between him or Lidge.

5. Keith Foulke - Boston Red Sox : Highs: To show you the genius of the White Sox management, in 2002 they stopped using Foulke as their closer because he was struggling. Yeah, tell me about it. In 2002, he only had a 2.90ERA/1.00WHIP. That bum!! Glad the White Sox didn't try to re-sign him in 2003 when Oakland did, and where Foulke showed the White Sox what type of bum he was, posting an '03 season of 2.08ERA/0.89WHIP/88Ks/43saves. That bum! Those White Sox knew what a piece of garbage Foulke was!! So, in 2004 the Red Sox signed Foulke to a multi-year deal, and Foulke was just his typical White Sox bum self, posting a 2.17ERA/0.94/79Ks/32saves. (Please, note the sarcasm in all this.) Though Rivera seems to be labeled as a strikeout pitcher by some fantasy "experts" - he's really a groundball pitcher. Foulke, on the other hand, because he doesn't throw a 98MPH fastball, is thought to be a groundball pitcher - but really he's more of a strikeout pitcher. (Ex: 79Ks for Foulke to 66 for Rivera in 2004...and in 2003 Foulke led 88 to 63 over Rivera in Ks.)Don't be confused like your fellow fantasy leaguer players. Stay sharp. Lows: His saves went down in 2004 with the Red Sox because, well, the Red Sox didn't have as many save chances for him. The Red Sox had the greatest run differential in all of baseball...which means a closer typically doesn't get as many save chances. 2005 may or may not be the same story. But as Foulke showed in the playoffs against the Yankees and Cardinals, pressure packed situations and multi-inning games are no problem. He's one of those pitchers with a rubber arm, and is still only 32, so he's got a few years to go before you start worrying about age (unlike Mo). Expect a 2005 season of 2.00+ERA/0.95WHIP/85Ks/40saves. He's being drafted from the mid-5th to late 6th round. Compared to the numbers of Rivera and where Rivera is being drafted, that's great value for Foulke.

6. Joe Nathan - Minnesota Twins : Highs: Here's more proof how middle relievers become closers, and how closers move to new teams (Guardado), which changes closers for that team as well...and so on and so on, to the extent that it just wants to drive us insane. Alas, Joe Nathan proved last year that he's one closer who's not going to force you to become a Tylenol junky from closer headaches, as he posted one of the most consistent closer seasons in 2004, with a 1.62ERA/0.98/89Ks/44saves. This, after a 2003 season where he was maybe the best middle reliever for the San Francisco Giants when he post an ERA just north of 2.00 and won 12 games. (Is your head spinning yet? Don't let it.) The Twins are still one of the best teams in the mediocre AL Central division, and by having a good - but not dominant - lineup, the Twins should grant Nathan a ton of save opportunities. Great strikout numbers for a closer as well, too. Lows: He had a terrible August - 5.06ERA/1.50WHIP - which led some to wonder if closer pressures in the playoff chase were getting to him, but he bounced back with a huge September (1.64ERA/0.55WHIP). Playoff experience for a couple years can't hurt either. Draft Nathan and sit back and relax. Even though he's only had one season as a closer, he's sold us that he's the real deal. Expect a season of 1.75ERA/1.00WHIP/85+Ks/45saves. He's being drafted in the mid-5th to mid-6th round of a typical draft. Very solid value, again, especially when compared to Rivera being taken in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Duds:
1. Troy Percival - Detroit Tigers : Highs: Hey, we're give credit to the Tigers for finally spending money the past couple years on their team. (Now, if that idea could rub off on the Pirates and the Royals and the...) And we're not saying Percival is the biggest bust in fantasy baseball, but there are many options out there at closer you should be angling toward first. But this is the "highs" section, so let's be "high" on him...uh...he won a World Series ring with the Angels in 2003. He, umm...well...we here real estate prices have dropped around Detroit, so we bet Troy's gotten a nice deal on a fine house. And, uh...well...umm...let's just move onto the "lows" okay? Lows: You'd like to see your closers pitching about 70+ innings a season --- possibly even 80 innings. But Troy, well, he hasn't been above 60 innings since 1998, and hasn't been above 50 innings the past two seasons. His WHIP has gone up the past three seasons, up to 1.25 in 2004, which isn't the greatest number for a closer. Meanwhile, his strikeouts have decreased the past three seasons as well, down to an anemic 33 in 2004 (while he walked 19...not the greatest ratio he had going there). He's had injury issues up the whazzoo for a great deal of his career as well --- and he's 35 years old, and will turn 36 before the season's over. The Tigers should win more games this season over last year, but they're not going to be winning 95 games, so his save opportunities won't be plush. So...have you caught our drift yet? Expect a season of 3.00+ERA/1.20+WHIP/40Ks/25+saves. He's being drafted in the 10th to 11th rounds usually, which is fine to draft him for your #3 or 4th closer. But don't draft him for anything more than that, and expect an injury sometime during the season.

2. Jose Mesa - Pittsburgh Pirates : Highs: You want some analysis that appears someone was "high" when they were giving some fantasy players "advice"? A certain site we saw (we won't name names, in order to avoid them from being embarrassed) said the bullpen of the Pirates was a strength for them (true), and that was lead by Jose Mesa. Huh????? He, I loved Mesa in 2004. He was a great very late draft pick and free agent pickup in 2004, and for an emergency closer/#3 or #4 closer was as good as it gets. But he's a strength? Mesa?!?! Are we talking about the same Jose Mesa here? Here's why we cut through the BS here at Waaay Back Fantasy Analysis and stop being emanored with players for no apparent reason. Now, if only we could get other fantasy baseball analysis sites off the drugs. Just say No! Lows: Here's why our fellow fantasy analyst at a competing site was high: Mesa had a 3.25ERA/1.41WHIP in 2004. A 1.41WHIP for a closer. That's horrible. That's horrible for a starting pitcher, never mind a closer. For a closer, that's reason to lose your job. Or how about batters hit .291 against him in 2004. THAT'S AWFUL! This was after a stellar 2003 when Mesa had a season with Philadelphia where he posted a 6.52ERA/1.76WHIP/.296BAA. Sweet mother of Moses, that's horrible. (And Mesa's a strength????) How about this: for his career, Mesa's posted 4.27ERA/1.47WHIP. For...his...career. He's a friggin' closer, people. You're not supposed to be pitching like that. And we leave you with these two lows: He's turning 39 years old in May of this year, and he has Mike Gonzalez pitching lights-out middle relief ahead of him. If Mesa sucks up the joint - which is highly possible - Gonzalez could always become the closer, and it happens more often for mediocre teams during the season than not. So, uhh, yeah, Mesa's a "strength"----suuuuure. Anyway, we still love Mesa. We really do. Expect a season of a 4.00+ERA/1.40WHIP/30+saves if he keeps the job all season. He's being drafted in anywhere from the 10th to 12th round. ONLY draft him as your last closer for your team, and hold off as long as possible to draft him.

3. Miguel Batista - Toronto Blue Jays : Highs: Well, he's got a great name. "Miguel Batista" --- it just rolls off the tongue really well, don't you think? Especially if you give it a deep Latin accent --- it's a great name. Sounds like the name of a Lothario, a Latin lover., etc. And, well, Batista is playing in Toronto, which is really a great city to visit sometime. We highly recommend it. Great people, great North American city. We hope Miguel enjoys it. Otherwise, well, there's not much to say about Batista in the "highs" section. Lows: That's because of a multitude of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that Toronto plays musical chairs with their closer more often than a group of six-year olds do at a birthday party. Today - right now - it's Batista. So, let's look at how this starter-turned-closer looks statistically. He's a career 4.46ERA/1.44WHIP guy who in 2004 posted a 4.80ERA/1.52WHIP. He's never been a strikeout guy, only having about 4 to 5 Ks per 9 innings, while opponents over his career have batted at a .265 clip --- very average to say the least. Is he the next Eric Gagne - a guy who was a starter to become a closer? Seriously doubtful. Can he be a solid option for a closer? What's your definition of solid? Batista is hard to judge because he's become a closer for the first time, and we have no clue as to how he'll take to the job. It takes a certain mental makeup to become a solid closer, and only time will tell with Batista. That, and how quickly Toronto will stick with him if he struggles at times. We won't wager a guess on his ERA/WHIP numbers, but if he keeps the job, we'll say he eclipses 30 saves. He's being drafted from anywhere from 13th round to not being drafted at all - falling throuigh the cracks and going under the radar to the waiver wire. He's definitely worth a mid-teen round gamble, as at best he'll at lest give you some saves. So don't forget him, but don't make him your cornsertone closer by any strech of the imagination. He's a true gamble.

Sleepers:
1. B.J. Ryan - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Here is yet another middle reliever becoming a closer this season, but it's not as if Jorge Julio didn't lose the job outright with his wretched performance in 2004. Ryan's been moving on up the past few seasons with his performace, having his ERA, WHIP, and his opponents batting average against improve for two straight seasons, ending up in 2004 with a 2.28ERA/1.14WHIP/.200BAA. Oh, yeah, and he had 122Ks in 87 innings last year. Not bad. He's just turned 29 years old, so it's more than likely he's just a late bloomer as a relief pitcher. Lows: Jorge Julio still has an outside shot at keeping the closer's job, though he should be starting the season (and remaining the season) as the set-up man. Ryan's career ERA and WHIP numbers aren't dazzling (3.79/1.36), but as we pointed out above, they've improved for two straight years, being outright dominant in 2004. He's downright unhittable against lefties (they batted only .096 in 2004 against him), but righties do hit at a .252 clip. He'll have to improve on that. That, and the Orioles will score a ton of runs, the question is whether their starting pitching can keep a lead until they get to their closer. Expect Ryan to be fine when he does get the ball though. A season of 3.00ERA/1.20WHIP/35+saves/90+Ks (100+ if he works enough innings) seems easily attainable. He's being drafted from the 9th to the 11th round - good value, though he comes with a slight risk.

2. Jeremy Affeldt - Kansas City Royals : Highs: This is the "sleepers" section, remember? This means the guy might not be the best option, the first option, a top-20 option, but he's a guy with a ton of upside. Okay? That said, Affeldt is only 25 years old - 26 in June. He's a lefty (gotta love those lefties), has filthy stuff, and has the job. The ceiling is high and ready to be shattered --- the question is whether Affeldt does it this season. Lows: His career and 2004 numbers are very unimpressive. He was a young pitcher, and he's looked it - massively - at times. He was ouright terrible in August and September of '04, and that's not the way to finish up a season, but ending up with a 4.95ERA/1.61WHIP wasn't instilling hope in anyone. But the Royals have given him the job, and the most likely other option is Mike MacDougal who lost the job to Affeldt --- so it's Affeldt's for now, and most likely all season if he's healthy. Listen, the Royals aren't winning much in 2005 (hate to break the news), so Affeldt's not going to have 50 saves. He's going to struggle at times most likely. But his ability to pitch is so high, there's no way the Royals don't give him a chance. There's a strong possibility that he becomes a top-15 closer in 2005...and just as likely he struggles like a young pitcher would. He's being drafted in the 14th and 15th rounds --- and that's a great time to take a flyer on him.

Deepers:
1. Mike Gonzalez - Pittsburgh Pirates : Highs: He's turning 27 years old in May, played his first full season in 2004, and only had a 1.25ERA/0.88WHIP/55Ks in 43.1 innings. And once Jose Mesa implodes (oh, come on, we all know he's likely to do so eventually), Gonzalez seems to be first in line for the job. If he pitches 80+ innings for the season, you're looking at a reliever with over 100Ks. Lows: Granted, he doesn't have the closer's job --- yet. And it took Gonzalez some time to work his way through the minors to become the reliever he's become. But that's what 30th round drafted pitchers do (which Gonzalez was) --- take some time to develop. He walked only 6 batters and opponents batted only .201 against him in 2004, so he's the real deal. The Pirates are just watching and waiting for Mesa's time to be up. Gonzalez is barely being drafted in many leagues, and when he is drafted it's the 20th+round usually. But another dominant year on par with 2004 is likely, and he's worth a pick just for his ERA and WHIP numbers. But if he gets the closer's job, then you've got yourself a steal.

Other Quality Options for Closer:
1. Billy Wagner - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: Ahh, the "Baby-Faced Assassin" -- the only reason he doesn't qualify under the "studs" category are the health injuries he's had for awhile now. In 2000, he dealt with major arm issues. In 2004, more injury issues arose. Though he's healthy now, it's always something you have to keep in mind with Wagner. One of the hardest throwers in baseball, Baby-Face has a career 2.52ERA/1.02WHIP, and has averaged WELL over 9Ks per 9 innings. Though injured for bits in 2004, he still posted a 2.42ERA/0.77WHIP with 21 saves. Philly has a chance to win the NL East this season, and their offense has plenty of power to it, so there should be many chances for svaes for Wagner. Lows: Ahh, but can he be healthy all season? He is 33 years old, but turning 34 just after the midway point in the season. His whole ability to be successful is based on his blazing fastball (100mph is fairly common for him), but that takes a strain on the arm after awhile. If age slows that fastball down, then Wagner will start to get smacked around more often. It hasn't started yet, but obviously the Astros didn't mind seeing him go after 2003, so you know they're wondering about it as well. Expect a season of 2.50ERA/o.90WHIP/75+Ks (if he pitches 60+innings)/40+saves. He's being drafted anywhere from the 5th to 7th round in a typical draft, depending on how high a manager is on Wagner this year. If he falls to the 7th round, that's a great value.

2. Francisco Cordero - Texas Rangers : Highs: The only person more zesty than Cordero at times is Charo, and she's not pitching in relief last I heard. (She was a B-level star in the '70's and '80's for those unaware.) Over the last three years, his ERA has averaged 2.29, and he's averaging just over 9Ks per 9innings, as well as hitters only hitting .220 against him during the past 3 years. The Rangers might play in a hitter's park, but the Rangers can bop with the best of them, and should challenge for the AL West despite their mediocre starting pitching. That should allow Cordero to have plenty of save opportunities. Lows: He's not the greatest with command, and he needs to work on it, though in 2004 he got his walks down to 32, which is respectable, if not jaw-dropping. (For example, Gagne had 22 walks, Rivera 20, and Foulke only 15 in 2004.) We'd love to see his walks get down to under 30, possibly 25, before we promote him to stud status. He's going to turn 30 years old in May (but he is Dominican, and we know that means he might be 35 for all we know), so he should still have a few solid years left in the tank. Expect a season of 2.50ERA/1.30WHIP/80+Ks/45saves. He's being drafted in the 6th to 7th round, which is solid value.

3. Jason Isringhausen - St. Louis Cardinals : Highs: Izzy is a tale two relief pitchers. One, a middling pitcher not worth a mention in any fantasy leagues. The other, a solid closer for a number of years. For the first half of his career Izzy was the former, and for the better part of the past six years, he's been the latter pitcher. Over the last six years, Izzy's averaged a 2.71ERA/1.17WHIP season. Typically, he's never gone for more than 30-35 saves in a season, except in 2004 when he shot up to 47 saves. That was an anomaly, as the Cards put him into a position to make those saves with their solid starting pitching and fantastic lineup. Expect a return to maybe 40 saves this season, with his usual 2.70ERA/1.20WHIP. Lows: He was injury-plagued for the beginning of his career, and he's a case of a stereotype holding on firm to a player when it no longer holds much water. Sure, players have little injuries here and there that forces them to miss a game or two, but Izzy's been healthy and pitched 65+ innings for 4 of the last 5 seasons. (The lone season he didn't he played 2/3 of the season.) In a way, Isringhausen is undervalued by fantasy players who believe his numbers are worse than they are or that he's more of an injury risk than he has really been. He's still only 32 years old and should still have a couple more years left in the tank. With the Cardinals backing him, he's a solid closer option, and he's being drafted around the 8th round, which makes him a pretty valuable pick at closer compared to some who'll be drafted 3 to 5 rounds ahead of him.

4. Trevor Hoffman - San Diego Padres : Highs: He'll go down as one of the most underappreciated closers in the history of baseball. Why? Probably because east coast baseball junkies have gone to bed by the time he comes into games, and sportscasts on local TV and the ESPN SportsCenter's of the world won't be able to show his highlights before those people go to bed either...so he gets underappreciated by the public at hand. A career 2.74ERA/1.04WHIP, he posted a 2004 with 2.30ERA/0.91WHIP/41 saves. The Padres have a solid team going for them this year, and their park is a pitcher's delight, so Hoffman is in the best possible situation for a closer --- close games and a pitcher's park. Lows: The most obvious problem is age. He's 37 years old, and if the Padres make the playoffs, he'll turn 38 during them. He spent most of 2003 injured, appearing in only 9 games, and hasn't pitched 60+ innings since 2001 - over three full seasons. He seems relatively healthy right now in spring training, but it's something to keep an eye on with Hoffman. Drafting him comes with serious risk, especially just over his age alone. It's strongly suggested that if you use him as your #1 or #2 closer that you have a backup from the Padres (such as Akinori Otsuka) stashed away on your bench just in case. A season of sub-3.00ERA/1.12WHIP/35+saves seems easily attainable. He's being drafted in the mid-8th to mid-9th round.

5. Armando Benitez - San Francisco Giants : Highs: Had a huge bounce-back season in 2004, posting 1.29ERA/0.82WHIP/47 saves with the Marlins. He's got a solid, if not blow-you-out-of-your-seat strikout to inning ratio (about one an inning...little less). He's one of those closers who's been highly dependable with always easting up a consistent number of innings every year. Though saves are hugely important when looking at a closer, the consistency of innings they pitch one year to the next is a barometer of how dependable they'll be for you. And Benitez has pitched 65+ innings 8 straight seasons, with 70+ innings 5 of those times. Though the Giants have lost Barry Bonds for God knows how long (depends on if Barry gets another shipment of "flaxseed oil" soon, I guess), they still have the sort of team that'll have plenty of close games in need of a closer. 40-50 saves are not out of the question, even over 50. A season of 2.35ERA/1.15WHIP/45 saves is possible. Lows: If he were in kindergarden, you'd swear he had cooties, since he's moving to his 5th team in just over two seasons. Though with the Marlins he was downright dominant, a rocky 2003 had him shipped to three teams, and the Marlins either didn't want to spend the money or didn't care enough to keep him for 2005. That very well says something about a guy's character. In years past (though not 2004) Benitez has had some serious control issues, walking batters at much too high a clip (41 walks throughout 2003, and 4 of the last 8 seasons he's had 40 or more). It's something to keep an eye on, as it can hurt your WHIP and if he's not careful, it'll lead to an inflation in his ERA...and yours. But we'll give him the benefit of the doubt that the 40+walk days are behind him. He's being drafted higher than we'd like, anywhere from the late 5th to late 7th round. We don't suggest the late 5th round at all, but can very well easily justify the 7th round.

6. Octavio Dotel - Oakland Athletics : Highs: He was as good as it got for middle relivers for 2001-2003, and the Astros thought he could handle the reigns of a closer, so they shipped Billy Wagner. For those three seasons as a middle reliever, he averaged 120Ks/2.33ERA/1.01WHIP. Let's just say 2004 wasn't so kind when he became a closer. Is there a bright side to 2005 for him? Well, Oakland's ballyard is a pitcher's park with it acres of foul ground on both base sides, and for a power pitcher like Dotel, those late swings by a batter can lead to numerous foul balls if he's on his game...foul balls caught in Oakland for an out that would be 10 rows back in Fenway or Yankee Stadium. He can become the pitcher he was for those three seasons. He's only one year removed. Take a chance. Lows: That said, 2004 was not kind to Mr. Dotel. Maybe it was Oakland. Maybe it was the marijuana floating out of Billy Beane's office. (I kid, Billy. I kid cause I care.) Maybe Barry Zito was just rubbing off on Dotel. A 4.09ERA/1.16WHIP in Oakland was not what anyone was expecting. That said, between Houston and Oaklnd last year, he surprisingly had 122 strikeouts. So, while other fantasy "experts" are saying Dotel lost a lot of spped because of the bloated ERA, his strikeout numbers beg to differ. His elbow wasn't right last year, admittedly, but he still has the ability. His WHIP and BAA in 2004weren't all that different from his career numbers. Sometimes, the cookie doesn't crumble like you'd like it to, and for Dotel, maybe 2004 was the year his cookie just wasn't holding up. We expect a mild comeback this year. A season of 2.90ERA/1.20WHIP/90+Ks (if 75+innings pitched) and 35+saves as a strong possibility. He's being drafted in the mid-7th to late-8th round in your typical draft.

7. Shingo Takatsu - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Good ol' Shingo. Came over from Japan last year and performed hypnotizing tricks on batters throughout the AL, posting a 2.31ERA/0.98WHIP and opponents could only manage a .182 batting average against him. He was a great reliever for years in Japan, and like many players in recent years from the Japanese league, decided to give it a go in the majors before his career was through. The White Sox should challenge for the AL Central, and their starting pitching isn't horrible, so there should be ample enough opportunities for him to make saves. Lows: Buuuuut, Shingo's hypnotizing tricks seemed to be wearing thin in the second half of the 2004 season. Pre-all-star break he posted 1.30ERA/0.81WHIP numbers, but after the all-star break his tricks weren't working as well, posting only 3.58ERA/1.19WHIP. Eeeek. Shingo's also 36 years old...and is lucky if he can crack 87-88mph on the radar gun. Hitter's started laying off his "trick" pitches and waited for his soft fastball, and his numbers started to inflate. The question is whether he can trick AL hitters any longer. He'll have the closer's job for the first couple months in Chicago, no doubt, and very well might keep the job all year, so he has some solid value. We expect an inflation in his overall numbers this year, around 3.00ERA/1.15WHIP/30+saves if he keeps the job. He's being drafted around the 11th and 12th round, and that's fine value.

8. Braden Looper - New York Mets : Highs: Well, we'll give him this: he's dependable. For three straight years he's pitched 80+ innings per year. Over that time, his ERA was just over 3.00 and his WHIP 1.26. The Mets have a better - if not good, yet - team, and Shea Stadium always helps pitchers like Looper. Lows: But we're still talking about a guy who struggled to have the closer's job with the Marlins in 2003, and has a career 3.53ERA/1.36WHIP. Hitters still hit .266 against him in 2004, and he's still never had 30 or more saves in a season before. He's overrated by fantasy players generally. Can he have a standout year? Absolutely, but why gamble on him when you can gamble more intelligently elsewhere? He's already over 30 years old, so odds are that we've seen what he's capable of as a pitcher, unless he has a career year. Expect a season of 3.00ERA/1.20+WHIP/25+ saves. He's being drafted in the 10th to 11th round, which is fine for a #2 or #3 closer.

9. Danny Kolb - Atlanta Braves : Highs: Leo Mazzone Alert! Leo Mazzone Alert!! Leo Mazzone Alert!!! Yes, we're high on Leo Mazzone. The guy's only proved it for over a decade now that he's made a deal with the Devil to create magic that few pitching coaches could ever possibly do. Now he gets to work with Danny Kolb. The past two years he's averaged a 2.47ERA/1.21WHIP for the Brewers, along with 30 saves per year on average (39 in 2004). Now, he's on a team in the Braves that will, oh, I don't know, win some games actually, and Mazzone looking over his shoulder. A season of 2.90ERA/1.20WHIP/40+saves seems reachable. Lows: He doesn't have a devestating fastball by any stretch of the imagination, and he really started to stall badly in the second half of the season (4.88ERA). If he were still pitching for the Brewers this season, we'd be down on him. But Mazzone is still Mazzone, and that means he'll fix whatever is wrong with Kolb. He's being drafted in the 9th round on average in your typical league.

10. Guillermo Mota - Florida Marlins : Highs: He's been out-and-out great at times as a middle reliever in his career, and now he joins a solid Marlins team that should challenege the Braves for the NL East (who are we kidding...the Braves always win that division). In 2003 and 2004 with the Dodgers, he averaged a 2.06ERA/1.12WHIP. He's been good, there's no doubt about it. Lows: But, he is yet another middle reliever who's moving to the closer role steadily for the first time. When he had some attempts at being it with the Marlins in 2004 (after the Dodgers traded him), his ERA bloated up to 4.81. Not all middle relievers can be a closer. But we're not saying he can't, but he might have some hiccups along the way. Look at Octavio Dotel, for example. Yet, maybe Mota turns out to be more Brad Lidge than Dotel when all is said and done (minus the strikeouts). Expect a season of 3.10ERA/1.10WHIP/35+saves, and he's going in the late 9th to early 10th round in your average draft.

Other Options Available at Closer:
1. Eddie Guardado - Seattle Mariners : The injury bug seems to have attacked him and refused to let go the past year and change. He has hamstring issues (which can linger) already this season, but should start the season. The Mariners have improved (offensively at least), so they should provide more save chances. But there are better options than the injury-risk "No-Longer-Everyday" Eddie. He might get 30+ svaes if healthy. He's going in the 10th and 11th rounds of a draft typically. We suggest going with Danny Kolb over Eddie.

2. Danny Graves - Cincinnati Reds : If you look at only his career as a closer, he's never been a dominant one. ERA is always above 3.00 usually, and a WHIP over 1.25. Sometimes those numbers can be a great deal worse, though, so we don't suggest him highly. He's fine as a #3 closer, or an emergency grab as a #2 closer. He's being drafted anywhere from the 10th to 12th round.

3. Danys Baez - Tampa Bay Devil Rays : It is the D-Rays after all, which means he's not going to get 50 saves anytime soon. He's going to post numbers similar to Graves, but is more often drafted after Graves. Might as well wait and take Baez --- the later you take him, the greater the value.

4. Chad Cordero/Luis Ayala- Washington Nationals : They might spilt the closer's duties, but if you need a few stray saves, you can always grab one and milk a few saves. Cordero seems to be the better option to grab the job fully. He's being drafted in the 13th to 14th round usually.

5. Bob Wickman - Cleveland Indians : Missed all of 2003 due to injury, after a below-average 2002 4.46ERA/1.51WHIP), and 2004 wasn't much better. He has the job, so he's good for saves if anything, and Cleveland should offer him plenty of chances. He's being drafted in the 13th and 14th rounds on average.

Some Middle Relievers to Possibly Draft:
(we're just rattling off the names...just trust us stat-wise they're solid)
1. Mike Gonzalez - Pittsburgh Pirates (check him out in "deepers" section above)
2. Akinori Otsuka - San Diego Padres
3. Scott Linebrink - San Diego Padres
4. Tom Gordon - New York Yankees
5. Ryan Madson - Philadelphia Phillies
6. Matt Mantei - Boston Red Sox (if healthy)
7. Ray King - St. Louis Cardinals (if healthy)
8. LaTroy Hawkins - Chicago Cubs (will start season as Cubs closer...might keep the job if he's solid)
9. Juan Rincon - Minnesota Twins
10. Brendan Donnelly - Los Angeles Angels

Fantasy Sleepers, Deepers, Studs and Duds for Starting Pitching...

2005-03-17T12:08:00.000-05:00

The starting pitcher: the man who's one arm injury away from screwing your for the entire season if you don't play your cards right. Also the position where a no-name guy who's been toiling around baseball for the better part of a decade can have a career year and make you look like a genius because you stumbled into him. The fun and excitement we can have with our starting pitchers. The crop this year seems a little thin when compared to past years...so let us take a look:

Studs:
1. Johan Santana - Minnesota Twins: Highs: The man whose first name sounds as if he should be from Sweden (he hails from Venezuela...yeah, go figure), was all-world in 2004, running away with Cy Young honors and cementing his place atop everyone's list for best pitchers. He just turned 26 years old, is a lefty (because God loves a lefty in baseball), and posted a 20-6 record with a 2.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 265 Ks, and only 54 walks --- the guy was a machine. He was always expected to be great, but the Twins screwed around by using him as an emergency starter and long reliver for a couple years. (Gotta love those Twins.) In 2003 he posted a 3.07 ERA, and in 2002 he offered up a 2.99 ERA --- so it's not as if this guy's just catching on in 2004. He's as good as they get these days, young, with a strong - healthy - arm, on a solid team that should win some games, with high strikeout totals, and eye-poping ERA and WHIP numbers. Do I really need to sell you on this guy? Lows: But here's something to be wary of. Through April and May of 2004, he held an ERA of 5.60 and a WHIP of 1.48. He allowed as many earned runs in July, August, and September combined as he allowed in just May. He's been known to have horrible Aprils and Mays, so if he starts off slowly again in 2005 that way, don't assume the worst. Those that assumed the worst in 2004 and traded Santana were bitten in the ass later when he pitched as good for four months to end the season as baseball had ever seen - literally. He's one of those pitchers that needs a few weeks at the beginning of the season to work out the kinks...and boy does he work out the kinks. Expect him to go in the early to late first round, and post a season of sub-3.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 250+ Ks, and 20+wins.

2. Randy Johnson - New York Yankees : Highs: The man with the world class porn star name brings his services to the Yankees. When he's not smacking around news camermen and telling them not to talk back to him (sweet guy), he's whiffing batters. He's going to punch his ticket to Cooperstown whenever he decides to retire, and posted another fantastic season in 2004 for the Arizna D-Backs, putting up a 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, with 290 Ks. His win/loss record wasn't anything to marvel at being 16-14, as the anemic D-Backs offense offered horrible run support. His batting average against in '04 was a frightening .197 (frightening for hitters, that is), which was below his career average of .213. Now with the Yankees offense behind him, people high on furniture polish fumes are saying he'll win 30 games. Ain't going to happen, but he should be good for 20+ wins. Lows: But there is cause for concern here, more than just age, but let's start there. He's 41 years old, and turns 42 before the season ends. His strikeouts per 9 innings for a full season with one team (excusing those seasons where he was injured at times of traded) in 2004 was the lowest it's been since 1992. When he strikes out 290 in 2004, it's easy to dismiss that. But this is a guy who needed 245 innings to strikeout 290 --- when he used to strikeout 372 in 249 innings (2001 in Arizona). His Ks have dropped for two consecutive seasons (not counting his injured 2003), and for a strikeout pitcher that's a warning sign. Not helping matters is the fact that he's moving to the American League, where he won't get a pitcher at the bottom of every lineup to strikeout 2 or 3 times a game. Is he still going to have an amazing season if healthy? Probably. Is he a sure thing? Not by a long shot. Mr. Porn Star Name is being drafted in the last 1st round, so if you want him, draft him early.

3. Curt Schilling - Boston Red Sox : Highs: A career 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, Schilling's coming off of a year where he was 21-6/3.26ERA/1.06WHIP/203Ks. 3 of the last 4 seasons he's won 21+ games and pitched over 220 innings and struck out 200+ batters. He moved from the NL to the AL last season (which Mr. Porn Star Name is trying to do for the first time in years this season) which affected his strikeout totals, but he still had impressive K numbers nonetheless. (But he's proof how the move from one league to the other will drop your strikeout numbers.) He still has a lineup backing him that'll rack up massive runs, which will help give him a few wins when he's not pitching his best on a given night. He should be good for another 20+wins/3.30ERA/1.10WHIP/200+K season. Lows: The ankle, the ankle, the ankle. Have you heard about his ankle? Maybe? Maybe you haven't, because it didn't get much attention. Does a bloody sock ring a bell? Bloody socks, limping, playoffs? Don't remember? (We kid.) He's well into his rehab, but with the Red Sox having so many off days to start the season, don't be surprised to see them go with a 4-man rotation and let Schilling have 2 weeks on the DL just to get his mechanics down. If he somehow doesn't start, he'll at worst miss a start or two. In 2003 he missed some time to injury, but they were freak injuries. One was his appendix bursting (plenty have been there before), and the other injury was a line drive back to the mound that broke his pitching hand. In both cases he came back to pitch fine in 2003. He'll do so again in 2004 with his ankle. If Roger Clemens (similar physiques) is any comparison, then Schilling's practically a spring chicken in life being 38 years old. Expect him to be drafted in the middle to late 2nd round. Solid value for that position.

4. Pedro Martinez - New York Mets: Highs: Petey...he's difficult to decipher. A career 2.71 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, he's already a lock for the Hall of Fame should he retire tomorrow. He had a string of seasons from 1997 to 2003 that can only be matched by very few pitchers in history, most notably Sandy Koufax. The best part of looking forward to the 2005 season is that he's making the move to the NL, which should help his overall numbers which were lackluster in 2004. His career numbers at Shea Stadium (though dated, since he hasn't been there in years): 1.17ERA/0.76WHIP/39Ks in seven games --- 5 of which were starts. Can't say it enough, but Roger Clemens proved how the jump from AL to NL can greatly improve your mediocre numbers in the AL the previous season. Lows: 2004 was possibly his worst season in his career. He posted a career high ERA or 3.90, and has only one shutout in the last four seasons. He's lost some speed off of his fastball, but he can dominate by using his other pitches. He's one of the smartest players in all of baseball (and arrogant), and can outhink most batters. That said, he's lost Jason Varitek as his catcher, and there's not a pitcher in baseball who won't tell you how Varitek can help you get a batter out. Martinez also still has the shoulder that has everyone wondering if it'll hold up. He wouldn't allow the Mets to take an MRI of his shoulder during free agency, so you know he's still hiding something in there. That said, a season of 15+wins/3.00ERA/1.10WHIP/220+Ks seems very likely if he's healthy. IF he's healthy.

5. Jason Schmidt - San Francisco Giants : Highs: The clearest example of a late bloomer if there ever was one, Schmidt really blossomed once he joined the Giants. Never having an ERA below 4.00 before he joined the Giants, and never having an ERA above 4.00 since he's joined them, Schmidt's averaged a 3.10 ERA the last four years, and a 1.15WHIP. He posted a career high in strikouts in '04, and is still only 32 with a healthy arm. A solid Giants team can easily help Schmidt post his forst 20 win season. Lows: The bookend months of the season are easily Schmidt's worst months, as in April and September in his career he's posted a 4.41 and 4.38ERA respectively, while no other month does he have an ERA above 4.00, and in 2004 that was no different. In April he posted a 5.63ERA and in September a 5.53ERA - while no other month in '04 did he post an ERA above 3.50. Don't be shocked in Schmidt pulls the same stunt again in 2005, spending April trying to work out his kinks. A season of 3.20ERA/1.15WHIP/210+Ks and 18+wins seems likely with a healthy season. He's being drafted in the mid-2nd round in a rush of quality pitchers, but he's no better or worse than any available right then.

6. Mark Prior - Chicago Cubs : Highs: (((Sigh))) Let's be positive right out of the gate right now. There's no one with more potential in their little pinky finger than most other pitchers have in their entire arm than Prior. For his career he's posted an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.18. He's one of the few starters who has a better than strikeout per inning average in their careers, and he's very Schilling-esque in his command of the plate. Simply put, if healthy, je's as good as it gets in baseball. Lows: Problem is, there must be some tribe out there in the world with voodoo dolls of Prior that they're jabbing with needles every day. Already in 2005, he has a swollen elbow, which should push him back from making opening day. He very well might miss all of April from it. 2004 wasn't his most sterling moment in his short career, as his ERA ballooned up to 4.02 and he held a WHIP of 1.35. Part of that has to deal with the fact that he was coming back from an Achilles issue which affected his pitching style, which in turn led to the swollen numbers. He's being drafted in the very late 2nd to 3rd round in a typical 12 team draft. That's very risky for a pitcher with such an injury background. If you're an eternal optimist, then go for it. Otherwise, we don't suggest you draft him unless his value drops in the next couple weeks before the season starts.

7. Roger Clemens - Houston Astros : Highs: Oh, I don't know, this kid Clemens is struggling to make a name for himself. He only has 7 Cy Young awards, and he only had an ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP 1.16 at the age of 41 and 42. He's scraping by. I mean, 328 wins and 4317 strikeouts --- he's obviously holding on to keep a job this season. Not much is known about this Clemens kid. Just a nobody trying to make a name for himself. He only had 219 strikeouts last season, and only won 18 games. You know the type --- a guy barely hanging on. Lows: In all seriousness, Clemens has one of three things going on: he's a genetic freak, he's on the 'roids, or Satan is expecting Clemens to pay up on the deal we made by giving him his first born child. Clemens will turn 43 before this season is over, and though he's been machine-like with his health, that's always a massive risk with taking on a 43 year old pitcher. His post-all-star break ERA was 3.41, up from 2.61 before the break. That's age talking by that point, tiring out. The best thing he did was move to the NL, as his Ks improved in 2004. He should still have a solid enough season, but he does come with a huge risk in having "that year" in which he implodes. We're not predicting it, we're just saying it remains a possibility. A season of 3.50 ERA/16+wins/1.20WHIP/200 Ks seems likely, and he should be drafted anywhere from mid-4th to early 6th round. Taken in the 6th round would be a solid pick.

Duds:
1. Mike Mussina - New York Yankees : Highs: It's a high point that this guy has somehow managed to swindle ESPN, the print media, and millions of fantasy baseball fans into thinking he's the Mike Mussina of his prime with the Baltimore Orioles. That takes talent, and we applaud him for that. As for the pitching high points: you may have heard he plays for the Yankees, which means -- assuming his arm doesn't get torn off because Randy Johnson was mad he looked at him -- he should win 15+ wins as a sure thing. He's a durable pitcher, having very few serious injury issues as at all in his career, and he has a career 3.59 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Lows: Though, don't be expecting those type of numbers in 2005. He turned 36 years old, and he sure as hell doesn't have Clemens' or Schilling's physique. Over the last 3 years with the Yanks he's averaged an ERA over 4.00, and he isn't a flame thrower to get himself out of jams when he needs to. While his post-all-star numbers for 2004 offered an ERA of 3.45, that was only over 57 innings of work. In his 18 starts before the all-star break he posted an ERA of 5.20. He was a train wreck away from Yankee Stadium in 2004 as well, posting a 5.25 ERA on the road, and in night games he posted a 5.11 ERA. If you can pitch Mussina only during day games or games at Yankee Stadium, you should be golden. Otherwise, why bother? Can he still post a solid all-around season again? Sure. But why bother when there are other options out there? An optimistic season of 15+wins/4.1oERA/1.25WHIP/140+Ks is possible. So is another year of horrible mediocrity.

2. Barry Zito - Oakland Athletics : Highs: The Laid-Back King of the Bay Area apparently has some incriminating photos of GM Billy Beane and farm animals, because somehow or another Beane didn't trade Zito but ended up trading Hudson and Mulder. (It is the Bay Area after all, so it's entirely possible Beane has started using mushrooms.) Zito's a former Cy Young award winner (in which Pedro Martinez is still pissed off over) with a 3.41ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his career, and he's very durable, having pitched 200+ innings in each of the past 4 seasons. He'll just be turning 27 in May of this season, so he's still young enough to turn himself around. Lows: Let's quit this optimistic BS. His ERA, WHIP, runs, earned runs, and hits have gone up each of the past two seasons, while his win total for each of the past two seasons have gone down --- to a stellar 11 victories in 2004. Now he gets to burden the idea that he's the "ace" of the A's staff in 2005, all while trying to overcome some shoddy run support with a rather anorexic A's lineup. Who doesn't want to draft this gold quality option? He's being drafted in the 8th to 9th round in many fantasy leagues, which doesn't seem like a huge risk, but why take him ahead of Matt Clement, Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle, AJ Burnett or Greg Maddux, among others? Barry still has plenty of time to turn it around, and maybe he becomes the pitcher he was three years ago again, but you can't change the fact that he'll still have a bad offense around him.

3. Javier Vazquez - Arizona Diamondbacks : Highs: Well, we hear Arizona has some great golf courses. That's got to be a high point for Vazquez. And the Phoenix Suns look like they'll be solid in the NBA playoffs, so maybe he can get some tickets for a game or two and have himself a good time. Lows: Vazquez was overrated before 2004, but going to the Yankees will swindle all "experts" and fantasy players alike. For his career, Vazquez has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. How did those numbers swindle everyone into thinking he was an ace? He has a career win/loss record of 78-78. Woo! Look out world! Capt. .500 is on the scene! Oppenents over his career have batted .260 against him, which isn't the stuff of aces. Actually, that's rather average. Very average. And now he gets to join a team that made Randy Johnson a .500 pitcher last season. What a bargain! The only bright spot is that he's moved back to the NL, so his Ks should go up, and there should be a slight improvement in both his ERA and WHIP, though nothing stellar. The most disturbing thing isn't that he crumbled like an overcooked cookie under the spotlight of New York City, but that fantasy players are drafting him in the 10th and 11th rounds. If you're going to go for a risk on a player, risk it on a guy with a sky-high ceiling, not a guy with a career 4.26 ERA and playing for a last place team.

4. Jaret Wright - New York Yankees : Highs: The Javier Vazquez Award for Biggest Swindle in 2005 created by the New York Yankees goes to.....(((drumroll)))....Jaret Wright!!! Come up here Jaret and accept your award, you silly bastard! Congratulations! Not just any pitcher can win this award. You have to be a bad pitcher who has a great season under the perfect conditions who throws a mickey in the Yankees drinks at the winter meetings in the offseason, so that way you can get them to spend big bucks on you. That takes talent, kid, and it shows you've got it. It also allows you to be drafted by a myriad of uppity fantasy baseball players who assume any player who plays for the Yankees is a future hall of famer. You've got that, kid! You're clearly the winner of the 2005 Javier Vazquez Award, so feel free to go out there and prove us all correct! Lows: Listen to us clearly, because if there is any bit of advice that you should listen to us about it is the following: The Atlanta Braves pitching coach, Leo Mazzone, could make your 85 year old arthritic grandmother who has had two hip replacements, is blind in one eye, and has sores on the bottom of her feet an all-star caliber pitcher. There is no one --- NO ONE --- better in the game when it comes to helping a pitcher through a season than Leo Mazzone. He proved it once again with Jaret Wright last season. Wright has a career 5.09 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while opponents have batted .272 against him. Please feel free to re-read those stats. Those stats include his great 2004 numbers averaged in. But Leo Mazzone performed his typical magic and made Wright into a pitcher who over 2004 posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Wright became a free agent, took the money from the Yankees and ran. He went from the NL in '04 to the AL in '05 and left Mazzone. How do you think this is going to turn out? He makes Javier Vazquez look like Pedro Martinez, circa 1999. It doesn't matter that fantasy players are drafting him in the 13th or 14th rounds --- they're delusional. Stay away. Unless the Yankees hire Leo Mazzone tomorrow, stay away.

Sleepers:
1. Jeremy Bonderman - Detroit Tigers : Highs: He's just 22 years old, was a highly touted first round pick in 2001, and had a 2004 with a lot of upside to it. He only posted a 4.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, but he also struck out 168. Post all-star break he posted an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.10 --- that opens your eyes a bit more, now doesn't it? It doesn't hurt that he gets to pitch in Comerica Park for half of his starts, either, or that he averages just under a strikout per inning pitched. He compares very favorably to Rich Harden of the Oakland A's, and now that he has two seasons under his belt, we're expecting good things in 2005. Expect a season of 3.90ERA/15 wins/1.25WHIP/170+Ks. Not bad for a pitcher that can be had anywhere from the 11th to 14th round in a typical draft. And why would you draft Jaret Wright again??? Lows: He's still young, and we can't stress that enough. Surprisingly, he has slightly better numbers away from Comerica Park than he does in it, but we doubt that anomaly will continue much longer. Left-handed hitters have had the better of Bonderman, smacking 2/3 of all HRs he allows, and getting more than a hit per inning against him. He'll have to improve with that, but we fully believe he will. Don't be surprised if he starts off slowly in April and May, as many young pitchers do. But if you don't draft him, you might be able to trade for him on the cheap from a pissed off --- and ignorant --- manager in your league.

2. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals : Highs: Another former first round gem from the MLB draft, this time in 2002. Greinke is only 21 years old and posted a 2004 season of a 3.97 ERA and a WHIP of 1.17. Though many people don't think of it as so, Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City is statistically one of the worst parks for hitters, which will suit Greinke owners (and the Royals themselves) just fine. It's actually one of the lowest ranked parks for homeruns allowed and batting average. (If you're rather dim, then let me help you out here: that's a good thing if you have Greinke on your team.) He was the poor man's Mark Prior with regards to the buzz generated around him in the minors, but he certainly lived up to expectations last season. Lows: He really only had one horrible month in '04, but when we say horrible we mean horrible. In July, he posted an ERA of 6.61 and a WHIP of 1.44. If he can avoid months such as that, then we're talking freakishly good stats for an entire season. He's not going to post many victories with the Royals backing him up, so 10+ wins would be a great outcome, and he's not the biggest strikout pitcher on the planet either, with about 6.8 Ks per 9 innings. Not bad, but not lights out stuff. But he has great command for such a young pitcher, hardly walking anyone, which will work wonders for your WHIP. But as we noted with Bonderman, he's still young, so there's always that risk, but he's being drafted in the 13th to 14th rounds, so he's a very nice risk to take. And why would you draft Jaret Wright again????

3. Brad Penny - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: He turns only 27 years old in May of this season (seems ancient after talking about pre-schoolers Bonderman and Greinke, but 27 is still young for a pitcher), and he started to finally become the pitcher everyone believed he'd be in 2004 before a nerve injury in his elbow sidelined him. For his career, he's posted an ERA of 4.03 with a 1.31 WHIP, but in 2004 he posted a 3.15ERA/1.22WHIP while averaging just shy of 8Ks per 9 innings. Now spending his days in that pitcher's haven of Dodger Stadium, an ERA and WHIP in line with his 2004 numbers are very easily attainable. Lows: He's always had some injury risk in his past, though in his 5 seasons he has two full seasons and the other three seasons he pitched 2/3 of. He'll start the 2005 season on the DL, but with no hiccups occuring in his rehab, he should be back rather quickly, maybe missing only the first couple weeks. He's been impressive in that rehab, so the future looks bright. With him being drafted anywhere from the 14th to 17th rounds in a typical draft, he could be an amazing steal. Draft him and stash him on your bench or DL for a few weeks and reap the rewards.

4. Wade Miller - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Another injured player with huge potential. A career 3.87 ERA/1.31WHIP, Miller averaged 15 wins a season from 2001 through 2003. A fraying of his rotator cuff caused him to call short his 2004 season, but with rehab similar to what Pedro Martinez partook in a couple years ago, Miller's avoided surgery and the Red Sox target him for a May comeback. He's averaged better than 8.5 Ks per 9 innings of work over his career and surprisingly has allowed very few HRs for a power pitcher, only 17 in 187 innings of work in 2003. If he can come back healthy by late May, a season of 12 wins/3.50ERA/1.25WHIP/130+Ks is possible. Considering he's being drafted anywhere from the 17th to not even being drafted in some leagues, that's another huge steal. Draft him and stash him on your DL or bench and look like a genius come September...Lows:...if he can get himself healthy. He's already pitching off a mound in spring training, and as we said above, there haven't been any setbacks, but it's still a tender situation. He'll have to battle Bronson Arroyo (or possibly Tim Wakefield) for the 5th starters spot for the Red Sox, but it looks like the brass on Yawkey Way would rather use Arroyo in the 'pen if Miller can come back healthy, even if Arroyo is lights out early in the season, so as not to wear on Miller's arm. As for stats, he did have to pitch in the popcorn kernal popper known as Minute Maid Field for much of his career, and he did fairly well there, so the transition to Fenway shouldn't be as marked as it is for other pitchers. His WHIP is average at best, mainly due to walks. But considering his stats in the other four major categories, you'll just have to live with it. He's a great value for 17th+ round in your draft.

Deepers:
1. Cliff Lee - Cleveland Indians : Highs: If you ever have a child, a son, and want to amke sure they make good money in their lives, don't make them become some horrible doctor or wretched lawyer --- make them become a left-handed pitcher in baseball. Hell, left-handed relievers can post horrible numbers and pitch for years, making millions of dollars. And left-handed starters are so rare, that the Yankees invested in getting the biggest one out there (Mr. Porn Star Name himself, Randy Johnson), knowing what an advantage it is to have one. Cliff Lee is one. 2004 was not his greatest year ever, only his 3rd year of action. In 2003 he posted 3.61ERA/1.17WHIP numbers, which fell to 5.43ERA/1.50WHIP in 2004. Sometimes you have to fall back before you can step forward again. The high point for Lee? Averaging 9Ks per 9 innings. That, and he plays for one of the hottest young teams that should raise some eyebrows this year. With a lineup including such young long-ballers like Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, Lee can win 15+ games this season. He's still only 26 years old, so he still has time to adapt. Lows: In each successive month in the 2004 season from May on, Lee posted a higher ERA, ending up with a freakish 7.94ERA for September. (He did pitch one game in October, which he pitched well in.) He's still rough around the edges, but the Indians don't have some deep rotation with veteran pitchers which would force Lee out if he struggles again. 2005 might not be the year Lee puts it all together, but it bears watching. It might be. Might. Considering that he's not even being drafted the the vast majority of leagues, just keep an eye on him and snatch him up if he shows he's more in 2003's form. Of course, if you want some cheap Ks, Lee can be your man nonetheless.

2. Nate Robertson - Detroit Tigers : Highs: He's the poor man's Jeremy Bonderman, who himself is a poor man's Rich Harden, so that's why Robertson is a "deeper" instead of a "sleeper." He was once a Florida Marlins pitching prospect (not a bad pedigree), and has only played one full season --- 2004 wih the Tigers. He struck out just shy of 8 batters per 9 innings in '04, and he's only 27 years old. Pitches in Comerica Park (thank you, God) and the Tigers are moving on up in the world --- these aren't your Tigers from a couple years ago (though, not much can be as bad as that team a couple years ago). Lows: The second half of the '04 season was downright horrible for Robertson, with him posting a 5.79ERA and 1.48WHIP, and overall his ERA and WHIP of 4.90/1.40 for the entire season wasn't comforting either. He's rough around the edges, but he still can evolve into a nice pitcher. For example, in his only three starts on turf last season, he was outright scary for opponents, posting a 1.53ERA/1.08WHIP with 19Ks in 17.2 innings. In May and June combined, he posted an ERA of 3.40 and a WHIP of 1.14 and 56 Ks in 70.2 innings. Those show he can string together a solid stretch of dominance, but he can just as easily fall apart. He should go undrafted, but he's another pitcher you want to keep your eye on for '05. It's difficult to assume which Robertson we're going to get, but a season of a low 4.00 ERA/1.35WHIP/165+Ks and 12 to 15 wins is possible.

3. Erik Bedard - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Very highly thought of in the O's farm system, he posted an '04 season of 4.59ERA/1.60WHIP with 121 Ks in 137.1 innings of work --- a little less than 9 Ks per 9 innings. The O's can post a ton of run support for him, which should help him win an extra game or two that he probably wouldn't have. Only 26 years old, he's been lights-out this spring training (but don't value that too much). 2005 could - could - be a solid season for Bedard, another pitcher that should go undrafted in your league. Lows: His WHIP is more frightening than Oprah Winfrey without her makeup, but it really can only go down from where it's been. He walks way too many batters (71 in 137.1 innings), over 5 per 9 innings, but that should improve as he progresses as a pitcher. Keep an eye on him. A season of a low 4.00 ERA/1.40 WHIP/190+ Ks/14 wins is possible. That's not bad for a fill in pitcher, especially for some extra Ks.

Other Qality Options for Starting Pitcher: (let's try to be brief-er about this...we'll try...)
1. Roy Oswalt - Houston Astros : Highs: A career 3.11ERA/1.17WHIP pitcher, Oswalt came off a 2004 season where he finally posted a 20 win season. If not for a groin-pulling-filled 2003, he would've cracked out "studs" column this season. A season of 20+wins/low 3.00ERA/1.20WHIP/200+Ks if healthy is possible. Lows: Astros don't have as solid a team or lineup as 2004, Berkman will miss a month of the season at least, and Bagwell and Biggio aren't getting any younger. And Roy's has to deal with that Minute Maid Park. Poor guy. Oswalt's going to have to win some games on his own, but he has the talent. Expect him to be drafted in the 4th to 6th round. If he falls to the 6th round, don't pass on him. If he's healthy, that's a huge steal.

2. Oliver Perez - Pittburgh Pirates : Highs: Perez was the winner of my annual "Guy-No-One-Was-Paying-Attention-To-In-Spring-Training-Who-Was-One-of-The-Best-In-The-Game-For-The-Season" award. Oh, I don't know...maybe it was the 2.98ERA and 1.15 WHIP in '04. Maybe it was the 239 Ks in 196 innings -- about 12Ks per 9 innings. Maybe it's that he's still 23 years old. I don't know. Lows: Only the Pirates (and the D-Backs) could make a dominant pitcher a near .500 pitcher. His record was only 12-10, through no fault of his own. Don't expect the greatest winning percentage. He also has been experienced some shoulder stiffness this spring, so he might have a rough April to work through some stuff. Plus, he's still so young, he might regress in 2005 before flourishing again. That said, expect a season of a low 3.00ERA/1.20WHIP/240Ks/14 wins, and for him to be drafted in the 6th or 7th round, and if he pitches like he did in '04, well, [inch yourself a few dozen times because you got the steal of the draft.

3. Jake Peavy - San Diego Padres : Highs: Peavy and Perez should do a traveling road show. Both guys are still 23 years old and dazzling hitters. Peavy gets the better team and the better park backing him up, but he has a groin injury that might linger all year in 2005. Posting a 2004 season of 2.27ERA/1.20WHIP with 173 Ks in 166.1 innings -- just over 9Ks per 9 innings --- and winning the ERA title in the NL...yeah, he's another nobody. Lows: Just like Perez, he's still so young that he might regress before he flourishes as well as he did in 2004, and this groin injury worries us. A groin injury screwed around with Oswalt for 2003, ruining a perfectly good season for him. We're not saying Peavy will have the same occur for him, but it reamins a possibility. Keep it in mind. A healthy season of nearly the same season as Perez (with a few less Ks, maybe an extra win or two) is expected, but he's being drafted anywhere from the very late 2nd round to mid 6th. Late 2nd is much too high for a pitcher with one dominate season udner his belt, but if he falls to the late 4th or early 5th, he's a nice pick.

4. Ben Sheets - Milwaukee Brewers : Highs: The 2.70ERA and 0.98WHIP, the 264Ks in 237 innings, the miniscule 32 walks (fewer than one walk per game started), he finally put all his amazing talent together in 2004. Lows: Only the Brewers (and the Pirates and the D-Backs) would make a pitcher like Sheets a sub .500 pitcher. He had a 12-14 record, and might not improve too much on that in 2005. His WHIP and ERA might inch up ever so slightly in '05, but not by any huge standard. He's being drafted anywhere from the mid-2nd to the 5th round. Mid-2nd is much too high when you could draft Schilling or Scmidt for example, picthers with more years of dominance under their belt. But if he falls to the 4th to 5th round, that's when you want to snap Sheets up.

5. Carlos Zambrano - Chicago Cubs : Highs: A 2.75ERA/1.22WHIP in 2004, Zambrano had 188 Ks in 209.2 innings and had 16 wins. The Cubs still have a solid lineup, which means another 16+ wins are possible. He's a career 3.25ERA/1.32WHIP, and he's posted a few solid seasons in a row now, despite that he's only 23 years old. Personally, I'd feel safer drafting Zambrano over Peavy or Perez, even though they posted better numbers than Zambrano, simply because he's proven he can do it over multiple seasons. Lows: There's obviously a pox against Cubs pitchers, and if I'm Zambrano, I'm avoiding all black cats and ladders. Wrigley Field isn't the greatest pitcher's park, especially when the wind blows out, but Zambrano can be so dominant, that that shouldn't be a massive concern for you. A season of 16+ wins/2.80ERA/1.20WHIP/200+Ks is attainable in a healthy season. He's being drafted anywhere from the mid 3rd to mid 5th rounds. I can justify the 3rd round pick, though that is slightly high. If you see he's next to being drafted, you might want to grab him while you can, but if it looks like he can drop another round, take the risk.

6. Tim Hudson - Atlanta Braves : Highs: It feels odd to mention Hudson and Braves in the same sentence, but I'm not complaining. Remember what we wrote about Jaret Wright and Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Now, take away Wright and swap in Hudson. Now feel free to begin to drool and have a dazed smile on your face. A season of 2.90ERA/1.20WHIP/175+Ks and 20 wins in a healthy season is possible. Lows: Hudson somehow has swindled people into thinking he's a massive strikeout pitcher, when he really is just an average K pitcher. In 2004 he only struck out 103 in 188.2 innings --- not dazzling stuff. But he's gone to the NL, and kids, we know that that means --- he gets to face a pitcher 2 to 3 times a game! Woo-hoo! Expect some of the best numbers in Hudson's career in 2005 under Mazzone's watch.

7. Josh Beckett - Florida Marlins : Highs: Besides Mar Prior, there might not be another pitcher with as high a ceiling at Beckett right now. But, unlike Prior, Beckett's healthy right now this spring. He's posted just under 9Ks per 9innings in 2004 and just over 9Ks per 9 innings throughout his career, and his OBA was a miserly .235 last season. The Marlins are stocked for a solid offense in 2005, so a season of 15 wins should be a strong possibility, with a 3.50ERA/1.25WHIP/ and 180+Ks if healthy. Lows: His career high for innings pitched is only 156.2, and that was in '04. Blisters are always an issue with him, but let's keep our fingers crossed that he's got that fixed. He's being drafted in the 7th to 8th round, and if he's healthy he's a huge steal for fantasy players in those rounds.

8. Kerry Wood - Chicago Cubs : Highs: Let's be positive right now, despite some lingering injury questions in spring training right now. Wood is a guy with a career OBA of a freakish .214. He has a career 3.63ERA/1.26WHIP, and betters than 9Ks per 9 innings. The Cubs still have a great lineup, so he can easily crack 15 wins, Lows: Kerry, Kerry, Kerry. Bursitis in the shoulder in this spring training? Sure, he should start the opener, but geez, can any Cubs pitcher stay healthy? (Watch out, Zambrano, you're next.) Wood has never won more than 14 games in a season in his career, despite all the hype around him. He still has a huge ceiling, but every year that passes without that one jaw-dropping season, is another year he drops a little on our chart for best pitchers. Always an injury risk. Expect him to be drafted from the 5th to 7th rounds. If healthy, a 2005 season of 15 wins/3.60ERA/1.20WHIP/200Ks. Great numbers....IF he can be healthy all season.

9. Rich Harden - Oakland A's : Highs: Another 23 year old blossoming at this exact moment, just like Peavy, Zambrano, and Perez. He posted an '04 season of 3.99ERA/1.33WHIP, but he was outright filthy at times. In July and August he posted a 3.25ERA/1.18WHIP, before crumbling in September. Expect more of the July/August and less of September throughout 2005. It also doesn't hurt that he plays in Network Coliseum, with it's 2,000 feet of foul ground to help a pitcher out. Lows: He's being counted on to step up without Hudson and Mulder being around (with Zito supposed to help out as well...hahahaha), and many young pitchers wouldn't be able to handle that stress. The A's also have a horrible lineup (with all due respect to Eric Chavez, especially), but Harden is about to break out --- one of our picks of 2005. Expect conservative estimate for 2005 to be 3.40+ERA/1.25+WHIP/200+Ks/15wins, but expect him to be drafted around the 8th round. Huge value for that round. Great steal, and he might be a hell of a lot better than those numbers, too.

10. Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays : Highs: One mediocre year with injuries and everyone forgets what you once did. For Halladay, that would be a 2002 and 2003 that averaged a 3.09 ERA over those two seasons, and a WHIP of 1.13, 187Ks, and 20+wins. So, 2004 he was injured a bit, and everyone's jumped off the Halladay bandwagon...thanks, I'll take that spot you've opened up. He's healthy and only going to turn 28 years old in May. Thanks, I'll take him. Lows: Well, he doesn play for the Blue Jays, so that means his team faces the Yankees and Red Sox a combined 38 times in 2005, and the Skydome (or whatever the hell they're calling it these days) isn't the friendliest pitcher's park, AND he was injured in 2004. Puh-leaze. He overcame all that in 2002 and 2003, and he's healthy now...can we say that enough? Expect a season of 17 to 19 wins/3.15+ERA/1.15+WHIP/180Ks...and he's being drafted in the 6th and 7th round. He might be one of the biggest steals in 2005.

11. Mark Mulder - St. Louis Cardinals : Highs: He's moved to the NL...NL...NL. Rejoice. His hip seems to be healthy finally (((keeping fingers crossed))), and he's got a lineup behind him in St. Louis that has 7-8-9 hitters that are more vicious than Oakland's 3-4-5 hitters half the time. He still managed 17 wins in 2004, and he has a chance to be a true ace once again in '05. Lows: Oy....Oy, oy, oy. 2004 was as big of a headache season as I've seen in a long while. Pre-all-star break: 3.21ERA/1.19WHIP...post-all-star break: 6.13ERA/1.59WHIP, and only 5 wins in the second half of the season. He was as big a mess as you could have on your hands. Part of that was his hip and other mild injuries lingering upon him, and he seems to have shaken that, but THAT is NOT the way you want to see a pitcher finish a season. (How about that 8.10ERA/2.03WHIP in September?) But he's gone National League on his. Rejoice! Amen! There is a God! He's healthy! If healthy, expect a season of 18+wins/3.45ERA/1.15WHIP/160Ks. He's being drafted in the 4th to 6th rounds. A 4th round pick seems slightly risky based on how he finished 2004, but he can be a top 10 pitcher. If you're a gambling type, go for it. Otherwise, see if he falls to the 6th round to get a better value.

12. Carl Pavano - New York Yankees : Highs: This is the "highs" section, so we'll be high. He's shagged Alyssa Milano, among many other hotties. God bless him. He was a prized free agent in the off-season, and rightfully so. He had only a 3.00ERA and 1.17WHIP with 18 wins in 2004. Now with the Yankee lineup backing him up, what's to stop him from posting 20+ wins? Lows: 4.21ERA/1.34WHIP --- those are his career numbers. Not as great as you'd think, huh? His OBA is actually above-average being .271. Not good. His career win/loss record is 57-58. Hmmm. He only had 139 Ks in 222.1 innings in '04. And he's moving to the AL this year...oh, and it just happens to be under the broiling spotlight of New York City, specifically the Yankees. Now, let's think --- what other small-market pitcher made his debut with the Yankees as a prized free agent in 2004, and had a huge bust of a season? Oh, that'd be none other than Javier Vazquez. Can Pavano buck that trend? Yup. Is he going to be anywhere within 500 miles of posting his 2004 numbers with the Yankees in 2005? We doubt it severely. Expect a season of 4.00ERA/1.25WHIP/120Ks/16wins. He's being drafted anywhere from the 3rd to 9th round --- depending on whether you've got someone in your league drinking the Yankee Kool-Aid. If he falls to the 9th round, he's not a bad pick, but sweet mother, don't draft him in the 3rd round and pass up Zambrano, Hudson, Oswalt, Peavy, Perez, etc.

13. Matt Clement - Boston Red Sox : Highs: He somehow avoided the jinx afflicting Cubs pitchers, and he got out before the bug jinx attacked him. He posted a 2004 season with a 3.68ERA/1.28WHIP with 190Ks in only 181 innings. That's a better than 9K per 9inning mark, which is what you want to see. With the Red Sox lineup behind him, expect him to post a career high in wins, probably 15+. Lows: He has a career win/loss record of only 69-75, including a 9-13 record in 2004, despite his solid ERA and Ks. No wonder he ditched the Cubs. Opponents only batted only .229 against him in 2004, and only .243 in his career, so it's not has if the guy doesn't have some nasty stuff. His biggest fault is that he's a bit wild, over his career walking a batter every other inning almost. But his strikeout numbers can't be ignored. His 3 year average is the follow: a 3.80ERA/1.24WHIP/192Ks/.224 batting average against. He's being drafted anywhere from the 5th to 9th round. the 5th is too high, and 9th is too low. If he's fallen to the 7th round, jump on him, and if he's still hanging around in the 9th round...Jesus, what are you waiting for?

Other Pitchers to Consider:
1. A.J. Burnett - Florida Marlins : Another of the stable of Marlines pitchers who always seems to have some lingering health issue. Posted a 3.30ERA/1.19WHIP in 2002 in a full season, with 203 Ks in 204.1innings. If he's healthy, he's a beast. We're talking 12+wins/3.45ERA/1.15+WHIP/200+Ks, and he should be drafted in the 9th or 10th round...good value.

2. Chris Carpenter - St. Louis Cardinals : Pitched by far his career year for the Cards in 2004, but was always an underachiever with the Blue Jays 2004 was better than expected, but a season of around 3.80ERA/1.18WHIP/150+Ks/13+wins seems about right. He's being drafted around the 11th to 12th round...the farther he falls, the greater value he's offering. But 12th round is great value as is.

3. Greg Maddux - Chicago Cubs : Getting up there in age, and showing some rust the past two seasons, but a lock in 2005 for an ERA around 4.00/1.18WHIP/15wins/130+Ks. A workhorse, a solid pitcher to have as a 4th guy on your staff. Being drafted in the 10th to 12th round. Little risky because of age, but he's a horse, and that's what you want him for.

4. Odalis Perez - Los Angeles Dodgers : Absolutely no run support in 2004, he can't get that little support again, can he? Seems to have great or horrible seasons back and forth. That means he's due for a bad season, but we'll say he bucks the trend. Expect a season of 3.65ERA/1.15WHIP/130Ks/13wins, and he's being drafted in the 12th to 13th round. Good value.

5. John Smoltz - Atlanta Braves : Once a dominant starter in the 1990's, he arm broke down by 2000, missed the entire season, and has been a dominant closer since 2001. No expected to be a starter for 2005, you have to wonder if his arm can hold up. We'll be positive and say he posts a season of 3.65ERA/1.20WHIP/190Ks/15wins. He's being drafted in the 9th to 11th rounds which is risky with his injury past as a starter, but if healthy he's a huge steal

6. Freddy Garcia - Chicago White Sox : Another "No-Respect" guy. He's got a smooth delivery, so he's another rock for 200+ innings on your staff (don't undervalue that...it can be as valuable and pay off as much as any official fantasy stat). Had 3.81ERA/1.22WHIP with 184Ks in 2004. White Sox have a solid team to win some games, so expect about the same this year. He's being drafted in the 11th to 13th rounds...which is an undervalue, especially with his upside. Draft him and be happy.

7. Mark Buehrle - Chicago White Sox : It looked like he had a broken fook, but apparently he's just a sensitive guy. Awww. But he's a career 3.76ERA/1.24WHIP pitcher who had a similar season in 2004 with 165 Ks. He's been a sure thing for 200+ innings, like his teammate Garcia. His draft value might fall to the mid-teen rounds on injury fears, but grab him and take the solid numbers. The guy's never been on the DL in his career.

8. Brad Radke - Minnesota Twins : Posted a career year in 2004 (just happened to be a contract year, so no doubt it was a coincidence, right?), but he's still great to have on your staff for his WHIP/and 12+wins. 8 of the last 9 seasons he's pitched 200+ innings. Figure a season of 3.90ERA/1.18WHIP/140Ks/13wins. He's being drafted in the 12th to 13th rounds. Nice pick.

9. C.C. Sabathia - Cleveland Indians : Still hasn't put all his talent together (move away from the buffet table, C.C.), and he has a strained oblique muscle right now that might force him to miss the first couple weeks - he's on the DL now. But he's still only 24 years old, and has amazing talent if he'djust put it together. (stop...eating...C.C.) Cleveland's hot this season, so figure a year of 3.80ERA/1.30WHIP/150Ks/15 wins in a solid season - less if he remains on the DL long. (We're hoping not.) He's being drafted around the 13th round, and is a gamble to some extent, but a good gamble.

10. Livan Hernandez - Washington Nationals : 200+ innings for the past 5 seasons, and has had two solid seasons back-to-back. We're still Doubting Thomas' here, but let's be optimists. Let's give him a season of 4.10ERA/1.35ERA/12wins/180Ks. He's being drafted around the 14th round.

11. Kelvim Escobar - Los Angeles Angels : Another guy who has played under his talent level for years, but posted a solid 2004 season with a 3.93ERA/1.29WHIP/191Ks. Angels still have a good team, so a 15 win season can be had in Escobar if he can turn the corner. Espect a season of 4.00ERA/1.25WHIP/180+Ks/15wins. He's being drafted in the 11th to 13th round, which can be a little risky, but can be worth it.

12. Bronson Arroyo - Boston Red Sox : Finally had his first full season as a starter in 2004, posting a 4.03ERA/1.22WHIP/142Ks/10 wins. He might lose his starting spot to Wade Miller when Miller comes back for the Sox, but if he keeps the job, he should have another season very similar to 2004, with more wins. He's being drafted in the 15th to 17th round, which is fantastic value.

13. David Wells - Boston Red Sox : Fat and old, and still not slowing down. Posted a 2004 season of 3.73ERA/1.14WHIP. Should still post a similar season, and isn't someone to cower over playing in the Boston spotlight (those years with the Yankees were no problem.) Not a strikeout guy, but doesn't even average a walk a start. Draft him for wins/ERA/WHIP. He's being drafted anywhere from the 14th to 18th round. If taken in 18th round, that's great value.

Others to Consider Drafting as Late Fill-ins:
RandyWolf...Dontrelle Willis...Al Leiter...Kevin Brown...Matt Morris...Ted Lilly...Andy Pettitte...Bartolo Colon...Jake Westbrook...Joel Pineiro (though he's struggling...but he has the talent)...Jon Lieber...Brandon Webb...Dough Davis...Jeff Suppan...Brian Lawrence...Adam Eaton...Tom Glavine...Jason Marquis...Mike Hampton...Jerome Williams...Noah Lowry...Orlando Hernandez...Horacio Ramirez...Tomo Ohka...

Fantasy Sleepers, Deepers, Studs and Duds for the Outfield...

2005-03-14T10:28:00.000-05:00

If your league is just your typical, run-of-the-mill league, you'll have three general outfield spots to fill. In theory, you could fill those three spots with three left fielders, such as Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, and Hideki Matsui. If you're in some leagues, you'll have to pick a player based upon his position - so one right, left, and center fielder each. Of course, that makes it all a bit more complicated for the drafter. For simplicity's sake, we'll just cover all outfielders in general with the analysis, and at the end I'll rank my top 10 for each outfield position in brief.

Studs:
1. Vladimir Guerrero - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: They don't get much more productive than Vlad, and he's a nice guy to boot. A career .325 hitter, he's batted above that career average for the past three seasons. The last seven seasons he's averaged 37 HRs. If you discount his injured 2003 season where he only hit 25 HRs, his average bumps up to just shy of 40 HRs per year. If you discount his injured 2003 season, his RBI average since 1998 is 118. Including his injured 2003 season, he still averages 112 RBI. He once was a threat for 40 steals a season until his back injuries flared up, but in '04 --- while still feeling the effects of the back problems --- he stole 15 bases. The Angels are a steal-happy team, so if Vlad's back can clear up, it's easily possible that he'll approach 30 steals again. A season of .330+/40+HRs/120+RBI/20+steals/110+runs is easily attainable. Lows: The biggest - and really only - low for Vlad is is back. If it flares up, he can be sidelined for weeks at a time. Anyone who has had back problems can appreciate the pain he'd have to play with. That said, he played through some bouts of pain in 2004 to post an MVP season. It doesn't matter the park or the state of the lineup he plays in, since he played years with the Expos and posted obscene numbers there as well. Unlike Barry Bonds, the only juice Vlad is on is Tropicana. He's a top 5 pick in almost any style of draft, and his back should be fine. A simple, easy choice to make.

2. Carlos Beltran - New York Mets : Highs: Will turn only 28 years old in late April, and entered his prime practically the moment he stepped on the field. His career average is a bit lower than Vlad's, averaging only .284. That can mainly be attributed to two things Vlad has over Beltran in hitting: Vlad doesn't strikeout as much, and Vlad's a bad ball hitter. But Beltran has played in some horrible lineups with the Royals, and when he finally got the chance to play in a packed lineup with the Astros in the playoff run last year, he was a freak - albeit, it average was slacking a bit. Now off to the hot spotlight that is New York City, Beltran shouldn't suffer too badly. The Mets still don't have the greatest lineup, and Shea Stadium can slay a mediocre hitter --- but Beltran isn't that. A season of .280+/30+HRs/105+RBI/35+steals/100+runs should be a sure thing as long as he's healthy. Lows: Some "experts" are afraid that Beltran will be tamed by Shea stadium, or that the recent jinx of newly acquired Mets players stinking up the joint will continue with him. Beltran's too much a talent of falter. He's averaged over 100 RBI 5 out of the last 6 seasons (the one season he didn't was when he had some injuries back in 2000), and he's averaged just over 29 HRs a season the last four years. That's not to mention the average of over 37 steals the past four seasons as well. These "experts" are selling Beltran short. A top five pick in a typical draft --- I'd take Vlad over Beltran just because in 4 of the 5 categories Vlad's a slight improvement over Beltran.

3. Manny Ramirez - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Let's just say this: Manny's not stealing many bases for you. Forget that fact, and then look at the rest of his numbers, and then you'll realize why you'll never have to worry about Manny's numbers while he's playing for you. A career .316 hitter, he's bettered that average in 4 of the last 6 seasons. The past 10 seasons (repeat: 10 seasons), he's averaged 120 RBI and 37 HRs. The last time he had fewer than 100 RBI was in 1997 --- that's including 2002 and 2000 when he has some injuries --- and still had over 100 RBI. That's what you call steady. He's a right handed hitter playing at Fenway (think: short porch in left), but he's one of a very few in baseball who can hit with power to all fields. He's playing in the best lineup in baseball that's set records for the past two seasons, and will possibly have David Ortiz hitting behind him in the order. Not a bad set-up to have. Lows: Ummm....hmmm....he doesn't steal bases? Unlike Vlad, he doesn't have any lingering question about an injury. Unlike Beltran, he's not moving into a new pressure cooker of a playing situation (he's already there playing in Boston). He's just good. He's still only 32, too! Unless he suffers some mid-season injury (knock on wood that it doesn't happen), he's as sure a thing as you get in baseball. A past batting champion as well. You can't lose. And he's a late first round draft pick...not bad either.

4. Barry Bonds - San Francisco Giants : Highs: I'm going to say this first, so you know my feelings: I believe Barry's a juice-head. All the facts point to it. People can say, "Steroids don't give you hand/eye coordination" --- but steroids do allow you to have higher muscle fiber reaction time. Why do you think Olympic sprinters use them? By having a higher muscle fiber reaction time, you can wait those precious few fractions of a second on a pitch, which allows you that precious time to see if it's a fastball or a changeup of a pitch, and that allows you time to select your pitch --- which in turn allows you to post some fine batting average numbers. Over Bonds' first 10 seasons in baseball, he averaged a .281 batting average. That includes some very good and some not-so-good seasons of average. But, since Barry's blown up in size, say, the past 5 seasons (when your average player should be declining because of age), he's averaged a .341 average. Coincidence? His first ten seasons he averaged 29 HRs and 84 RBI. His last five seasons he's averaged 52 HRs and 109 RBI. Pure coincidence, I'm sure. All hitters in their very late 30s and early 40s suddenly break out, right?..........That said, if Barry can somehow keep pulling this off, you've just seen his last 5 season averages for HRs/RBI/avg. They're obscene. If you're in a league that counts walks and OBP, draft Bonds and you'll win those two categories hands down, as managers around baseball make a mockery of the game by walking Bonds in the first inning with no one on base. Lows: He does turn 41 years old after the all-star break this year. I don't know when his deal with the devil expires, but by drafting him at 41, you're taking a risk based solely upon age. He's coming off knee surgery, and he's still building up strength in it this spring training. And if you think he hasn't found a new steroid to get around baseball's weak testing policy, then you have to figure his numbers will drop. Bonds is a classic high rish/high reward player. He can pay huge dividends or he can hurt your team if he becomes injured. Are you a gambler? Do you listen to Kenny Rogers theme song while you're drafting? If you are, then expect Bonds to be drafted very late 1st/very early 2nd round.

5. Bobby Abreu - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: A career .305 hitter, he's hit right around that within 5 points the past three seasons. 3 of the past 4 seasons he's had over 100RBI and 30 or more steals - including a career high of 40 steals in '04. The past five seasons he's averaged 25 HRs. He plays in a fine hitter's park with some nice bats around him in the lineup, and he's only just celebrated his 31st birthday. He was a bit of a late bloomer with his power numbers, but always had the average. Lows: Some "experts" wonder if the 40 steals were an anomaly to some extent. But he did steal 36 bases in 2001 and 31 in 2002, so it's not as if it was a freak year. Do I believe he's a sure thing for 40+ steals again in '05? No. But I also never thought Halle Berry would win an Oscar in my lifetime. But Ms. Berry was capable of pulling it off, and so is Abreu once again. He hasn't had many injury issues to speak of whatsoever in his career, so he's a safe bet to remain healthy (but there's s first time for everything). A season of .300+/25HRs/100+RBI/30 steals is a definite possibility. He's a late 1st round pick most likely in many leagues, and that's a fine value.

6. Gary Sheffield - New York Yankees : Highs: 7 times in his career he's had over 100 or more RBI, including 5 of the last 6 seasons - averaging 108 RBI for those 6 seasons - while averaging 35.5 HRs a season over those 6 years. A career .298 hitter, he's playing in the homerun happy Yankees lineup, and should post another solid season. If he gives you 10+ steals, that's just a bonus. Lows: His steals (which used to be good for 15 or so a year) dropped to 5 last year - while also getting caught 6 time last year. Maybe his days of giving you a few steals are over. He is 36 years old, so it happens. His career is spotted with injuries every couple of seasons, but he has been healthy the past two seasons, having his last DL stint in 2002. His shoulder slowed him down toward the end of '04, but he played through some amazing pain to play out the season. He's already had some shoulder stiffness and hip issues this spring, but he has shown to be able to play through it. A slight injury risk comes with drafting him. But a season of .295/35HRs/120RBI/110+runs is easily attainable. He should be drafted around the 3rd round, and if healthy, he offers solid value.

7. Jim Edmonds - St Louis Cardinals : Highs: Some "experts" would disagree with me over Edmonds be classified as a "stud" --- but let's look at the numbers, shall we? Since joining the Cardinals 5 seasons ago, he's averaged over 36 HRs a season, including 42 in '04. During those same five seasons he's averaged a .297 average, 98 RBIs and 102 runs. And if your league includes slugging pct. as a stat, then Edmonds postd his highest season average in that in 2004, with a .643 average. The Cards still have one of the best lineups in the NL, and still play in a solid park for hitters - especially for hitters with such a violent upper cut swing like Edmonds. Lows: His time with the Angels in the 1990's was marred with injuries, but his time with the Cards has remained relatively injury-free, except for a short issue in 2003. He plays all out all the time, so the risk of him banging up a rib or hip diving for a ball that he really shouldn't be diving for is always a possibility. And being 35 years old, those nicks and bruises are going to add up if he keeps it up. A season of .300/35HRs/100RBI/100runs should be Edmonds' '05 if he's healthy. A 5th round draft pick would be about typical for where he should be taken. Very nice value for that round.

Duds:
1. Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves : Highs: He's stopped playing in the outfield! Rejoice! The miserable days of Chipper playing the outfield and injuring himself are over! Hallelujah! There is a God! Lows: Besides the low point that is Chipper's haircut (what's up with the no sideburns of any length, man?), 2004 was not kind to the Chipster. A career low batting average of .248, to go along with the lowest OBP and OPS since 1995, and the lowest slugging pct. since 1997. He also posted his lowest runs and doubles totals ever, and had his lowest RBI total since 1995. Admittedly, he missed a few games due to injury, so that can affect the overall totals for HRs/RBIs/doubles/etc., but that doesn't excuse hit batting, slugging, and on-base averages. He also had 16 more strikeouts in 2004 in 16 fewer games than in 2003. That's a stat of someone struggling. If it wasn't for a scorching August in '04, his season would have even looked more grim. He holds more value now that he's back at third base, but he needs to prove he still can be the Chipper of old before he's back in the good graces of this fantasy player. He's being drafted in the 5th to 7th round, which seems much too high for someone who posted such a year as he did. A season of .285+/28HRs/90+RBI is attainable if he's healthy. He can be better, no doubt, but for 5th round value, you should be expecting better.

2. Sammy Sosa - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Well, he's out of Chicago, which was a strained relationship at the end to say the least. (The very least.) He's in a lineup with Baltimore that can put runs up on a team in a hurry, and he gets to swing for the not-so-distant fences at Camden Yards for 81 games in 2005. Lows: Someone go to the liquor store and buy this man some wine so he can steal the cork. Stick some 'roids back in his ass. He needs it. His homerun, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS, runs, walks, and hits have all declined for three straight seasons. (Please feel free to re-read that last sentence to count how many categories he's dipped in.) He's 36 years old, and being a Dominican, some have wondered and whispered for years that he's possibly a year or two older. Everyone and their mother believes he took steroids, and if baseball's serious (hahahaha) about catching people taking the juice, then he might have even lost that edge, if he hasn't lost it already. He's being taken anywhere from the 7th to 10th round, but I don't know that I can recommend him beyond using him as a backup outfielder for your team, and definitely not in the 7th round. A season of .250/25+/85+RBI is attainable if he's healthy. MAYBE.

3. Steve Finley - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Woo! Everyone jump onto the Steve Finley bandwagon! Just don't run me over, because I'm not getting on it. He hit a career high in HRs in 2004, 36 of them. Wow! You can't get that just anywhere! Lows: Let's see, everyone's so high on Finley because....umm....why? Here's a guy who just turned 40 years old. (Strike one.) He's only had 100 RBI once in his career, and that was back in 1999. (Strike two.) He's changing leagues for the first time since 1990. (Strike three.) Three of the six months of the 2004 season he batted .225, .184, .195. (Strike four.)His career average against lefties is over 30 points lower than against righties. (Strike five.) And did I mention he's just turned 40 years old? Hey, if you want to jump on the Steve Finley bandwagon, I'm sure there's space. That's great, enjoy it. But don't be shocked if he either: A.) gets injured --- B.) has a steep decline in numbers --- or C.) spends half the season batting below the Mendoza line. He'll be drafted around the 10th to 15th round, but I say look elsewhere for a younger hitter on the rise instead of an older hitter who's on the decline, no matter what his HRs say. HRs are always the last thing to go.

4. Ken Griffer Jr. - Cincinnati Reds : Highs: Um, well, how far does your memory go back to? Because Junior hasn't played a full season since 2000. Since then he's hit 63 homers...which is a good thing if he did that in one season. But four seasons? Oh, wait, this is the "high" section, so I'm supposed to be saying what's good about him. Umm...give me a second here...there's got to be something...well, he started off on a tear in 2004 by hitting 20 HRs for about the first half of the season. That's good right? Lows: So, of course, he went ahead and snapped off his hamstring after that. Way to go, Junior! That'll show everyone you aren't an injury risk! Listen, Junior isn't so "junior" anymore. Gone are the days of the "kid" --- because he's 35 years old now. The last 7 seasons his batting average has been below his career average. He's averaged just shy of 16 homers the past four seasons because of those injuries. He's a mess. Let's face it. He's being drafted around the 13th+ round, but that's still too risky a time to take him. Why people are drafting Junior ahead of Lance Berkman (while injured, he has at least put up some numbers the past few seasons) or Justin Morneau (who should be damn good in '05) is beyond me. Can Junior put together a healthy season? Sure. And Paris Hilton can keep her legs closed, too. But it doesn't happen often, does it? It's not even worth it to predict his numbers for 2005 because you can't be certain he'll play more than a couple months. But if you've got a few drinks in you and are pining for the mid 1990's, go ahead and draft Griffey. Otherwise, stay away.

5. Luis Gonzalez - Arizona Diamondbacks : Highs: Once hit 57 HRs in 2001, and had five straight seasons from 1999 through 2003 of 100+RBI. A career .286 hitter. And, uh, yeah, that's about it. Lows: Gonzo's a nice enough guy, so it hurts for us to call him a "dud," but he is. Let's look at Gonzo's HR totals from 1997, his lone year with the Astros: 10, 23, 26, 31, 57, 28, 26, 17. If we drew you a line graph, you'd see a slight resemblence to Mount Everest there, with his 57 HRs being the peak, and two steady slopes on either side of it. But then you say, "Well, yeah, sure, but you just said he had 5 straight seasons of 100+ RBI ending in 2003. That's not so bad, right?" Right. But, let us see why else he's a dud: he plays for the Diamondbacks, one of the worst scoring teams in baseball in 2004. It's almost comical to a certain extent at how inept they were at scoring. When a team can make Randy Johnson have an almost .500 record through almost no fault of Johnson's own, then you know they can't score runs. Other than adding Troy Glaus (hello, disabled list!), the offense still lacks much of a punch. Gonzo's also 37 years old --- 38 before the season's over. Oh, and his elbow was worked on last year, ending his season short. People in the D-Backs front office are holding his breath that he doesn't snap his arm off. It's just not worth it. There are better options available, younger options, options without an elbow ready to be flung into the infield when you make a play at the plate. Skip Gonzo. Nice guy, but skip him. Let him be someone else's headache.

Sleepers:
1. Aaron Rowand - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Coming off just his first real full season,(Played 126 games in 2002, but only had 302 ABs), and only 27 years old. In 487 ABs in 2004, he hit .310/24HRs/69RBI/94runs/17steals. Given the extra playing time with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee gone, he should have a solid chance to flourish. And with word coming out of the White Sox camp that the Sox are looking to runs the bases wild in 2005, he might creep up even higher the steals category. Lows: Doesn't help to see Maggs and Lee leave, even if it opens up some extra playing time. Those bats would have helped protect him, but now it comes down to Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynzski with Rowand taking over. That might lead to some hiccups at times. He's also a relative late bloomer, having not really broken out until 26 years old. But his talent level is very high. Versus lefties or rights --- day or night ---home or away --- he averaged a better than .300 BA in all categories in '04. It also doesn't hurt that he hit 38 doubles in that time as well. And ended up the season hotter than he started, which is always what you want to see. A season of .305/25+HRs/95+RBI/25 steals is easily attainable, and is a nice steal with him being drafted in the 10th to 13th rounds.

2. Preston Wilson - Colorado Rockies : Highs: From 1999 through 2003 he averaged 28 HRs, and had a career year (as they always do) in 2003 in his first season with the Rockies. People are already forgetting that in '03 Wilson had 36HRs/141RBI/.282 avg/43 doubles/94 runs. 2004 was a wasted year with 202 injury-filled ABs. Rehabbing and strengthening his knee in camp this spring, if his knee can remain healthy - and he can avoid other injuries - he can post a season of .270+/30HRs/100+RBI in 2005. Lows: He's the poor man's Ken Griffer Jr. these days, and he wasn't the sweetest swinging hitter with the Marlins before he got to the Rockies. He showed signs of brilliance with the Fish, even posting a 30/30 season in 2000. But everyone becomes a new hitter with the Rockies - just look at Vinny Castilla. (Check out the numbers in the third baseman category below for Castilla.) But he is an injury risk, as 2004 was not the first time he's faced injury. But he can be had in the mid-to-late teen rounds in your draft, and by that point you might be taking risks on a player anyway. The longer he sits on your draft board, the nicer a pick he becomes.

3. Garret Anderson - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Might seem odd to include him as a "sleeper," but after an injury filled season, people are forgetting what Anderson put up for years before. (Of course, the laid back way Anderson plays might put you to sleep, so it fits in nicely with this category.) In the four seasons before 2004, Anderson averaged 30HRs and 120 RBI, with 46 doubles and a .299 average (which also happens to be his career batting average as well.) So why are people forgetting about him? It's one thing if a guy just sucks up the joint (hey, Sosa!), but it's another thing if there was a serious injury issue at hand to limit the player. Lows: The guy was a machine to play 155+ games a year for his career until 2004, when an arthritic back condition flared up and threw him into a tailspin. But he finished the season fairly strongly, and he's on medications to limit the arthritis --- so why are people forgetting him anywhere from the 10th to 15th rounds? And somehow Chipper Jones is a hot commodity, and Garret Anderson isn't? How is this? Even with his bad back, Garret still hit .301 in 2004. Makes no sense whatsoever why people dismiss him so late. But if he's going to fall that far in your draft, feel free to snatch him up a round or two earlier and get yourself a steal. A season of .305/25HRs/100RBI/100 runs with a healthy year seems assured.

Deepers:
1. Craig Monroe - Detroit Tigers : Highs: He's played 3/4 of each of the past two seasons, posting 23HRs/70RBI and 18HRs/72 RBI in each of the past two seasons. His doubles, average, and hits all improved with him playing in the same amount of games (128) from 2003 to 2004, while his strikeouts decreased. He's 28 years old, and has a strong chance to flouish with the Tigers. Lows: He's struggling to get the full-time position in center field, as apparently manager Alan Trammel isn't sold on him yet. (Jesus, Trammel, get your head out of your...sorry.) And playing in Comerica Park, no matter how far they move the fences in, is still a tough park to play in. That park alone easily will knock off 5 homers from his year end total. But keep an eye on him if he gets the full-time job. He's got potential, and he'll probably go underdrafted in most leagues. He can be a cheap, though very good contributer to your team.

2. Wily Mo Pena & Austin Kearns - Cincinnati Reds : Highs: They really could be considered "sleepers" instead of "deepers," but considering their pasts and how they're set up in Cincy, they fall a little to "deepers" level. Wily Mo just turned 23, and Kearns will be turning 25 in May. Kearns has been hanging around Junior too much in the Cincy outfield, catching the voodoo spells that someone's playing on Griffey. But let's look at the bright side: in only 292 at-bats in 2003 he hit 15HRs and had 58 RBI. Minus the steals, he's the rich man's Adam Dunn. How so? Because he can have a higher batting average than Dunn, while still walking and striking out a massive amount, while also hammering the ball. As forWily Mo (he of the Jimy Williams disease --- that in which you're missing a needed letter for your first name, in this case an "L" for Wily), in 336 at-bats in 2004, he smacked 26 HRs and drove in 66. He doesn't walk nearly as much as Dunn or Kearns, yet he also enjoys the novelty of striking out his fair share. But he's a masher as well...and did I mention he just turned 23? Lows: It's a crowded situation in the Reds outfield, but the way everyone's falling off from injury, there's no doubt someone will get some playing time. Just who? And who will become injured? If I'm a fantasy player, I'm crossing my fingers that Griffey bites it again so Austin and Wily Mo can play full-time. Assuming, of course, they can stay healthy as well. (Catch the drift here? Lotso injuries to be had with the Cincy boys.) As with Griffey, it's almost worthless to try and wager their stats for '05, because of playing time and injury issues. If they get the time to play, they both can be massive, cheap picks. In the case of Kearns, he's coming off the board around the 12th to 14th rounds, while Wily Mo (probably the odd man out in the Cincy OF), probably won't go drafted in most leagues. But don't forget him. It won't be the last you've heard of Mr. Mo.

Other Quality Options in the Outfield:
1. Carl Crawford - Tampa Bay Devil Rays /// Juan Pierre - Florida Marlins : Highs: It's the battle of the fleet-footed Floridians who play center field. (Say that 10 times fast.) Let's start with Crawford: his stock rose faster last year than tech stocks in the 1990's, mainly because the dreaded "sophmore slump" avoided him and hit his teammate Rocco Baldelli. The 23 year old hit .296/11HRs/55RBI with 104 runs and 59 steals. That's where his value comes: steals and runs, with a solid average. He's about an 80% base stealer, which is good to see. You don't want to see a base stealer dip below 75%, or especially 70%. It becomes counter-productive then. Those 59 steals in '04 was up from 55 in '03. He's the best of the best at stealing bases, and there's no stopping him from cracking 60 easily if he wants to. As for Pierre: He's a little older, coming in at 27. In 2004, he posted .326/3HRs/49RBI with 100 runs and 45 steals. That was down from 65 steals in 2003. That said, they're a bit clone-like, don't you think? Crawford is the bigger fish in the draft market for a few reasons, those being age, some power, lack of minor injuries that Pierre attracts, and a better pct. at stealing bases. He's also more likely to lead the majors in steals at the end of the season. That's why Crawford is a border-line 1st round pick, but more likely an early 2nd round pick, while Pierre can be had in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Pierre has a stronger lineup around him, but Crawford is more apt to hit a few extra HRs and steal some more bases --- so what's your preference? Lows: For Pierre, the biggest concern has to be the percentage of times he was caught stealing in 2004. He was barely a 65% base stealer, which is not what you want to see. He needs to improve upon that in '05. Another issue is having Luis Castillo with him in that Marlins lineup, possibly forcing Pierre not to steal as often as he could. While he hasn't missed any time the past two years to injury, he's always complaining about this boo-boo or that. He's already complaining about a stiff leg in spring training this season. It shouldn't be anything to worry about, but it's something to be aware of. And he has 7 career HRs, three of which came in '04. Be ecstatic if he jacks 4 in '05. It's a glarinf weakness with Pierre, but you draft him for steals/runs/ave --- not his power. As for Crawford, he still is awfully young. He's still at that age where players can regress a little before they bounce back. Should he? Doubtful, but it remains a possibility. He also plays in a much weaker lineup with the D-Rays than Pierre has around him with the Marlins. That can affect his run totals, and limits any few RBI totals he'll get. He has more pop in his bat than Pierre, so he can be good for at least 10+ HRs, which might not sound like much, but that might be 10 more than Pierre hits. Expect a season for Pierre of .310+/2HRs/45RBI/110runs/45+steals, and as for Crawford - expect a season of .295/10HRs/58RBI/100 runs/60+steals. Side note: If you want the poor man's Pierre or Crawford, there is Scott Podsednik. His value is rising as the off-season and spring training rolls on. He plays in a lineup in flux with the White Sox, and he's coming off a season where he stole 70 bases, but batted a horrible .244, with 12 HRs and a measly 39 RBI. (If Pierre is driving in more runs than you, you know you're not a huge power threat.) But the Sox are committed to run the bases wild in '05, so despite his average, you still can score some quick points in the steals category by having him on your squad. A season of .260/8HRs/45RBI/90 runs/60+steals is an easy possibility.

2. Miguel Cabrera - Florida Marlins : Highs: The 2003 playoffs put Cabrera on the map, as he smacked around some quality pitching throughout the Marlins run to a title. In 2004, his pre-season value was somewhere between sleeper and obscene as people were worried he'd bust, yet others were hugely high on his eligibility at multiple positions, especially 3B. This season, he's available in only the OF. Oh, well. We can't have everything, I guess. In 2004, he was only great, that's all. Batting .294, with 33HRs, 112 RBI, 101 runs, and even a soild OBP to boot. Oh, and he's going to turn 22 right after the season starts. (Go ahead, re-read that. Yup, he's still 21 years old when the season begins.) And the Marlins should be humming this season with Pierre, Delgado, Mike Lowell, and even Luis Castillo and Alex Gonzalez in the mix. Delgado should be a strong influence on Cabrera maintaining his momentum in 2005, and every young hitter could use that help to maintain their hitting. Lows: He's a little weak against lefties, batting only .262 vs. .302 against righties. He also slacked up a bit in September of last year, batting only .229 in the stretch run. Part of that can be due to fatigue at playing a full schedule for the first time in his major league career. Otherwise, the guy's a gem in the making. Expect him to go anywhere from the late 2nd to early 3rd round in your draft, and expect a season of .300/35HRs/120RBI/110 runs.

3. Ichiro Suzuki - Seattle Mariners : Highs: Oh, no! I included Ichiro's last name (or first name, or last name - twice removed, or...), which seems like a crime to do these days the way "experts" don't bother using it. People are forgetting his full name, for crying out loud. Well, Mr. Suzuki had another typical Mr. Suzuki year, batting a career high .372 with 8 HRs, 60 RBI, 101 runs, and 36 steals. That was with an aging, lackluster, injured Seattle lineup around him all year, and a horrible team going nowhere. Imagine how it looks now when Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre move into your neighborgood? Mr. Suzuki might have even offered a hearty chuckle beyond his typical slightly amused facial expression when he learned he got those two bast batting behind him. But by this stage of knowing Mr. Suzuki, it's almost a sure thing how to assume what his season will be: he'll play 157+ games because he keeps himself in freakish shape. (Hey, Bonds, try having Ichiro's trainer for once - a trainer who isn't offering his clients "fish oil" to rub on their bodies.) He'll bat about .330 and smack around 8+HRs. He'll have 60 RBI and will get 110+runs. And since it doesn't seem like he's interested in stealing 56 bases as he did in his "rookie" season, he'll still go for about 35+ bases. Not bad. Lows: Mr. Suzuki was barely a 75% base stealer in 2004. That's about in tune with his career average, but if you want a better guy in that department, go for Crawford over Mr. Suzuki. He's not the biggest HR threat in the world, though he has the ability to hit 20+HRs if he cared to lose a bit on his average. But he prefers his average be higher, and I agree. Other than that...the guy's good, what can you say? I wish more Americans played baseball like Mr. Suzuki does. He's an early 2nd round draft pick in most leagues. Draft him and enjoy.

4. Johnny Damon - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Posted career highs in HRs and RBI in 2004 (though just barely, with 20HRs and 94RBI), and had an overall well balanced season, with 123 runs, 19 steals, and a .304 average. Some doubt he'll even come close to his 20 HRs and 94 RBI, but as we noted earlier, those weren't career highs that were off-the-charts for him. His previous career high for HRs was 18, and his previous career high for RBI was 88. So, see, not bad then, huh? He didn't even post career highs in steals, average, or runs, so I don't see the brouhaha over Damon having a career season. It appears that it was just an overall good season for him. So, what to make of it? Well, he'll now have Edgar Renteria batting behind him (nice), as well as old standbys David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez as usual (really nice). As we've said elsewhere, it's still the Red Sox lineup that's broken records for 2 seasons in a row. This is the same lineup that broke the "Murderer's Row" 1927 Yankee lineup's slugging percentage, and set records for extra base hits. And Damon's leading it off. Lows: Damn you, Theo Epstein! You and your sabremetrics and the desire not to run! Well, Jesus hasn't been stealing as many bases of late, stealing only 19 in 2004 (and having only a 70% steal pct.). But with Renteria in the fold, some believe Damon might be asked to try an extra swipe every now and then, which all us fantasy players will appreciate. He's mildly better against righties than lefties, but still hit almost at a .280 clip against lefties in '04. He's a much better hitter at Fenway - as many Red Sox are - batting .330 versus .280 on the road. But...wait...what's this? This is Jesus' contract year? Hey, now, we know how that usually turns out, right? Unless you're an uptight player (ie: Derek Lowe in '04), you usually have a career year in your contract year (ie: Adrian Beltre in '04). Expect a season of .290+/18HRs/90+RBI/25 steals/120runs, and expect him to be drafted in the 5th to 6th round. Solid value for where he's taken, and if he steals 30+ bases, he's a great value.

5. Hideki Matsui - New York Yankees : Highs: If there's any confusion left from last year, the good Matsui plays for the New York Yankees --- not the Mets. Let's not have any more tragic confusions by anyone high on Jim Beam and meth and trying to draft their fantasy teams. At times, poor Hideki gets overshadowed by Arod, Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Sheffield, Giambi, and whoever the Yankees buy to be their newest starting pitcher. But look at the numbers for 2004: .298/31HRs/108RBI/109 runs with 34 doubles and an OBP of .390. In his two first seasons in the major leagues, he's never missed a game. Some worried that Hideki's power numbers were a little lower than expected coming over from the Japanese league, with him only hitting 16 HRs in 2003. But unlike Mr. Suzuki, Hideki's a power hitter --- and that takes time to adjust, something we saw in 2004. With that extra year under his belt, playing in a power-laden Yankee lineup, and having a short porch in left field in Yankee stadium, there's no reason to worry about him struggling to duplicate or improve his 2004 numbers. Lows: His average against lefties is nearly 50 points lower than against righties, a .265 to .314 comparison. If he were to somehow struggle even more in '05 with that, it could lead to Joe Torre pinch-hitting for Hideki late in games. But we're not there yet, and even then it'll only marginally effect him. Pre or post all-star, he's equally consistent, which is always a plus. A season of .305/30+HRs/110RBI/110runs seems more than likely. He's be drafted anywhere from the 5th to the 10th round. If he drops anywhere beyond the 6th round, he becomes a fine, fine steal.

6. Carlos Lee - Milwaukee Brewers : Highs: Poor Carlos, he's the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball. He can't get no respect. (Except he doesn't have the crazy eyes that Dangerfield had, and not nearly as funny. Least not from what we hear.) He's averaged 25 HRs every season he's played, and 31 HRs the past two seasons. Those past two seasons he's averaged 106 RBI and had a .298 average. But the White Sox ship him away to the Brewers, and worst - fantasy players who should be coked up on stats are forgetting Lee. Sometimes he's falling beyond the 11th round in a fantasy draft --- which is mildly insane. Expect him to be drafted between the 7th and 11th round. Lows: He didn't live up to his potential in his very first years in baseball, which burned some. Many expected 2004-type seasons from day one in his career. Besides that, Lee hasn't done much to be worthy of the idea that he's a bust. Against rights or lefties, day or night games, grass or turf, indoors or out, pre or post all-star break --- he's been consistent. He was smacked in his wrist by a pitch this spring training, but X-rays have been negative. He should be fine for posting a season of .290+/30+HRs/100RBI/95+runs/10+steals.

7. Moises Alou - San Francisco Giants : Highs: Coming off one of his best seasons as a 38 year old, Alou's taken his services to be with his dear old dad in San Fran. 2004 brought a career high in HRs (39) and runs (106), and still impressive numbers for RBI (106) and average (.293). He looked to be on the downswing of his career before 2004, but contract years will help you perform a little more consistently, huh? He's a career .300 hitter with 5 of his last 7 seasons giving him over 100RBI. Lows: He was a much different hitter at Wrigley Field than he was away from it, batting .339 at home and .247 on the road. Well, guess what? His home games aren't at Wrigley anymore. They're at SBC Park, or whatever the hell they're calling it out there these days. That's not the greatest park to be a long-bomber in --- though surprisingly fine for average and runs. Don't expect Alou to bust out with another 39 HRs this season. Maybe not even 29. He is turning 39 haflway through this season, so...proceed with caution. He's being taken in the 8th to 11th rounds of a typical draft. That's a little high for an older guy moving to a new park. Expect a season of .285+/25HRs/90+RBI/95+runs.

8. Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers : Highs: A career .307 hitter coming off an injured 2004 season. From 1999 - 2003 he averagwed 32 HRs and 118 RBI with a .312BA, with about 100 runs sprinkled in. No matter lefty/righty, home/away --- the guy was a machine against whomever he faced. 2004 brought knee surgeries galore (okay, only two), and he's off to the Tigers to see if he can bounce back. Comerica Park isn't making any baseball player swoon, but Maggs should do just fine. If healthy, expect a season of .310/28+HRs/105RBI/90+runs. Lows: He didn't go the typical route in fixing his knee, instead going over to Europe and having a doctor perform his art work there. (I don't get it either.) The Tigers don't have as powerful a lineup as the White Sox have had at times in recent years, so that may temper his RBI and run totals, and Comerica will probably take a couple HRs away as well. But if his health can hold up, Maggs is the type of player who still provides no matter the situation.

9. Corey Patterson - Chicago Cubs : Highs: Only 25 years old, he played his second full-time season in '04, putting up career highs in runs, HRs, RBI, and steals. Hitting 24 HRs and stealing 32 bases makes him a nice threat to approach 30/30 possibilities. Lows: Strikes out a bit too much, with 168 Ks in '04, and his average dipped to a very mediocre .266. He needs to improve upon that to jump up the ranks of fantasy outfielders. The Cubs have lost Alou and Sosa, but their aging bats - especially Sammy's aging corked bat - wasn't going to help much anyway (Alou still has some gas, though...). But the Cubbies still have Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Nomar Garciaparra to hammer the ball, and they should pick up some slack. Expect a season of .275/30HRs/80+RBI/35steals. Expect him to go in the 7th to 9th rounds of a typical draft, which is solid for his production.

10. Vernon Wells - Toronto Blue Jays : Highs: Turned 26 years old in the off-season, and is now the focal poitn for the Blue Jays offense with the departure of Carlos Delgado. Has all the tools to be something special. His 2002 numbers: 23HRs/100RBI/.275avg. His 2003 numbers: 33HRs/117RBI/.317/118runs. His 2004 numbers: 23HRs/67RBI/.272. With the Blue Jays thinking of running a little more this season, Wells is thinking of cracking 20 to 30 steals. Can he do it? He swears he can, but what do you expect him to say? I say he steals at least 20, but over 30 is a stretch right out of the gate. Lows: A bit of a hiccup last year with his overall numbers. True, he did miss a few weeks with an injury, but that still doesn't excuse the relative steepness in which he fell off. We'll chock it up to the "sophmore slump" showing up a year late due to customs at the Canadian border. He plays a good deal better at home in Skydome (or whatever they've changed its name to now), with his average being 49 points higher at home, and his power numbers up at home as well. Don't expect his 2003 numbers, especially with regards to his RBI and runs, but he can still improve a good deal on his average and HRs. Expect a season of .280+/30+HRs/95+RBI...and if he doesn't back down from trying it, we'll give him the 20 steals.

11. J.D. Drew - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: 2004: This Date In History: J.D. Drew Remains Healthy for an Entire Season, in a Feat of Unexpected Proportions!!! Okay, so we're busting on Mr. Drew a bit here, but 2004 was his first season remaining entirely healthy for once really. At the same time, it was the first chance we got to see what type of numbers he could produce if healthy --- and they're not bad: 31HRs/93RBI/.305/118 runs. He's only 29 this season, so he's just in his prime 4 of the 6 months of the '04 season he had 16 or more RBI --- a nice total to have per month. He's always had the potential, still does. Lows: But who wants to wager he ramains healthy for another season without a problem? If he's made a deal with the devil, then maybe. Otherwise, you have to wonder how lucky we were to have 2004 with Drew. It doesn't help that he's left the Braves to go to the Dodgers and their fantastic pitcher's park. In his career at Dodger Stadium in 17 games he's a .263 hitter with 3HRs and 10 RBI. Not bad when you average that out for 162 games, but his average would suffer. Expect a season of .285+/25+HRs/95+RBI/12+steals. - IF healthy. He should be taken around the 10th to 12th rounds, which is great value should he remain healthy. It's a gamble with his health, but for round value, you can't complain.

12. Brian Giles - San Diego Padres : Highs: The 34 year old is a career .299 hitter. He was once a quiet monster in Pittsburgh, putting up 35+ homer/115+RBI/.300 seasons. But once fantasy players caught onto him, it seemed Giles got some performance anxiety. 2003 and'04 have both been solid, if not spectacular seasons for Giles, with 20 and 23 homers respectively. Part of that can be blamed on Petco Park in San Diego, part of it age, and part of it...who knows? Lows: San Diego has a fine lineup - not bewildering, but underrated a bit - yet it's always injured. Giles best days might - might - be behind him, but it's more than likely he has another few good, solid seasons in him. He hits a few more HRs on the road than at home (obviously, with that park), but a season of .290+/25+(maybe 30+)HRs/95 RBI/95 runs is possible. 9th to 12th round is where he's being drafted --- and if you can get him towards the 12th round, that's fantastic value.

Other quick options:
1. Jason Bay - Pittsburh Pirates : 411 ABs in 2004 brought 26HRs/82 RBI/.282 numbers. He's still only 26, and should have a nice season in 2005. He was a hot prospect in the minors before he got the full-time shot to play in '04, so this is expected from him. 13th round is where he's being drafted, and a season of .280+/30HRs/90+RBI is easily attainable with a healthy season.

2. Jose Guillen - Washington Nationals : The man's got issues, that's pretty clear. When a playoff team drops you from their team just as they're about to play in the playoffs and doesn't want your bat, you're a pain in the ass then. He's always had the ability - but never given the opportunity that much - to play. Now with a sure thing of a full-time job with the Nationals, hopefully Frank Robinson can give Guillen some nap times. The Nationals are no prize, but Guillen can put up a 30HR/95+RBI/.290 season if healthy or not suspended.

3. Andruw Jones - Atlanta Braves : Coo-coo-cachoo, where have you gone, Mr. Joo--oo-oo-nes. Once thought to be the next Griffey Jr. or maybe a poor man's Willie Mayes when he was a kid, he's simmered down in his skills in recent years. Only a .268 career average, and underperforming at the plate for his skills. But a season of .270+/30+HRs/110+RBI/100+runs/20 steals still exists in him. He just needs to find it, or want it, sometime. Even though he's been around for ages it seems, he's still only 28 right after the season starts.

4. Lance Berkman - Houston Astros : Still recovering from off-season knee surgery, he should be good to go in May sometime. Usually his power numbers drop off in the second half of the season while his average usually remains high. Great at drawing a walk and OBP - if your league uses them - he should still be highly productive in an alright Astros lineup. If back by mid-May, expect a season of 20+HRs/80+RBI/.315avg.

5. Dave Roberts - San Diego Padres : Hitting leadoff for the Fathers, GM Kevin Towers believes he'll steal 60 bases in 2005. Not a power threat, and seems to catch a groin or hamstring injury once a year to miss a couple weeks. Still a great guy for some cheap steals, runs, and not entirely crippling your average.

6. Torii Hunter - Minnesota Twins : He's said it himself before: he cares more about his fielding than his hitting. Damn you, Torii! He has the hitting skills to be something nice, but we'll have to settle for just good. Great option as a #4 outfielder for your team, or an emergency #3. Good for a 20/20 season with a .280+ average and 85 RBI.

7. Matt Lawton - Pittsburgh Pirates : Never has had many full seasons, either because of depth chart issues or injury, he had one of his best seasons in 2004. Should be playing full time for them, and would be great as a #4 outfielder for you. 20/20 potential still with 100 runs and 75+RBI and a .275+ average.

8. Larry Walker - St. Louis Cardinals : Always injured, but all the talent in the world. Back is bothering him now, not to mention past experiences with every other injury. He's 38 years old, too. If healthy, a .300+/25+HRs/90+ RBI season is possible. But the guy's never healthy. Not for long, at least.

Top Ten by Postion:

Right Field:

1. Vlad Guerrero
2. Bobby Abreu (if he steals)
3. Gary Sheffield (if healthy)
4. Ichiro Suzuki
5. Miguel Cabarera
6. Magglios Ordonez
7. Aaron Rowand
8. J.D. Drew
9. Brian Giles
10. Lance Berkman (would have been 4th or so if healthy)
Notable snubs: Sammy Sosa, Shawn Green,

Center Field:

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Jim Edmonds
3. Carl Crawford
4. Johnny Damon
5. Juan Pierre
6. Corey Patterson
7. Aaron Rowand (qualfies in many leagues in both RF and CF)
8. Vernon Wells
9. Scott Podsednik
10. Garret Anderson (if healthy, he could shoot up to top 5 on this list)
Notable snubs: Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones

Left Field:

1. Manny Ramirez
2. Carl Crawford (qualifies in both LF and CF in many leagues)
3. Miguel Cabrera (qualifies at both RF and LF in many leagues)
4. Barry Bonds (injury and 'roids keep him from #2 spot for now)
5. Hideki Matsui
6. Aubrey Huff (not mentioned in the outfielder category, but qualfies here. Try him for the IF though.)
7. Adam Dunn (top 3 if he can increase average and steal bases in '05)
8. Carlos Lee
9. Moises Alou
10. Jason Bay
Notable snubs: Chipper Jones (God, use him at 3B, please), Lance Berkman (same as for RF), Jose Guillen

Fantasy Sleepers, Deepers, Studs and Duds for Shortstop...

2005-03-12T14:30:00.000-05:00

This used to be the position of the "haves" and "have-nots" with regards to fantasy baseball. But in the past couple of seasons, there's been some fluctuations in talent here, and it's evened out a great deal in that time. There's plenty of value to be had here. So, let's take a look...

Studs:
1. Miguel Tejada - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Okay, so the idea of "haves" and "have-nots" doesn't entirely apply here with Tejada, since if you get him, you definitely grabbed yourself a "have." Having been tossed from Billy Beane's stable of talent out in Oakland, Miggy found himself a career year in Baltimore, batting .311/34HR/150RBI (if you forgot, yes, he did drive in 150). Those were career highs in RBI and batting average for him, as well as tying a career high for HRs, while only being one hit and one run off of tying career highs in those stats as well. He's as durable as they come - and how ironic that he plays for Cal Ripken Jr.'s old team now? He hasn't missed a game since 2000 --- and he still played 160 games in 2000. He was consistent from opening to closing day, hardly having much of a slump along the way. Turning 29 years old in May, he's in the prime of his career. Oh, yeah, and he still plays at Camden Yards for half of his games. Lows: There have been rumors for years that Miggy's been on the juice, though nowhere near to the extent of rumors about Bonds. This would be the first season of consequence for players caught using, so it's something to keep aware of with Tejada. I'm not saying he is or isn't using, I'm just saying it's out there. Pressure alone could hold some burdens for him. 2004 was a career year, and odds are he won't be driving in 150 again. He is only a career .276 hitter, so another year of hitting .310 is most likely not occurring either. And he's not going to be stealing bases by the bunch load either. Look for a season of .290/30+HR/120RBI/105+runs. He's a first round draft pick most likely, but he won't disappoint if healthy.

2. Derek Jeter - New York Yankees : Highs: Pretty consistent career, year-in and year-out. Struggled massively in April, and even had a mediocre May and July, but was unbeatable for June and September to end up with numbers fairly typical of him. Actually ended up with one HR fewer than his career high, and posted a career high for doubles. Plays in the power-laden lineup of the Yankees that allows him to be a solid overall play at all five categories in fantasy baseball: runs, HRs, RBI, batting average, steals. Better second half of the season player than first half, but not by much. Lows: A career .315 hitter, but three of the last four seasons he's batted lower than that career average, including 2004. Not nearly as powerful as Tejada or even Nomar Garciaparra (when Nomar plays), so while his numbers are solid, HRs and RBIs won't be too dazzling. He'll turn only 31 this season, so he's still in his prime. A season of .305/17HR+/75RBI/20+steals/110+runs seems about likely. He's a love him or hate him player. If you try to trade him or for him, odds are you'll find wildly varying beliefs to his worth. Unless you're desperate, there's no need to trade him if you have him. Likely to be drafted anywhere from early 2nd to late 4th round. If gotten in late 4th round, that's great value.

3. Edgar Renteria - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Evolved into one of the best all-around shortstops in the game, now joins Boston's most potent lineup in baseball. He should be batting second, behind Johnny Damon and ahead of David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez. A career .289 hitter, he hit a smidge under that in 2004, hitting .287. But his two previous seasons he hit well above his career average. Stole 34 bases in 2003, but dropped to 17 in 2004. Too good of a runner to not steal 20+ this season, even with Boston's slight Moneyball approach to the game. This is a Red Sox lineup where even Mark Bellhorn is driving in 90 or so from the 8 spot. Expect Renteria to hit .310+/15HR/90+RBI/100+ runs/20 steals. Lows: He's changing leagues for the first time in his career. While that holds less water than it once did years ago, it still can befuddle some hitters for the first month or so of the season as they get used to the new pitchers they haven't faced before. Hasn't scored 100+ runs before in his career, but he also hasn't played for a lineup that's broken records for two consecutive seasons like the Red Sox have. Hitting begets hitting. (ex: Tino Martinez with the Yankees, Vinny Castilla with the Rockies, Bill Mueller with the Red Sox) Expect a solid season. Should be drafted anywhere from the 4th to 6th round, unless there's a run on SS's early. Great value for anywhere in those rounds.

Duds:
1. Kaz Matsui - New York Mets : Highs: A guy with all the potential in the Japanese league, having 30/30 type stats and a solid average as well. Played for a weak lineup for the Mets last year, a lineup that should improve a bit this season. He had to adjust to living in an entirely new society and culture while playing his game, which few of us could do. Not everyone is Hideki Matsui or Ichiro when first coming to America. He's only 29 years old and had plenty of room and time to improve. Lows: Thought to be the hot chick coming to the dance, but turned out to be the hot chick who dances like Elaine in Seinfeld. Those dreams by Nets management of seeing a 30/30 man last year quickly dashed away. In an injury marred season, having played only 114 games, he only hit 7 HRs and had only 14 steals. His batting average was a mediocre .273. He still has plenty of potential, and the Mets lineup (if it can remain healthy) should be a bit of an upgrade over last year's version. Still, 2004 was not his shining moment. A 2005 season of .285/15HRs/70RBI/20+ steals is a possibility. Another bummer of a season is too. He'll be drafted anywhere from the 11th to 20th rounds --- all based upon on high someone will be on him. 20th round --- good value. 11th round --- ouch.

2. Jose Valentin - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: Hey, if you want some cheap HRs from your SS, then there's no better place to look than Jose here. He's hit 25 or more the past 5 seasons. He'll also qualify at 3B after he plays enough games there, as the Dodgers plan to use him as their replacement at the hot corner for Beltre. And there's a solid chance he won't even be drafted in your league. Why? Lows: Because he's a career .243 hitter who batted .216 in 2004. That's after he batted .237 in 2003. That can truly crush your overall team average --- unless you have four batting title contenders on your team as well to balance it out. Moving to the Dodgers and their relatively spacious park isn't going to help him post another 25+ homer season. And his age is creaping towards 37 at season's end. If you get a major injury to your SS and need a stop-gap, he's your guy. Otherwise, there's better options out there.

3. Jack Wilson - Pittsburgh Pirates : Highs: Nice story last season, seeing Wilson remain a solid option for SS most of the season. Put up a .308 average with 11HR and 59 RBI whole scoring 82 runs and having 201 hits. Good to see a little guy make an impact. Lows: I hate doing this to the guy, and even to the Pirates' fans that have to suffer with their horrible management, but Wilson's a dud this year. I know, I know, there are some "experts" out there saying they expect Wilson to go gangbusters this year, but let me put this politely: they're obviously sniffing glue. His .308 average was 43 points higher than his career average (and that's his career average including his .308 average). While his power numbers remained almost identical to his history, it was his batting average that sky-rocketed and made him such an attractive option at SS. Listen, the guy played almost three full seasons before 2004's uptake in average. He's never been close to doing this before. Pre all-star break, his average was .332 --- post all-star break it was .279. See what I'm getting at? Other fantasy "experts" want to ignore that, but history doesn't lie. Wilson's a nice story, and maybe he'll make a run at it again this year, but history doesn't sit on his side.

Sleepers:
1. Bobby Crosby - Oakland Athletics : Highs: A first round draft pick by the A's in 2001, he made his full-time debut in 2004. While the average was rather low at .239, he did have 22 HRs, 64 RBI, and 70 runs. He just turned 25 years old, and with a year under his belt he should flourish. I'm not the biggest fan of Oakland's GM Billy Beane, but he does know how to draft young talent. And Crosby is one of his jewels that he's proud of. Lows: The batting average was bit lower than most expected from him, but as is the case with many young hitters, it should improve with time. The second half of the 2004, Crosby swooned like a pre-teen girl in front of Justin Timberlake. Pre all-star break he batted .266, while post all-star break he managed a measley .209 -- all the while his power numbers were nearly identical. He struck out a bit too much, but if he can cut those down a little, it would only help the average improve. It also wouldn't hurt if Oakland tried creating a better overall lineup someday. But as it is, expect a season of around .255+/20-28HRs/85RBI. The average can be much higher if he develops a bit quicker than expected at this point.

2. Pedro Feliz - San Francisco Giants : Highs: I'm putting him under the shortstop category, even though he qualifies at 1B and 3B. His numbers work much better at SS than at either of the corner slots. 2004 was his first full-time season in the bigs, and he responded by putting up a .276/22HR/84RBI/72run season, a season which almost everyone doesn't know about. This, while Felipe Alou moved him anywhere around the field so he could find a spot to play him on a given night. Some of Feliz's teammates (trust me, it ain't Barry) believe so much in him that they're willing to sit a few games to give him a chance to play more in 2005. In 2003, in only 235 at-bats, he hit 16 HRs and 48 RBI. The talent is there, it's just a question of whether or not he gets the playing time. Lows: He was a very slow developer in baseball, as he's already cracking 30 years old in April, and this will be just his second full season (if he gets the playing time). It took awhile for him to make his move, but it looks like he's doing so. After taking a bit of a dive in June and July of '04, he finished up strongly, batting .306 post all-star break. Odds are he'll go under the radar of most fantasy drafters in your typical league, to the point where he might not even end up drafted. He could be a huge steal and pay nice dividends. If he gets the playing time, expect a nice .280/25HR/85RBI/85run season. Not bad for a guy who might not even be drafted...unless you take him.

3. Khalil Greene - San Diego Padres : Highs: Poor guy. Mildly opens some eyes last year, and those eyes have all fallen asleep on him in the off-season. A rookie last year who improved as the season went on, batting .259 pre all-star break and .293 post all-star --- 4 homers pre, 11 homer post. That's what you want to see from your young players, getting stronger as the season goes on. Greene was expected to be a very solid player coming into last season, so it's not as if he came out of nowhere. Ending up with a season of .273/15HR/65RBI season wasn't orgasmic by any stretch of the imagination, but he was a rookie. The Padres play in a horrible park for hitters, but Greene isn't Ted Williams here with the power numbers. A season of .285/17HR/75RBI isn't out of the question. Lows: Playing shortstop is difficult. Playing shortstop very well like Greene is all the more difficult. Some young shortstops end up banged and battered, which affects their hitting --- with the most recent example being Angel Berroa of the Royals. Berroa burned many fantasy players last season after his stellar rookie season in 2003, and I think that worry is rubbing off on people with regards to Greene. Yes, the "sophmore slump" exists for more young players than it doesn't, and it very well might strike Greene. That said, what do you have to lose on a guy that probably won't even be drafted in your league? (Unless, of course, you have a Padres junky playing in your league, but isn't that an oxymoron on some level? "Padres junky"?)

Deepers:
1. Bill Hall - Milwaukee Brewers : Highs: Our winner for the most bland name in all of baseball goes to Mr. Hall. I know, I know, 98% of you are saying, "Who the hell is this Bill Hall guy?" Well, he's a typical "deeper" type player. Young, needs to improve a fair amount, might not get all that much playing time sometimes, but has some talent. In 2004, in 390 ABs he hit 9 HRs and had 53 RBI, while only batting .238 --- and he had 119 strikouts!!!! That was in only 390 ABs, remember. He must be groovy, because he's a swinger. Lows: He obviously needs improvement. The average is shakey at best, and he needs to cut down on the Ks. Unless you're hitting 45 HRs like Adam Dunn, you can't be striking out that often. He just turned 25, stole 12 bases in '04, and has some very raw talent in him. Keep an eye on him. If he puts it together this season, he could be a very nice surprise.

Other Quality Options at Shortstop:
1. Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: He's up and down more than John Travolta. In 2001, he had 14 HRs and 46 steals while batting .274, while in 2002 he dropped to 11HRs/31steals/.245. 2003 his homerun total plummetted to only 8, and his steals fell to only 20. Then, like Travolta with Pulp Fiction, Rollins made a comeback in 2004, posting a career year in runs, RBI, average (not counting his 2000 season where he played only 14 games), while tying his career best in HRs. So, which Jimmy Rollins shows up in 2005? He just turned 26 years old, the lineup in Philly is still pretty strong, the park is a hitter's park, and Larry Bowa is sunbathing somewhere while yelling at small children. Rollins should have another season, hitting around .280+/12+HRs/70+RBI/30+ steals/100 runs. Lows: The first half of the 2004 season looked to be another mediocre year for Rollins until after the all-star break when Rollins went wild, improving his average by 40 points and hitting 11 of his season's worth of 14 HR. Sometimes, though not always, he can start slowly in a season. Still, I'd like to see some consistency from one season to the next before I give Roillins a very strong recommendation. Being only 26 years old, he has plenty of time to prove he can post back-to-back great seasons. He has the talent, and all the combining factors would lead to believe this is the year he does it. Unlike, say, John Travolta. You'll have to draft him around the 4th to 6th rounds, which is fine value if he steals his bases.

2. Rafeal Furcal - Atlanta Braves : Highs: Where as Jimmy Rollins has yet to post to rather identical solid seasons back-to-back, Furcal already has. The past two seasons he's averaged 116 runs, .285 avg, 14.5 HRs, 60 RBI, and 27 steals. Odds are that at their best he'll post lower RBIs than Rollins and steal fewer bases, but might grab more runs and possibly a better average. It's really a question of what you'd rather have when it comes between the two. Lows: The Braves are becoming more focused on pitching this season, and investing less in their hitting, which only works to hurt Furcal's value. It also doesn't help Furcal that he can't lay off the sauce when he decides he's going for a drive. Drunk driving convictions aren't helping him on the field, never mind off it. Still, he's young (I don't think we'll find out he's any older than he's supposed to be again), being only 26 years old. He'll post solid enough numbers for a late 5th round/6th round pick, especially if he gets the runs and can improve upon his steals.

3. Nomar Garciaparra - Chicago Cubs : Highs: Sigh. He's the best looking girl at school who keeps leading you on, and then she breaks your heart. As an offensive player, he's as good if not better than any other shortstop in baseball right now --- yes, even more so than Tejada. When you look at everything, OBP, BA, slugging, RBI, HRs, steals, runs - you name it, his history shows that he has the talent to be the best. The problem is that the man seemingly is a magnet for baseball's hitting him in the worst possible spot. One hit his wrist (that took ages to heal), one's hit his heel (which caused trouble), never mind the myriad of other injuries he's come across. He's still in his prime, being only 31 until late July. A solid Cubs lineup and a healthy season can snap him back to the top of the SS list in fantasy baseball. a .315/25+/100+RBI/100 run/20 steal season is easily possible. Lows: But he's been injured so often throughout his career. He had stray little injuries in 1998, 1999 and 2000, 2001 was nearly an entire lost season, 2002 and 2003 seemed like he had beaten the injury bug, but then 2004 showed the black cloud still existed. He's just an injury risk of the most blatant example. He can be moody as well, and with the Cubs clubhouse bitching about anything and everything at times, who knows how badly he'll sulk. But he usually can play through his moods. Just cross your fingers that he doesn't step into a pothole and sprain an ankle, or that Mia Hamm boils some pasta and drops the pot in his lap, or some other freakish injury. You'll have to draft him from the 3rd to 5th round (most likely 3rd than 5th), but draft a backup late just in case.

4. Michael Young - Texas Rangers : Highs: Classic case of a late bloomer. Hist first couple of seasons were middling at best. But 2003 and'04 showed what Young is capable of. His 2003 numbers: 14HR/72RBI/.306/106runs/13 steals are overall very solid. His 2004 numbers: 22HR/99RBI/.313/114runs/12 steals are about as well rounded as it gets for a SS in fantasy baseball. Playing in one of the best hitter's parks baseball in Texas and playing in a young, hitter-happy lineup can only help Young have another great year. Lows: There's this lingering worry with some "experts" that Young has somehow pulled off a fluke two seasons in a row. The fault with this logic is that when someone has a fluke season, they really only have a fluke half-season --- a half-season so strong that their end numbers for the overall season look very impressive. Players don't have two "fluke" seasons back to back, seasons where you were solid from beginning to end. His numbers do usually trail off a little in the second half of the season, but they're still solid enough numbers, so it's nothing to worry about. You'll have to draft him around the late 5th round typically to get him. If he posts a season like his last two, that's very solid round value for him. I expect a season of .305/16HRs/80RBI/105runs/10+steals.

5. Orlando Cabrera - Los Angeles Angels : Highs: Okay, so offensively he's not going to blow you away. As an all-around SS he's of much greater value than a fantasy SS. That said, someone out there will be drafting their team and realize they're screwed, as the best SS's have come off the board. So who would you take in that instance? Orlando can be your man. Finally getting out of the 5th dimension of hell - also known as the Montreal Expos - and joining the Red Sox midseason last year, he had a chance to show how his numbers would look pretty good if in a solid lineup. In only 58 games with the Red Sox, he had 6 HRs/31RBI/.294avg. In previous years with the Expos, he's shown he can put up a solid 15 HR type season while swiping 20+ bases. Being in the solid Angels lineup will help him maintain the pace he had with the Red Sox last season. Expect a season of about .275/15HR/75+RBI/15+steals. Lows: Only a career .268 hitter, his average and power numbers sometimes fluctuate from year to year. Some of that can be blamed on the players the Expos threw around him in any given year, some of it is his own fault. He's only 30 years old, so he's in his prime, and he heats up slightly as the weather does as well (especially his power numbers). But considering the state of the Angels, I think he's in a prime position to post a solid season. The biggest issue is where he'll be drafted. Some drafters will be high on him from his stint with the Red Sox so they'll draft him by the 5th round. Others will let him fall until the 10th round. IF he falls much beyond the 7th or 8th round, he's a great grab and a great value. The 5th might be a bit high to draft him in.

6. Carlos Guillen - Detroit Tigers : Highs: After disappointing plenty of higher-ups in Seattle for years with his underperforming ways, his first season with the Tigers was one of those out-of-nowhere occassions in fantasy baseball. Most people (myself included) figured after more than a few full seasons of never improving under his belt, that he wasn't going to be worth mentioning. 2004 offered career highs in nearly every category, making him one of the best shortstops in baseball last year. Being only 29 years old leaves him in his prime, so good things can still be coming. The Tigers are going younger, and their owner has finally - finally! - decided to spend some money on his team, so maybe as a team they can turn some heads. Lows: After a sluggish August, he had some injury issues to finish up the year, missing more games than he played in September. You have to wonder if he doesn't come back down to earth a little bit, even if the type of season he had in Detroit was somewhat expected in Seattle the past few seasons. Some see a huge bust written all over him, but if he can be healthy his numbers most likely will take a slight dip. Expect a season of .280/12+HRs/75RBI. His draft position is all over the map, as some expect the same season as last year from him, while others assume the worst. Anywhere from the 5th to the 12th round is a possibility. The later he sits on the board, the more round value he's offering you. I wouldn't touch him in the 5th round, though.

7. Chone Figgins - Los Angeles Angels /// Jose Reyes - New York Mets /// Juan Uribe - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Check under second base notes for info on Figgins and Reyes. Each of these guys qualify at multiple positions, though Reyes is most likely fitted for second base over shortstop, and Figgins is a toss-up. Uribe is an interesting player in that he finally improved after he left the sweet air of Colorado. Though he qualifies at third base, his numbers would have the most impact playing under second or short. He posted career highs under every important stat category playing for an injury-marred lineup in Chicago last year. Was it a fluke year? Well, he's only 25 years old, and his overall numbers improved as the year season went on, though he was very consistent, ending up with 23HRs/74RBI/.283 avg/82 runs. Lows: I'll give the guy credit for consistency last season. But it's the strangest thing to see a guy improve after he leaves the Rockies, which leads to the worry that he'll bust this year. Typically, after a player has a career year in every category, their numbers dip a little at the very least. That's the safest assumption for Uribe, especially when you consider his young age andsituation with the White Sox, being one of the few hitting options for the team. A 2005 season of .265+/15+HRs/70RBI/80RBI would be a solid follow up to '04. He's drafted anywhere from 10th to the 16th round. Again, another classic case of trying to hold off on him the latest you can to assure you get the best value for him.

8. Alex Gonzalez - Florida Marlins : Highs: Only 28 years old, has some pop in his bat (23HRs, 79 RBI in '04), and plays for a solid lineup with the Marlines on 2005. Lows: Hideous batting average that he seemingly is struggling to improve upon. He's the younger man's version of Jose Valentin. He batted .232 in '04, and has a career average of .242. That doesn't instill confidence. But sometimes hitting begets hitting. He most likely won't get drafted, but if you're desperate for a last round pick, go ahead and take a shot if you need some HRs.

9. Cesar Izturis - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: Just turned 25, can steal 20+ bases for you with a solid enough average and score some runs. Lows: Is the newer version of Omar Vizquel, as he can't get many HRs. If he gives you 5 in 2005, you're lucking out. Dodger Stadium doesn't help matters, and the Dodgers lineup isnt as strong as in 2004. If you need some cheap steals, a late draft pick wont hurt.

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Deepers, Studs and Duds for Third Base...

2005-03-11T21:35:00.000-05:00

Now we're cooking with gas. Talent of all designs exists here at the hot corner. The list alone for studs could ramble on, so I'm going to limit it solely to the bona fide versions, and include the rest at the end. If you screw up picking a solid 3rd baseman, you might as well quit before you even start. Got it?

Studs:
1. Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees : Highs: I'm not going to sit here and pretend I like the guy, because I don't. He has a fraudulent personality (a la, Kobe Bryant, though without the whole, "Bend over, baby..." thing going on that Kobe has), and word from some MLB players: he's a dick. That said, I can remove myself from my personal feelings about the man and offer the obvious: he offers some of the best all-around numbers for a hitter in all of fantasy baseball. Once a 40/40 man, four times he's hit over 40 homeruns, and twice has hit for 50+ homers. Seven straight - and 8 of 9 - seasons he's had over 100RBI. He already has over 200 steals in his career, and showed a comeback for the stolen base last season, swiping 28 after a decline in recent years for it. Early reports out of spring training have him batting second in the Yankee lineup, which should give him a chance to steal a few bases once again. Still a sure thing for at least 35 homers (if he's having a bad year), and over 100 RBI, with solid all-around numbers. Lows: The batting average has declined every year since 2001, from .318 to .300 to .298 to .286 in 2004. (How many other fantasy "experts" will tell you that about around between their slobbering and praising him without looking at the facts?) But he still hasn't celebrated his 30th birthday. (He'll crack that this coming season after the All-star break.) Though known as a 40/40 man, he did that only once - and only came close to doing it that one time he actually did do it - in 1998. His best overall power numbers came in his three Rangers seasons in one of the better hitter's parks in baseball. Those three seasons offered him his only two 50+ homer seasons, and his 3rd highest homerun season as well. It's not a coincidence that once he left Texas his HR total dropped a bit to 36 last year with the Yankees. That said, I'm just trying to show the dents on Arod's otherwise flawless facade. Odds are he'll be drafted first in your fantasy draft, and that's perfectly acceptable. He only qualifies at 3B this season, which lessens his value from last year - but still a good grab - obviously. Now, if only Jason Varitek will pop him in the mouth again...

2. Scott Rolen - St. Louis Cardinals - Highs: Seems like Rolen's been around for 20 years, but he celebrates his 30th birthday just after opening day. Once known as a constantly injury-plagued player, he's shaken that stereotype a bit the past few seasons, while also being "reborn" a bit with the Cards. In 2004, Rolen had a career year for him, with highs in average, homeruns, and RBI. Still fairly young, still an all-around hitter, still in one of the most potent lineups in baseball. It doesn't hurt to have Pujols and Edmonds in the same lineup as you. Lows: Woooo, can you say "swan dive"? Because that's what Rolen did last year. Now, you might be saying, "Didn't you just say he had a career year in 2004 - and now you're saying swan dive? What gives?" If you said that, you're catching on, my young padawan. If not, you've got a lot to learn. Rolen was hotter than the Sahara for April, May, and June. July he was mediocre. August he really his the skids. And September he limped home like one of those marathoners that takes 8 hours to run the race. 80 of his 124 RBI came before the all-star break. His average pre-break: .339. Post-break: .276. He even had a bit of an injury come the tail end of the season. (Oh, no!! The stereotype lives!) He's better than most third basemen, but odds are he's not going to have a career year again in 2005. A season of .290/28HRs/105RBI with maybe around 100 runs should thrill you. He should be drafted around the late 2nd to early 4th round, depending on the whims of those drafting.

3. Adrian Beltre - Seattle Mariners : Highs: I wasn't going to put him in the studs column, much to the surprise of most everyone, no doubt, But I'll do it with a giant asterisk. First, the good: he's going to turn only 26 right after opening day. He's been in the majors since 1998. He had career highs across the board practically. HRs, RBI, runs, average, doubles --- he was a machine in 2004 for the Dodgers. He's switched to the new-look Mariners who have Richie Sexson on board to go with Boone and Ichiro. Lows: Here's my problem, and where I create my giant asterisk of note: While always believed to be a great prospect and talent in the Dodgers organization, he under-performed every year until 2004, which juuuust happened to be his contract year. (Coincidence, no doubt.) His previous career high in homers was 23, until he hit 48 in 2004. His previous career high in RBI was 85, until he smacked in 121 in 2004. His previous career best batting average was .290 (which in itself was a rare average for him), that was until 2004 when he hit .334. His previous best for runs was 84 back in 1999, until he had 104 runs in 2004. (You catching the drift yet?) Am I saying he can't hit like this in 2005? No. Do I doubt he can be that great in 2005? Yes. The only high point is that he goes from one pitcher's park in LA to another in Seattle, so he won't be at a disadvantage there. You'll have to draft him in the mid-2nd to mid-3rd round if you want him. I say he has a season of .290/31/97 --- not bad, but no 2004.

4. Hank Blalock - Texas Rangers : Highs: Hank must've pissed off someone in the fantasy baseball world, because his stock seems to have dropped quicker than Enron over the off-season, and I don't see it. In only his second full-time season, he improved his homerun, RBI, and run totals, while only his batting average dropped. So why did his value drop over the off-season? Did he steal someone's girlfriend? Unless he was juicing all this time, I don't see any reason to worry about Blalock's production. He was hotter in the first half of the season than the second by a solid margain, but listen to me closely: it was only his second full season playing in the major leagues. Unlike Rolen who's a vet, or Beltre who decided he wanted to get paid, Blalock was just in his second full season. A season of .285+/30-35HRs/100+RBI is easily attainable in '05. Lows: But because I'm fair, I'll admit he did struggle in the second half of the season. Blalock is a bit streaky at times as a hitter, but at the same time, many young hitters are. Blalock only just turned 24 in the offseason --- so it's not as if he's reached his career's zenith. A wretched July in '04 brought only 3 homers and a .190 average, which hurt his overall numbers. '04 was a much more streakier year than '03 --- yet he put up better overall numbers in '04. I say he stabilizes in 2005 and doesn't yo-yo as much. If I'm risking a pick on one young 3rd baseman and my choices are Blalock or Beltre, I'm taking Blalock without a doubt. Oh, did I mention that more often than not, you can get Blalock in the 4th or 5th round, too?

Duds:
1. Troy Glaus - Arizona Diamondbacks : Highs: He hasn't even hit his 29th birthday, and won't until 2/3 of the way through the season. He's a guy who can hit homers in a hurry, putting up impressive power numbers quickly. Lows: But the guy's one dive for a liner up the third base side away from jamming his achy shoulder again, and missing another month or more again. He's had back-to-back seasons of major injury spells. He's a career .253 hitter. And with his bum shoulder, he's probably not going to even sneak in with his usual 10 steals either. So why the demand for the man? Because everyone's dreaming of him cranking a .300 season where he's not injured, and putting up 45+ homers and 120 RBI. I say with the D-Backs - if healthy - he'll bat .255/34HRs/105RBI. If healthy. An 8th round pick for a third baseman with injury risks and batting .250? It's up to you.

2. Melvin Mora - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: Hit .340 (yes, that was Melvin Mora who hit .340) in 2004, with 27 HRs and 104 RBI and 111 runs. He even threw in 11 steals. Someone's been eating his Wheaties. Lows: Hey, it's great to see a career utility guy break out. It was also great to see the Red Sox win the World Series. What do those two things have in common? They don't happen often. I admit, Mora did bat .317 in 96 games in 2003 as well --- but he also batted .233 in 2002 in 149 games. And in 2003 his power numbers weren't nearly as impressive. Maybe he was a product of an improved lineup around him in Baltimore. Maybe he met up with Barry Bonds' boys. I don't know. What I do know is that before last season, this now 33 year old hitter had 49 career homers. I know that Mora is a career .280 hitter --- and that includes the inflation from his bloated 2004 of .340. I know that before last year, Mora never had a season with more than 64 RBI. If you want to draft him anywhere from the 3rd to 5th round to get him, which you'll have to, you knock yourself out. I'll pass.

3. Vinny Castilla - Washington Nationals : Highs: Hit .271 with 35 homers and 131 RBI in 2004. I can't go on. I just can't. Why? Because...Lows: It was in Colorado, that's why! Let's look at the numbers, friend, shall we? When Vinny was in Colorado in the mid-1990's, he went 5 straight seasons without hitting fewer than 32 homers a season --- 191 total homers over that 5 year span. Then Vinny let the thin air get to his head, and he left the Rockies. The next 5 seasons with the Devil Rays and Braves, Vinny hit 65 total home runs. See, that's the same amount of seasons, yet almost 130 fewer home runs. Then, in 2004, Vinny decided to see if the glorified air of Colorado had any love left for him, so he went back...and hit 35 homers again. Are you catching my drift? He's also turning 38 this year. And if you haven't noticed yet, he's not playing for the Rockies in 2005 again. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Run. Don't turn back. Don't be seduced. Don't allow it. Just run. It's not worth it. Run!!!!

Sleepers:
1. Aaron Boone - Cleveland Indians : Highs: Apparently, Boone has decided to lay off the pick-up basketball games for the time being, saving his knee from snapping for now. (Hey, way to go, Boone! Way to use your head for once!) He missed the entire 2004 season because of those very pick-up basketball games, and now makes his comeback in '05. As a "sleeper" status would state, Boone isn't going to put up Arod-type numbers, but based upon value where you can draft him, he's your typical low risk/high reward. 2002 showed Boone's best overall numbers, save for the anemic average of .241. 38 doubles, 26 homers, and 87 RBI in 2002 - plus 32 steals made Boone a hot commodity. In splitting his time between the Reds and Yankees in 2003, Boone hit 24 HRs and 96 RBIs with 23 steals, while improving on his average. He's a career .290 hitter who just turned 32 years old. He's still in his prime, and word out of spring training is that he's looking good in both the field and at the plate so far. Lows: He is coming back from injury, though, an injury that cost him an entire season. His last in-game season action came in the 2003 World Series against the Marlins. He's never had 100 RBI or more than 26 HRs, and his average isn't mind-blowing. But we're talking round value here. Odds are he'll be available from the 15th round on in your typical 12 team league draft. By that stage of the draft, you should be taking educated gambles, and Boone fits that criteria very, very well.

2. Dallas McPherson - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim : Highs: Should be the starting third baseman for the Angels this season, replacing the departed Troy Glaus, and part of the reason why the Angels so easily passed on resigning him. McPherson was a jaw-dropper in the minor leagues, hitting over 40 homers in 2004 in the minors. In a solid enough Angels lineup with Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson, and Orlando Cabrera, he should have a chance to put up some very nice numbers. Oh, and he's only 24 years old. Lows: But he comes with injury issues. Throughout his time in the minors, he experienced back problems, and he's already complaining of the same issues in spring training this year. A bad back can cripple a power hitter, and it won't help McPherson. It also won't help that this will be his first full season facing major league pitching, which will take time to get used to. But considering that he won't be drafted until the 16th round to the very end of your draft (and might even slip to not being drafted at all), if you have an extra bench spot, it's not going hurt at all to take a flyer on him.

Deepers:
1. Joe Crede - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Sigh. Joe, Joe, Joe. Let's just say that Crede is slowly developing. When in the minors, he had more buzz than a Lord of the Rings movie. After two lackluster seasons, though, it seems he's started to be forgotten. But let's not forget good ol' Joe. Not everyone comes out of the gate flying. Just look at Carl Pavano for someone who took a little longer than expected to evolve. Crede turns 27 this April, and has only played two full seasons for the White Sox. This is a man who in 2002 hit 12 homers and 35 RBI in only 53 games --- you do the math. (That comes out to about 36 HRs and 105 RBI in a full season.) He has the potential. I'm not saying he's going to bust out this year, but he has the potential. Lows: His first two full seasons have only resulted in an average of 20 HRs, 72 RBI, and a .250 average. That's not wowing anyone, especially when you bat .239 in 2004. You want an odd fact: he hits almost 40 points lower in day games than he does at night throughout his career --- so if you want to play him solely for night games, you could even manipulate the stats a bit in your favor. Odds are he won't even be drafted, not even close, unless a White Sox super-fan snatches him up. But he bears watching, and it's not out of the question that he pulls off a breakout season this year. He's your classic "deeper" --- someone without much buzz, but with potential that they haven't lived up to yet.

2. Morgan Ensberg - Houston Astros : Highs: You'd have sworn he was a pyromaniac the way he ran around bruning all the fantasy players that were banking on him last season for a big year. I was one of them, I admit. He's still no shoo-in to get the full time gig without Mike Lamb looking over his shoulder. But let's look at the bright side for now: in 2003 he did hit 25 HRs in 385 ABs, while batting .291, and driving in 60. In 2004, he finished the season very strong (but by that time, many fantasy players forgot about him). In June he hit .261. July .258. August .299. September .353. After not hitting a HR until July (yes, until July), he did smack 10 in the final half of the season. Lows: But it did take him three months to get around to hitting that first HR of the season. I believe he was thinking too much, which may seem peculiar to say, but Ensberg is too much of a talent to be going three months without hitting a HR. If he gets the full-time gig at 3B for the Astros, he should turn it around eventually, as he was showing signs of it in the second half of the season. He is 29 years old, so he's getting up there in age to really make a splash, but last year was only his second full season in the majors. This is his make or break season. I say, given a full-time gig and health, that he bats .290/20+HRs/90RBI.

Other Quality Options at Third Base:
1. Eric Chavez - Oakland Athletics : Highs: Still young, having just turned 27 years old. Billy Beane believes in him, since he's practically the only Oakland player that Billy's decided to pay for once. (I wonder if Chavez has incriminating photos of Beane and a farm animal.) Some believe Chavez is among the top 3 or 4 third baseman in baseball, and I no doubt agree he has some amazing talent. Over the past 5 seasons, he's average 30 HRs exactly and 97 RBI. And before 2004 (where he had some injuries), he was good for about 35 doubles as well. Great in the field (though that hardly matters to fantasy players), he's a great overall player in MLB. Lows: But we're talking fantasy baseball here, and here's why he doesn't crack my elite: he has a career batting average of .277, with a career season best of .288. That's hardly eye-popping. Playing in a thin lineup, he doesn't get driven in much, having never scored 100 runs in a season, and having only a career best of 94 runs in 2003. He's a great talent, but I'm not one of these "experts" that sees him having any huge leaps over what he's already done per season. Can he hit over .300? Absolutely. Can he score over 100 runs in a season? Absolutely. But he hasn't done it yet, so that's why he's just another great option at third base and not elite. I predict a .285/32HR/105RBI season.

2. Aramis Ramirez - Chicago Cubs : Highs: He used to fly under the radar. So much so, that on Pardon the Interruption, Michael Wilbon (one of a string of no-nothing sports commentators on ESPN) didn't even know Ramirez existed after his rookie season with the Pirates when he hit 34 HRs and 112 RBI. He's averaged 29 HRs his first four seasons in the majors. If you take out his sophmore slump second season from the average, he's averaged 32 HRs. He's averaged 100 RBI every season for his career --- and if you take out his sophmore slump season, he's averaged 110 RBI. He only has a career batting average of .273, but that includes his down second season --- but he's also batted .300 or better two of his four seasons. He turns only 27 mid-way through this season, and was a model of consistency throughout 2004. Lows: The Cubs are shy Sammy Sosa (who needed some more cork for his bat last season, I admit) and Moises Alou this season, and Nomar is one dinged up wrist/heel/hammy/thigh/runny nose away from missing three months of the season. Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Corey Patterson will carry this team this year (with Nomar, should he choose to remain healthy), but I think he's more than capable to handle it. He has a bit of trouble against left-handed pitching, but it's not enough to warrant benching him -- and he's also a better daytime hitter than nighttime -- but, again, it's not enough to bench him. You'll have to draft him in the 3rd or 4th round to get him, but he's a quality hitter. If you're looking for some stability at third, you could do much, much worse than Ramirez.

3. Aubrey Huff - Tampa Bay Devil Rays : Check out the info under first baseman. Still, he qualifies at three positions (1st, 3rd, OF) in many leagues, and he's maybe more valuable at 3rd than 1st. Having the options of sliding him into three positions makes him all that more valuable. DO NOT fall for the idea that he had a horrible season last year. He sucked for a month, and all fantasy players seem to think the man tanked all season. He didn't. Look at the facts under the first base column. A very solid pick for the value he offers. Someone high on him might draft him as high as the mid-2nd round, but he could just as easily fall to the 4th round as well. Either way, a solid pick.

4. Mike Lowell - Florida Marlins : Highs: Has averaged about 24 HRs the past 5 seasons, with an average of 95 RBI. The Marlins are creating a lot of buzz with Delgado joining a blooming Miguel Cabrera, Lowell, and Juan Pierre, and the idea is that they'll have a much mroe potent offense this season. Lows: He is only a career .277 hitter, though in 2004 he did bat .293. That said, his power numbers struggled mightily down the stretch, hitting only 5 HRs in August, September, and October. Post all-star break, he only had 30 RBI. Part of that has to do with dealing with nagging injuries he tried to play through, but he also has a career habit of cooling off in the second half of the season. It wouldn't be crazy to draft him and then trade him for some value in mid-July before he slows up a bit. He'll be drafted around the 6th or 7th round generally, which is a bit high for his numbers, but not ridiculous. A fine player (but try trading him by July).

Others:
1. David Wright - New York Mets: Young prospect, bit of a sleeper, but bad park and bad team (forget Pedro and Beltran). He has the talent to have a very, very solid team. The old rule in fantasy sports with regards to success is drafting known commodities in the first ten rounds. Wright, though a solid young hitter (he's only 22) and capable of having a very nice season, will end up drafted as high as the 8th round. I just wouldn't reach that high unless I knew I had another option. (Try drafting Boone as a backup, and then I can see taking that 8th round risk on him.)

2. Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves: Hey, he's finally back where he belongs. Seeing him in left field was like watching Hamlet with Ashton Kutcher playing lead. It just wasn't working. Plus, his numbers weren't flourishing, nor were they as impressive when stacked up against other OFs. A horrible .248 average in 2004 was much lower than anything he's typically done. 2004 also ended a string of 8 straight seasons of 100+ RBI. He has a solid chance to make it back to there this season, but he might be drafted as high as the 4th round, which seems mildly risky on a guy who did have his worst season since 1995.

3. Chone Figgins - Los Angeles Angels : Check out second baseman column. He qualifies practically everywhere on the field, except ballboy and grounds crew. Better served playing second base for you.

4. Corey Koskie - Toronto Blue Jays : Many seem to still be drunk on the one lone season when Koskie had over 100 RBI and stole 27 bases back in 2001. He did come close in HRs last season, but his overall numbers are still lacking. If you need a backup at 3rd, or you simply got screwed in the draft and are desperate, take a flyer on Koskie and cross your fingers. He always seems to have some lingering injury.

5. Shea Hillenbrand - Toronto Blue Jays : Most likely will get some time at first base, and qualifies there in most leagues. Again, another solid backup option at 3rd, or an emergency guy if you need one for 3rd. Better average than Koskie (.300+ isn't out of the question) but not a biggest power hitter ever.

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Deepers, Studs and Duds for Second Base...

2005-03-09T23:29:00.000-05:00

Ahhh, second base. When did it become such a barren landscape for fantasy players? It used to be that catcher was the land of slim pickings, and maybe even shortstop, but this year the cream of the crap crop seems to exist at second base. So what do we do when faced with such a dilemma? Well, let's take a look, shall we?

Studs:
1. Alfonso Soriano - Texas Rangers : Highs: Supposedly, he just had his 29th birthday in January - but he is a Dominican, which means he might be pushing the AARP envelope anyday now for all we know. But in the land of second base shit, he's as good as we get for a diamond. Always capable of hitting 35+ HRs and close to 100RBI, 2004 was not his greatest season. This is a man that was one HR away from joining the rare 40/40 club in 2002, so to see a season where he hit only 28 HR and steal 18 bases is a disappointment. Even his number of runs dropped severely, as he fell out of the lead-off spot, and dealt with some injury issues. Already in spring training in 2005, he's complaining of hamstring issues. But, we are talking about a very potent lineup in Texas, and the possibility of him moving back to the lead-off spot. Listen, when you're talking about a position where utility men sometimes look like golden possibilities, having a guy with 40/40 potential is amazing. Do I think he does that this season? No. Do I think he's the most productive 2B and the guy with most upside? Undoubtedly. If he stays healthy and bats lead-off, expect a season of .290/30-35HR/95RBI/25steals/105runs. If he doesn't bat lead-off, lower everything except the average for him a smidge. Still the best option available. Lows: Is coming off the hamstring issues last season, and already bitching about it. Last year was an adjustment season for him by being his first not in the Yankee pinstripe. Still strikes out too much, but he's improved the past three seasons on that. He's a better plyer than he showed last year, and even last year's numbers put him near or at the top for 2B. If you want him, you'll have to draft him by the middle of round one most likely, mainly for all his potential. Don't underestimate the value in drafting him that high. When you consider some of the garbage most of your league mates will end up with at second base, Soriano gives you a strong advantage over them.

2. Jeff Kent - Los Angeles Dodgers : Highs: Six out of the last seven seasons he's had over 100 RBI, including last season, and he's the model of consistency when it comes to producing. A career .289 hitter, in 2004 he hit exactly that, though his average has gone down the past three seasons. Lows: He just celebrated his 37th birthday on March 7th, but his numbers haven't dipped too quickly as he's aged. The belief is that age hits a player one season, but there's usually warning signs the previous years. Even though his average has dipped the past three seasons, it's still been above his career average during that time, and his power numbers have remained rather solid in that same time period. The move to the Dodgers and that massive picther-friendly park won't help matters, though, and a weaker Dodger lineup than last season will hurt as well. So why does he rank second with me? Consistency, consistency, consistency --- and he plays second base, for crying out loud. He's never going to blow you away, but considering the biggest worries don't have to do with Kent, per se, but with the park and lineup around him, and considering he is a power hitting second basemen, draft him without a huge worry. He can go as late as the 7th round or later in your draft at times, and for that round, that's great value. Expect 20-25HRs/90+RBI/.280+AVG.

3. Marcus Giles - Atlanta Braves : Highs: In one full season back in 2003, he showed flashes on greatness, batting .316/21HR/69RBI and over 100 runs. Last season, injuries plagued him, but his average still showed that promise. He's still young, only 27 in May, and plays for a solid team, if it isn't spectacular on offense. He's most likely never going to jack 30+ homers and drive in 100 like Kent and Soriano can, but he can offer you solid all-around numbers for a second baseman without a second thought. A 2005 season of .310/20HRs/75RBI/90Runs isn't out of the question, if healthy. Lows: The Braves won't wow you with their offense. J.D. Drew skipped town, Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield skipped town a year earlier, Andruw Jones has always lived below his talent level, and Chipper Jones isn't getting any younger, and all that doesn't help Giles. But he's shown he can still offer up solid numbers otherwise. His health has always had a little question mark beside it, but I'm wagreing he ramains mostly healthy this year. You'll most likely have to draft him ahead of Kent in your league if you want him, depending if you get a Kent-lover or a Giles-lover in your league. Giles can go as high as the 3rd round, but based upon his numbers, that isn't the greatest value you can get. Personally, I'd wait for Kent in a later roudn to get a better value, or see if Giles falls a couple round before I'd snatch him.

Duds:
1. Bret Boone - Seattle Mariners : Highs: In my opinion, for three seasons between 2001 and 2003, he was right there as the best 2B in baseball with Soriano. But last year he smacked into a wall the size of Kirstie Alley. If -If - everything bounces Boone's way in 2005, with a stronger and younger lineup around him in Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, Boone can rebound a bit from his horrible 2004. A season with an optimistic average of .270+ is possible, with 20+ homers and 85+RBI, and maybe even improved runs (90+...up from a poor 74 in 2004) and 10 steals are possible. Lows: As opposed to Kent, who seems to still be holding on - as can happen - Boone seems to be one of those players who's hit the older-age slide in his career. That's not to say he isn't valuable at second base, but his days as a second round draft pick are way over. The biggest saving grace for Boone is that Beltre and Sexson have moved into Seattle to help him out, so he doesn't become the sole focus of opposing pitchers. But, more telling is that his strikeouts have increased the past three seasons, while his doubles have dipped a bit --- and he even couldn't muster one lousy triple last year, the first time since 1992 he's gone without even one triple in a season. It's not out of the question that Boone's slide could continue. The K's are the biggest warning sign, so watch out. Why he's being drafted ahead of Giles and Kent in many leagues, I'll never know. Hold off until Kent and Giles are off the board before you grab for Boone.

2. Luis Castillo - Florida Marlins : Highs: Plays in a solid lineup with the Marlins, and if you're looking for some speed and some runs at second base, here's a solid enough option for you.... Lows: ...but which Luis Castillo are you going to get? This guy's like Martha Stewart and Jekyll & Hyde all wrapped into one, you don't know what type of hitter you're going to get. Everyone fell in love his with speed on the bases, but injuries slowed him down the past two seasons, as well as having Juan Pierre on the bases ahead of him often enough. He's never hit more than 6 HRs in a season (he did that in 2003), and is usually only good for 2 HRs a season, while he's never had more than 47 RBI in a season (he did that in 2004). He's only gone over 100 runs once in a season, and that was all the way back in 2000. So, unless you're expecting a career year, don't even expect any power numbers. If the guy doesn't steal 35+ bases, he's a bust in my book since he's not giving you any power. And his average is no certainty to be above .300, so you can't even hold onto that. Expect a season of .290+/3HRs/45RBI/95Runs/25 steals. But when compared to what else is available, I wouldn't draft him unless he was sitting there like a broke man on the side of the road in Las Vegas waiting for someone to draft him in the 20th round.

Sleepers:
1. Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: Here's a guy who was a first round pick in the 2000 draft, #15 overall, who finally got some solid playing time in 2004. In only 267 at-bats, he hit 13HRs and 57RBI. Double those at-bats for an entire season, and hey now, those are some pretty good numbers he's putting up. Philly has an under-performing lineup, especially with Pat Burrell getting more hits with the ladies he's bagging off the field than hits he's getting on it. But Utley does play in the sweet hitter's haven in Philly, and if the lineup can maintain a pulse, AND he doesn't sputter like many young players, he's a guy you might want to draft in the middle to late teen rounds (say, 16th to 18th round) and hold him on your bench to see if he explodes. He very well might. Lows: He's young. His average is still only in the .260+ range, but that can improve with time. (Though, let's hope he doesn't look to Pat Burrell for hitting advice.) He'll have his slumps like all hitters, especially young hitters, do. But he's not going to hurt drafting in the middle teen rounds, and his upside is fantastic. Hell, trade for him on the cheap if you don't draft him. Most likely his owner is blase over Utley's pedigree, and just think's he a guy with an odd first name who only hit 13 homers last year, while ignoring how many at-bats Utley did that in.

2. Mark Bellhorn - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Let's see, he plays in a hitters park, in a lineup that's set records for two straight years, has a great OBP, qualifies in most leagues at two positions (though you shouldn't need him at 3B unless for an emergency), and when he gets to play a full season he puts up solid numbers very, very quietly. He's a guy who walks as much as he strikes out, but in that Red Sox lineup, no matter where he hits, he's good for 90+ runs and 80+ RBI. In his only other full season - with the Cubs in 2002 - he hit 27 homers. He might go undrafted in your league, but that's mildly bizarre when you look at the facts and stats. Lows: The biggest gripe with Bellhorn is that he takes too many pitches, which inevitably leads to him striking out a great deal, but also leads him to get on base via the walk...which leads to him scoring runs for the Red Sox and for you. His average is always his Achilles heal, but 3 our of four categories isn't bad for a sleeper that would otherwise go undrafted. And if he could cut down on his Ks, he might even help you in average as well. Without having to battle Pokey Reese for playing time this season, he should see even more playing time than in 2004. He does only have two full seasons under his belt, but he played through some mild injuries last season, so you should expect the same again this year. A season of .260+(.280+ if he lowers the Ks)/20HRs/75-90RBI and 90+Runs is possible easily with a healthy year.

Deepers:
1. D'Angelo Jimenez - Cincinnati Reds : Highs: Here's a guy who's been around more in his young life than Paris Hilton. But unlike Ms. Hilton, Jimenez actually has some talent. Most likely he's going to go undrafted in any fantasy baseball draft you partake in this year, but he offers great value for that position. 2004 offered Jimenez's first full season with one team, and he offered up 12HRs and 67RBI in an injury-riddled lineup. Splitting time between the White Sox and Reds in 2003, he offered up 14HRs and 57RBI. He's only 27, was once a nice prospect in the Yankees system, and is just entering his prime. Now given a chance to play full-time, he should be good for a .280/14HR/70+RBI season. For a guy that won't even get drafted in your league, that's fantastic valie. Lows: Since he's not of the stellar quality, none of his stats will jump off the page. He started off 2004 massively slowly, and history shows he's a second half of the year type hitter. Don't give up on him if his April and May leave something to be desired. He always has something left in the tank for the second half.

Other Quality Options at Second Base:
1. Mark Loretta - San Diego Padres : Highs: Like a fine wine, Loretta keeps getting better with age. Since he's not a power hitter, but more of a slap kind of guy, we don't have any concerns. The relative power numbers have come on of late, in the past two seasons. They have been his only seasons of double digit homers. But history shows that he's always been a quality average guy, so batting another .300 is definitely reasonable. Lows: The ony reason he doesn't get Stud status is the upside. We've seen Loretta's upside already in his career, and he still isn't playing in a better park, and he's still stuck with the same injury-laden lineup, so we can only support the guy so much. A .300/10+HRs/75RBI season is possible., with maybe 90 to 100 runs. The biggest problem is round value with Loretta. You'd have to draft him anywhere from the 5th to 7th round to get him. When you consider some other options available as many as 10 rounds or more later, is Loretta worth it? That's where you make your decision.

2. Ray Durham - San Francisco Giants : Highs: Here's a guy who was supposed to have been a victim of an injury-marred season in 2004. So let's look at the numbers and forget the stereotypes, shall we? He still scored 95 runs (not bad), had 17HR (pretty good), batted .282 (looks nice), and had 65 RBI with 10 steals. This is a guy who hasn't hit below his career batting average (.279) since 2001, when he batted .267. If he could have a fully healthy season without any hammy problems, then it's more than possible for him to get back to his days of stealing 25+ bases. Even so, he's greatly undervalued. And what's the massive difference between him and Loretta other than 10 to 15 rounds in a draft? Lows: Probably injuries, that's what. And stereotypes that you're always injured. And getting traded often from one team to another, so people forget what you've done in the past. He's the same age as Loretta, and it's not as if he can't have a comparable season. For the value he'll offer where he'd be drafted, why not take a gamble in the very end of your draft on him?

3. Chone Figgins - Los Angeles Angels /// Ryan Freel - Cincinnati Reds : Highs: The battle between the two guys in baseball trying to qualify at the most positons and also steal bases. Figgins is the better overall value here, as he's most likely going to get the at-bats to offer up the better overall stats. That said, in full-time, Freel will probably steal more bases. And the way the Reds become injured, he'll still get around 400 ABs I'd say. Neither guy is going to jack up some huge power numbers, but if you need some runs and steals and a fill-in at a various spot on your roster, these guys can be helpful. Lows: The lack of a certain spot in the field, especially for Freel, doesn't help. And Figgins is the favorite to get you more RBI when all is said and done. But if you're looking for some cheap steals and some depth help, these two will do nicely.

4. Jose Reyes - New York Mets : Highs: Looked upon as the next great infielder, the man has not stayed healthy at all in his short career. If anything, if he can stay healthy he's good for upwards of 40 to 50 stolen bases and a solid enough average with some runs thrown in as well. Lows: But can he ever stay healthy? When doing any draft, you have to take some risks on some players, whether it be age or injury. With Reyes and his untold amount of past injuries, can he stay healthy? You'll have to draft him from about the 5th or 6th round, or maybe he'll fall to about the 8th, but it's a risk you'll have to wager on. He can be a great help for steals, but can he keep his hamstring from snapping again?

5. Jose Vidro - Washington Nationals /// Juan Uribe - Chicago White Sox /// Julio Lugo - Tampa Bay Devil Rays : Highs: In short, Uribe had a career year in 2004 after he left Colorado (odd), Vidro is the most consistent, but has injury issues, and Lugo plays in the hell that is Tampa, but puts up pretty good numbers when he isn't beating his wife. Lows: Can Uribe maintain that upswing in his career post-Rockies? (I say he comes back to earth a bit.) Can Vidro shake the injury bug and go back to his days as a solid option for a second baseman? (I say he can.) And can Julio Lugo maintain his relative anonymity in Tampa Bay while still being a solid option at 2B? (I say why not?) My projections on their upcoming seasons: Uribe: .270/18HR/68RBI/10+steals --- Vidro: .305/15HR/75RBI --- Lugo: .275/10HR/65RBI/15steals.

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Deppers, Studs and Duds for First Base...

2005-03-08T16:35:00.000-05:00

First base exists as one of the deepest positions in the infield, but shouldn't be taken lightly. You want an all-around great hitter here, and odds are you're not going to get much in the way of speed. The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you want to grab the elite of the elite power hitting first basemen or go for your average run-of-the-mill guy at that corner. It's all about the value in which you draft the player.

Studs:
1. Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals : Highs: Sadly, the days of Pujols qualifying at 1B/3B/OF are over. He's solely a 1B guy these days, though there are worse things to happen in life. There still no one that matches his numbers at 1B (or anywhere else in baseball, for that matter). With a great lineup around him, young age, and amazing ability, he's always a shoo-in for at least .325/35HR/130RBI/115R --- and that's if he's having a sluggish year. His average can go another 25 points higher, he can hit 10 to 15 more HR, and he's capable of having a 150RBI season easily. Lows: Buuuuut, he does have an injury risk going for himself this season. The plantar fasciitis in his left heel, a painful injury that's chronic. He had it last year and played through the injury, but he did state once in the offseason that he wasn't sure if he could do it again this season. This spring training he's still being nagged by it, yet is already crushing the ball to all fields with ease. You'll have to draft him within the first 5 picks of the first round to get him, but you have to wonder if his injury will take him out sometime this season. He's a tough guy who can hang in there, but you have to wonder how long.

2. David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox : Highs: After toiling in Minnesota for the first six seasons and barely playing for most of it (depth chart and injury), he's had two full-time seasons with the Red Sox that show his talent. No matter if he bats 3rd or 4th in the lineup, he'll still produce being in the best lineup in baseball. A .300/45HR/145RBI season isn't out of the question this season. He took the offseason off for once (what a genius idea), skipping the Dominican winter league he usually partakes in to rest his sore shoulder. For whatever it matters, he played the last 1/3 of the regular season and the playoffs with the achy shoulder, and it barely affected him. Lows: The two biggest question marks are the shoulder and the lineup position. Neither should be of great concern for Big Papi this season. If a left-handed hitter can hit the ball over the Wall in left field at Fenway, he can do scary things. Mo Vaughn once owned the Wall, and now Ortiz has mastered it. A poor season by Ortiz is unlikely unless a freakish injury takes him down. Playing DH mainly should greatly help him staying healthy.

3. Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies : Highs: If your biggest concern is average, then Helton at first is the first baseman you want. Playing the the rarified air of the Rockies has massively helped out Helton's production. Yet, when you break the numbers down, he's still producing on the road. In 2004 he batted .368 at home and .326 on the road. The power numbers show more of a difference when you talk home/road. But playing for Colorado will make any hitter look like a manic depressive. Overall, his power numbers were down last year, yet his walks increased for the 3rd straight year. Odds are the walks decrease this season, as the Rockies have lost a little punch in the lineup. Expect Helton to lead all first baseman in average, while getting back to hitting 35+ HRs and 110+ RBI. Lows: The two biggest worries are that his age is getting up there. He's only 32, but age is age. Talking about athletes is like talking about supermodels. As they age, they gain more question marks as to what once made them so "super." And the Rockies lineup isn't the strongest it's been in awhile, but having Preston Wilson back for an entire season should help if anything. But Helton's one of the few bulletproof first baseman in fantasy baseball.

4. Jim Thome - Philadelphia Phillies : Highs: The consistent long-bomber of the first basemen club. Averaging 47 HRs over the past three seasons, 47.5 HRs the past four seasons, and 45.4 HRs the past five seasons. 8 of the last 9 seasons he's gone over the 100 RBI plateau. If you want power without any worries, he's the man. Lows: He's always been shaky with regards to his average. A career .284 average, 3 of the past 4 seasons have had an average below the career average. The first thing to go for a power hitter is their average. Turning 35 years old during this season, Thome should still put up 40+ homers and have 100 RBI in the hitter's haven in Philly, but don't be surprised if his average struggles to get out of the .260 range. If it doesn't happen this season, it'll happen next season. It happens to the best of them, and it'll happen to Thome eventually, too. But if power's all you care about, you're still good to go with him.

Sleepers:
1. Travis Hafner - Cleveland Indians : Highs: The reason Cleveland said tootaloo to Thome a couple seasons ago without much worry was because they had Hafrner after Hafner played for Texas for one season in part-time duty. Turning 28 years old this June, he played his first full season last year and put up very solid numbers - 28HRs/109RBI/.311AVG. Playing in the middle of a young, powerful, solid lineup in Cleveland, he should only improve on his power numbers, and his runs from 2004 (96) should improve as well. Lows: He slumped a little in August of last season, mainly from it being his first full season, and hitting the "wall" --- sort of how Melanie Griffith has hit one as well. But, the good news for Hafner is that he can rebound from hitting a wall, while Melanie Griffith's only hope is to get more Botox. He got back on his feet a bit in September, and finished the season strong, so he looks good to go in 2005. The only worry, as is typical, is the dreaded "sophmore slump." I'm not buying into it with Hafner, just as I don't buy into it with his fellow Indian Victor Martinez. They're both in the same boat with the conditions surrounding them in Cleveland, and I think they'll flourish this season The average might dip a bit to the .280 to .290 range if anything, but I woulnd't worry too much. He'll be a nice middle round draft pick by being overlooked by most drafters.

2. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins : Highs: If I'm a Twins fan, I'd pinch myself in glee over how I can have a cheap-ass owner, and yet have a glut of young talent that's cheap to have and potentially off the charts. Morneau is one of those guys. In only 280 at-bats last season, he hit 19HR and had 58RBI while holding a .271 Avg. For young hitters, the last thing to come is the average, and Morneau should improve upon that. But considering that he should double his ABs this season, you're looking at a possible 30-35HRs and 110RBI season. He went on a tear in August of last season before cooling off a little in September, but the guy's only 24 this year. Lows: Pitchers will adjust to him quicker than he'll adjust to pitchers. There's going to be struggles at times for him this season, but he's too good to struggle for long. Don't get your panties in a twist if he's slow to start off the season, or if he slumps somewhere in the middle of the season. Patience, my friend. Patience.

3. Richie Sexson - Seattle Mariners : Highs: Injured in 2004, he's being forgotten by many fantasy drafters in 2005 because of it. He averaged 40HRs the previous three seasons before he became injured in 2004, and was good for over 100RBI in those seasons as well. Playing in a revamped lineup for Seattle, he should be back to his banging ways. Only injury should slow him down. Lows: Seattle's Safeco Field isn't the greatest park for a power hitter, but the bombs Sexson hits typically aren't HR jobs that just scrape over the wall. It'll be his forst season back in the American League since 2000 when he was with Cleveland. It migth take him some time to adjust to the pitchers he hasn't seen in awhile, and it might take some time for him to get his swing down after missing so much of last season. He doesn't have the greatest average in the world --- he's the poor man's Jim Thome. But he just turned 30, so his numbers should still hold up. Unless injury hits him again, expect a season of around .270/35+HRs/110RBI.

Duds:
1. Carlos Delgado - Florida Marlins : Highs: Turns 33 years old in June, and was always a shoo-in for 35 to 45 HRs and anywhere from 110 to 145RBI. Last season, he came up short of cracking 100RBI for the first time since 1997. Injury helped in that regard. A solid Marlins lineup and getting away from the Blue Jays headache should help. Lows: 3 out of the last 4, and 4 out of the last 6 seasons have had Delgado's average dip below his career averge of .282. As mentioned before, the first thing to go for a power hitter is his average. Delgado's average in 2004 was the lowest it's been since 1997. He's capable of rebounding in a big way this season, but considering the other possibilites available at first base, I'd look elsewhere to avoid any potential headaches.

2. Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox : Highs: Im a huge fan of Konerko's playing ability, and people mocked me last season when I was high on him after his struggles in 2003. He put up career highs by a mile in HRs and RBI in 2004, hitting 41HR and 117RBI. Lows: That said, he doesn't have Magglio Ordonez or Carlos Lee in the lineup with him any longer, and by nature he should come back down to earth a little this season. He still could have a 25+HR season, and 90+ RBI, and his average will still hold around a .270 average. But when two big bats leave the lineup, what incentive do picthers have to go after Konerko now? There's some young talent there for the White Sox, but the only reason Konerko is a Dud is because he should fall back to earth a little this season --- if anything.

Other qualitry options at first base:
1. Aubrey Huff - Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Highs: 100+RBI the past two seasons, qualifies at 1B/3B/OF in many fantasy leagues (don't undervalue having a player who plays multiple positions), and holds a solid average. Lows: People are down on Huff because he had a HORRIBLE April last season, batting .191with only 3HRs and 7RBI. That first impression turned many people off on him, but they forget that Huff went on a tear for the next 5 months. In May he batted .303, and in August he had a God-like .385 average. Like a beautiful woman coming out of the bathroom with toilet paper stuck to her shoe, people can't shake the first impression that Huff was a bust last season, solely based upon April's stats. When you consider how he ended up with a .297/29HR/104RBI season in 2004, he was hot for 5 months of the season, and has Carl Crawford ahead of him in the lineup to drive in all season long. Draft him without worry.

2. Mark Teixeira - Texas Rangers : Highs: Young - only 25 right after opening day - and getting better all the time.38HR and 112 RBI last season, he gets overlooked by the more well-known hitters at first base. The top of the Rangers lineup is scary, and he's just one component, and he's got a pretty friendly homefield to hit in as well. Lows: Was injured early in April last season, struggled in May, was hot for the summer, and cooled off in September. He'll have a little roller-coaster effect to him, as many young hitters have. If you don't draft him, feel free to try to tarde from him from an impatient owner when Tex hits a little slump. When he bounces out of a slump, he bounces out of a slump. He's the Teri Hatcher of baseball.

3. Adam Dunn - Cincinnatti Reds : Highs: 25 Years old, can hit the ball to Utah from Cincy when he crushes one, and has all the power in his little pinky that Barry Bonds takes the "cream" anbd the "clear" for to attain. Lows: Swiiiiiing, and a miss, strike three. Let's just say Dunn enjoys the strikeout. Don't draft him if your league has a category for strikeouts. He walks a ton, and like many batters that take a lot of pitches, he also strikes out a bit as well. His On-base percentage is fantastic, but his batting average is sluggish because of his Ks. If he can cut down his Ks by a good 30 to 50 or more, his average should climb nicely. He's also being asked to steal a bit more this season, so it's not unreasonable to see him steal 20 bases as well, which is rare for a first baseman. Also qualifies in the OF in many leagues. Just a risk with regards to his ability to harness his talent. If he can improve, you're looking at a monster. If not, you're looking at a lower than desired average on your hands.

4. Derrek Lee - Chicago Cubs : Highs: A model of consistency, if not eye-bulging numbers. Always good for a few stolen bases, 30 or so HRs, 90 or so RBI, and a .270 average. Lows: Never had a 100RBI season, and will never blow you away with his overall stats. He'll probably be drafted too high for the stats he'll offer --- around the 6th or 7th round.

Others:
1. Mike Piazza - New York Mets : Best days behind him...look at what I said about Posada in the catchers section...
2. Phil Nevin - San Diego Padres : My god, can the guy ever stay healthy?
3. Sean Casey - Cincinnatti Reds : Career year last season. The rest of his career states otherwise what to expect from him.
4. Shawn Green - Arizona Diamondbacks : Ummm...yeah. Let's not draft him unless we need a backup at first, okay?

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Deepers, and Duds for Catcher...

2005-03-08T12:22:00.000-05:00

Over the course of spring training, I'll cover every position on the field with my fantasy sleeper, deepers and duds and studs. "Sleepers" and "duds" and "studs" should be self-explanatory, but the term "deepers" would refer to players who will need some luck to break out this season, beyond your typical sleeper. I won't cover them as much, but when needs to get some attention, I'll make note of him.

First off, I'll cover catchers. In my opinion, it's the thinnest position, and you've got two rationales with how you attack this position in your draft. You either aim high and take the sure thing (of which there are very few), or sit back and grab a bum in the late rounds. I don't see much point if drafting a middle-of-the-pack catcher, of which many drafters seem to do.

Studs:
1. Victor Martinez - Cleveland Indians : Highs: Obviously, Martinez exploded last year, though he was hyped coming up through the farm system. He has a few things going for him: he's still young - his body hasn't caught nearly as many innings as most other catchers; he plays in a hot, young line-up that should tear the cover off the ball in 2005; and he should only get better. He's the only catcher that I feel confident in driving in over 100 RBI this season. Lows: typical fear of sophmore slump which happens more than people would assume. Martinez is too good a talent to suffer too badly from that, and playing for a former catcher as his manager (Eric Wedge) should help ease him through any typical sophmore struggles. Also, playing with so many other young players on Cleveland should also help pull him through any hiccups he might encounter.

2. Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins : Highs: Almost qualifies as a sleeper. All the talent in the world, but also all the bad luck to go along with it. It's not a good thing when people know you almost as much for your constant injuries as they do for your talent. He's becoming the Grant Hill of MLB. He has all the potential to put up a season as good or better than what Martinez did last year for Cleveland --- but his constant struggle with injuries (his knee mostly - a horrible thing for a catcher) should lower his numbers. If you want to draft him, always make sure you draft a quality "bum" at the end of your draft in case he pulls another 3 month DL stint. He can hit 30+ homers and drive in 100+ with a solid enough lineup in Minnesota, but we need to see him maintain his health before we see those kind of numbers. Lows: Just read half of what I wrote in the Highs section. He's a massive injury risk. He's a classic "high risk/high reward" type player. They can burn you if you put too much stock in them. The question you have to ask in your draft is whether you want to risk it. As Dirty Harry said, "Do you feel lucky, Punk? Well, do you?" If you do, go for it. But don't be shocked if he's out for long stretches during the season. A tough knee injury is tough to shake for a catcher.

Sleepers:
1.: Jason Varitek - Boston Red Sox : Highs: Despite his pretty well known name and reputation, he's undervalued by most fantasy players. He plays in the best line-up in baseball, plays in a solid park for his switch-hitting talents - and not counting for his broken elbow season in 2001 - his batting average has increased every year since 2000. Some point to his age (33) as to reason to worry for his decline, as happens with many catchers. Yet, many forget that he was a back-up to Scott Hatteberg the first couple seasons he played in Boston, and that he missed the majority of 2001 with a broken elbow (from diving for a baseball...not a repitition injury), which means his body has caught a great many fewer innings than many catchers his age. Considering that, he should offer up a solid average of around .275 to .295, 18-23 HRs and 75-85RBI, without worry of injury -- which is massively important when referring to catchers. He'll also swipe about 8 to 10 bases, which from a catcher is just icing on the cake. Lows: He can be streaky. He can go on huge tears, and then slump for a couple weeks. If you don't get Varitek in your draft, you might want to wait until he hits a slump and propose a trade to his unhappy owner in your league when his value will be lower. He always bounces out of his slumps with huge, white-hot streaks, and you'll reap the benefits. His age is mildly high for a catcher, but as noted in the Highs section, his body has taken on fewer innings than average, so you shouldn't worry too much.

2. Ramon Hernandez - San Diego Padres : Highs: The guy plays under the radar in almost every fantasy league. He's only 28 (turns 29 in May), and put up .276/18HR/63RBI in only 384 ABs. (Starting catchers can have as many as 100 to 150 more ABs --- and if they do a little DH-ing, they can have 200 more ABs. Look at Javy lopez to see someone who has 200 more ABs than Hernandez.) The Padres have a blossoming lineup that should improve somewhat over last year - if Nevin and Klesko and Giles can remain healthy. In 2003 with Oakland, he had 21 HRs and 28 RBI with a .273 avg with more ABs. He's a solid enough later round draft pick for a catcher. Lows: Plays in a horrible park for hitters, one of the worst in MLB. Petco Park alone will take away a couple HRs and a dozen RBI from him. If you're in a custom league that uses doubles as a category, Petco can help you there with Hernandez. And he does have a team that's been filled with injury-plagued players. That puts more of a burden on Hernandez to perform at times, which can hurt his overall numbers. If you believe the Padres can at least maintain some semblance of health in their lineup, go with Ramon. If not, you might want to look elsewhere.

Duds:
1. Jorge Posada - New York Yankees : Highs: Still a solid enough hitter, with potential to easily get to the 20 HR mark, and 75 RBI. His average is going to start to drop a bit, probably below .270 this season when all is said and done. He plays in a solid lineup --- though it's getting older and worn down --- and plays in a friendly ballpark for his switch-hitting styles. Lows: I used to be huge on Posada, but his time is starting to pass. Few catchers can keep it up over a long period of time. Many "experts" and fantasy players alike think of Posada as the guy who hit 30HRs and had over 100 RBI in 2003. History shows that catchers are apt to have that one or two "up-tick year" in their career, and that was Posada's. If you're a "Moneyball" believer, you believe catchers reach a quick plateau and quickly fall off in the following years. In 2004, his HRs dropped off by 9 from 2003, and his RBI total dropped by 20. It should drop again, though to a lesser extent, this season.

2. Javy Lopez - Baltimore Orioles : Highs: He still has a great power swing, still hits in one of the best park for power numbers, and he still has some power hitters in the lineup with him. It offers some protection and definitely helps. For a catcher, he'll still offer you some solid numbers - but...Lows: for where you'll most likely have to draft him, he's not worth it. Overvalued is an udnerstatement. Braves fans will remember Javy hitting 11 HRs twice in a season and 17 in another just as much as they remember the 34 and 43 HR seasons. He's turning 35 at the end of this season, and now that he's got a year under his new money-laden contract, he might sit back and revert to the days of 15 HRs and .285 average. Again, for the round you'd have to draft him, he's not worth it.

3. Jason Kendall - Oakland A's : Highs: He's always good for a solid average. Only twice in his 9 seasons has he averaged less than a .300 average. (.294 in 1997 and .266 in 2001.) I'm not sure if there's a guy who's still getting by on his past and his name more than he is. Lows: You can't underestimate base stealing from a catcher --- just look at Varitek stealing 10 bases last year. But Kendall's days of swiping 20 bases a year are over. He's playing for a "Moneyball" team, which stresses not giving up outs. He's never had a power stroke, never had much power, and plays in a fairly weak lineup in Oakland. All you can hope from Kendall is a solid average from your catcher spot. Everything - from runs, to HRs, to RBI, to even now SBs, won't happen much unless Kendall has a 1 in 1000 year. Avoid him and draft someone else at bargain rates.

Other options available to draft in later rounds:

A.J. Pierzynski: Solid enough numbers for a guy you can draft in anywhere from the 18th to 21st round. Good for anywhere from a .275 to .310 average and 10 HRs and 70 RBI. Plays in relatively weak lineup, but should get some chanes at RBI.

Mike Lieberthal: Will never reach the numbers he offered up in 1999, but with a solid Phillies lineup, and productive park, he's good for a .280 avg/15 HRs/and anywhere from 60 to 80 RBI, depending on health and how well the rest of the lineup does. Injury risk hurts his value drastically, but been healthy for 3 seasons now.

Paul Lo Duca: Qaulifies in the OF now, though you should never resort to using him there. Still gets by on his one break out season awhile back, but plays in an imroved Marlins lineup, and can offer you stats at catcher that won't stress you out. Draft him and relax if you get him. But some will draft him much to high for his value. Don't take him before the 14th or 15th round.

Deepers:

Just one...

Miguel Olivo - Seattle Mariners : They're called "Deepers" for a reason. He's got great potential, but hasn't put it all together yet. Strikes out too much, allows too many passed balls, which forces him out of games for a steady glove. Has some speed (always look for some SBs from a catcher if you can) and a little pop. If he can ever put it all together, he could approach .290/18/85 with 15 SBs. You shouldn't draft him, but keep an eye out for him, and see he can start approaching what potential he has. He can be a top 10 catcher someday.